Who will win North Carolina?
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  Who will win North Carolina?		 « previous next »
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Question: Who will win NC?
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Hillary Clinton (D)
#2
Donald Trump (R)
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Author Topic: Who will win North Carolina?  (Read 2203 times)
Senator-elect Spark
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« on: October 30, 2016, 09:15:37 AM »
It really is a toss-up this cycle due to changing demographics. Romney won here in 2012, Obama won it in 2008 due to high black turnout. Does Clinton have a chance here? I find it interesting that in 2000 Al Gore did not manage to win a single county in western NC. Both Gore & Kerry performed poorly here, and I sincerely doubt that Hillary will receive the same amount of turnout as Obama.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #1 on: October 30, 2016, 09:23:46 AM »
The one that's led nearly every single poll for the past few months and has a sizeable early vote lead.
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #2 on: October 30, 2016, 09:26:02 AM »
Clinton is the prohibitive favorite.  Trump has better shots in Iowa, Ohio, and even Florida at this point.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #3 on: October 30, 2016, 09:26:59 AM »
Impossible to say at this point, despite the current polling advantage for Hillary.

She could still go the way of Kay Hagan there, but really anything is possible.

Trump could mobilize strongly on election day, which would erase her polling lead (Trump voters are exactly the people who are not voting early, but on election day (=> see FPÖ-voters in Austria).
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #4 on: October 30, 2016, 09:29:32 AM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on October 30, 2016, 09:26:59 AM

Trump could mobilize strongly on election day, which would erase her polling lead (Trump voters are exactly the people who are not voting early, but on election day (=> see FPÖ-voters in Austria).

And who's in a better position to mobilize voters in a single day than the worst run ground game in modern presidential history?
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Horus
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« Reply #5 on: October 30, 2016, 09:31:28 AM »
Trump by around 2 points.
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darthebearnc
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« Reply #6 on: October 30, 2016, 09:34:10 AM »
Trump hasn't led in a non-internal poll here for more than a month. Meanwhile, Hillary has been ahead in at least twenty-seven polls since then.
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Yank2133
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« Reply #7 on: October 30, 2016, 10:28:15 AM »
It is hilarious how Trump supporters make their predictions based on no evidence whatsoever.
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politicallefty
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« Reply #8 on: October 30, 2016, 10:30:20 AM »
I feel a strange sense of confidence that Hillary will win NC by at least 3%.
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Green Line
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« Reply #9 on: October 30, 2016, 10:32:13 AM »
Clinton by a point.
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Hammy
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« Reply #10 on: October 30, 2016, 11:38:17 AM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on October 30, 2016, 09:26:59 AM
Impossible to say at this point, despite the current polling advantage for Hillary.

2014 isn't really a good year to compare anything to because we had near record low turnout.

I think Clinton will win the state, but it will be <2% margin.
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Xing
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« Reply #11 on: October 30, 2016, 11:39:32 AM »
Clinton's lead in NC polls has been narrow, but consistent. Hillary by 2-3%.
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BlueSwan
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« Reply #12 on: October 30, 2016, 11:42:12 AM »
Quote from: Mehmentum on October 30, 2016, 09:26:02 AM
Clinton is the prohibitive favorite.  Trump has better shots in Iowa, Ohio, and even Florida at this point.
Agreed, even though people would have called you crazy if you had said that 6 months ago. North Carolina to the left of Iowa, Ohio and Florida just sounds off, but it appears to almost certainly be the case with Iowa and Ohio, and possibly with Florida.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #13 on: October 30, 2016, 12:48:46 PM »
Quote from: Hammy on October 30, 2016, 11:38:17 AM
...... I think Clinton will win the state, but it will be <2% margin.
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TarHeelDem
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« Reply #14 on: October 30, 2016, 01:02:09 PM »
Clinton by 2.5 or 3.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #15 on: October 30, 2016, 01:03:07 PM »
Right now Trump is trailing by 2%/3% according to 538/Upshot. If FBI scandal plays out well, Trump has a descent shot 50/50. Without NC he is almost done.
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Ljube
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« Reply #16 on: October 30, 2016, 01:09:25 PM »
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Cashew
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« Reply #17 on: October 30, 2016, 01:15:34 PM »
Quote from: Castro on October 30, 2016, 09:23:46 AM
The one that's led nearly every single poll for the past few months and has a sizeable early vote lead.
And a decent ground game.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #18 on: October 30, 2016, 01:16:40 PM »
it depends.....either the upshot is wrong about FL or NC....both would be strange.
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RosettaStoned
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« Reply #19 on: October 30, 2016, 01:22:27 PM »

 ^ This.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #20 on: October 30, 2016, 01:37:18 PM »
North Carolina is the feel good story of the year - why is Clinton doing so well there compared to other swing states?
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #21 on: October 30, 2016, 01:37:48 PM »
Quote from: Maxwell on October 30, 2016, 01:37:18 PM
North Carolina is the feel good story of the year - why is Clinton doing so well there compared to other swing states?

HB2 + Demographic changes
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Cashew
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« Reply #22 on: October 30, 2016, 01:39:32 PM »
Quote from: Arch on October 30, 2016, 01:37:48 PM
Quote from: Maxwell on October 30, 2016, 01:37:18 PM
North Carolina is the feel good story of the year - why is Clinton doing so well there compared to other swing states?

HB2 + Demographic changes
Black turnout is still concerning though.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #23 on: October 30, 2016, 01:42:30 PM »
Quote from: Maxwell on October 30, 2016, 01:37:18 PM
North Carolina is the feel good story of the year - why is Clinton doing so well there compared to other swing states?

if she really is.....

- college-educated

- suburban

- women
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TarHeelDem
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« Reply #24 on: October 30, 2016, 01:48:08 PM »
Quote from: Maxwell on October 30, 2016, 01:37:18 PM
North Carolina is the feel good story of the year - why is Clinton doing so well there compared to other swing states?

Because the state GOP is a national embarrassment and the state is tired of looking so backwards all the damn time.
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