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  MN-KSTP/Survey USA - Clinton +10
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Author Topic: MN-KSTP/Survey USA - Clinton +10  (Read 2191 times)
GeorgiaModerate
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« on: October 28, 2016, 07:39:35 pm »

Clinton 49
Trump 39
Johnson 5
Stein 2

MOE 3.9%

Same poll last month showed Clinton+7 (46-39).

This is from a tweet by Tom Hauser of KSTP (https://twitter.com/thauserkstp/status/792138830065176576).  I haven't seen a link to the poll yet.
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Southern Delegate matthew27
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« Reply #1 on: October 28, 2016, 07:40:41 pm »

Awesome!
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Edgar Suit Larry
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« Reply #2 on: October 28, 2016, 07:53:29 pm »

If the Donald wants to spend $$ here...
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Maxwell
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« Reply #3 on: October 28, 2016, 07:53:41 pm »

Ouch. R.I.P. Trump.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #4 on: October 28, 2016, 08:56:48 pm »

So, it really does look like Clinton is currently leading in WI by 7-9%, and MI by low double-digits.

Hard to see otherwise, even if there is a major "Rural Swing" towards the Republicans in MN.
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ReapSow
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« Reply #5 on: October 28, 2016, 09:30:12 pm »

But the Trump campaign told me Minnesota is and isn't a toss-up and even published battleground maps both with and without the Land of 10,000 Lakes. It's awful bad when you can't even believe the Trump campaign anymore :/
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The love that set me free
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« Reply #6 on: October 28, 2016, 09:31:46 pm »



Donald Trump (R-NY) / Michael Pence (R-IN) - 300 EVs, (47.1%)
Hillary Clinton (D-NY) / Tim Kaine (D-VA) - 238 EVs, (48.4%)
Gary Johnson (L-NM) / William Weld (L-MA) - 0 EVs, (4%)
Evan McMullin (I-UT) / Mindy Finn (I-TX) - 0 EVs, (1.1%)
Jill Stein (G-MA) / Ajamu Baraka (G-IL) - 0 EVs, (0.3%)

My gut says Trump will now win. I think MN, NH, & PA are a bit bold. and could easily go for Clinton.

But let me explain:

MN- Dissatisfied with Obamacare, Midwestern, progressive (They won't fall for Hillary), and White.
PA- Turnout will be high in the Pittsburgh metropolitan area and Central PA, while Trump will win a few counties (Bucks, Lehigh, & Luzerne) in the East. Turnout will be lower in Philadelphia and among AAs overall. This should be enough for Trump to flip the state.
NH- White, Hillary's primary loss, and just my own intuition. I'll probably be wrong on this one though.

Utah will be close and I think Trump will narrowly win the state against McMullin & Clinton splitting the vote enough.

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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #7 on: October 28, 2016, 09:34:13 pm »

Very nice lead.
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Hammy
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« Reply #8 on: October 28, 2016, 10:06:57 pm »

Anybody still want to try and claim Minnesota will flip?
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Ljube
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« Reply #9 on: October 28, 2016, 10:11:30 pm »

Anybody still want to try and claim Minnesota will flip?

No.
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Worried Italian Progressive
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« Reply #10 on: October 29, 2016, 01:32:53 am »

"Dissatisfied with Obamacare, progressive and white"
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CocaineMitch'sCartel
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« Reply #11 on: October 29, 2016, 01:39:50 am »

If Trump is getting BLOWN OUT amongst the hard working voters of MN, it's over. Sad!
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Dave Leip
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« Reply #12 on: October 29, 2016, 10:36:35 am »

New Poll: Minnesota President by Survey USA on 2016-10-26

Summary: D: 49%, R: 39%, U: 3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Snowguy716
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« Reply #13 on: October 29, 2016, 06:40:34 pm »

The internals on this look all messed up.. especially age...

65+ is Hillary's strongest age group by a long shot?  Yet 50-64 year olds give Trump a 10 point lead and Millennials give him 36% to Clinton's 49%?

This always seems to happen with SUSA in MN.

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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #14 on: October 29, 2016, 06:42:39 pm »

The internals on this look all messed up.. especially age...
This always seems to happen with SUSA in MN.

That's SUSA everywhere all the time. The crosstabs never make any sense but their top lines are always pretty good.

Anyway, great and unsurprising news!
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #15 on: October 29, 2016, 07:21:05 pm »

The internals on this look all messed up.. especially age...
This always seems to happen with SUSA in MN.

That's SUSA everywhere all the time. The crosstabs never make any sense but their top lines are always pretty good.

Anyway, great and unsurprising news!

You have to wonder if they put the wrong labels on their spreadsheet rows. Smiley
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #16 on: October 29, 2016, 07:26:51 pm »

The internals on this look all messed up.. especially age...
This always seems to happen with SUSA in MN.

That's SUSA everywhere all the time. The crosstabs never make any sense but their top lines are always pretty good.

Anyway, great and unsurprising news!

You have to wonder if they put the wrong labels on their spreadsheet rows. Smiley

Yes SUSA crosstabs always suck..... but still it is amusing to look the voter breakdown in California by Motorcycle owners for example to provide us with interesting "insights" into the current state of the GE Pres race.... btw I think the last poll of Cali that I saw showed it a virtual tie among Motorcycle owners. Wink
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Snowguy716
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« Reply #17 on: October 29, 2016, 08:11:41 pm »

Well there were some interesting things in the poll... the majority of people support the SW Light Rail line and yet a plurality thought it was good that the legislature didn't fund it...

Franken, Dayton, Obama, and Klobuchar all have net positive ratings (especially the senators.. and then especially Amy)

It seems right.. but yeah.. the crosstabs are wonky.
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BetoBro
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« Reply #18 on: October 29, 2016, 11:55:39 pm »

Please keep wasting money here, Republicans.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #19 on: October 30, 2016, 05:03:14 pm »

Minnesota is so stable in its voting that it would be R+2 for a Democrat winning 60% of the national vote. It was about 50-50 in 1972 and 1984; it wasn't a particularly strong win for Obama either time.  It was one of the two worst states for Nixon in 1972 and Reagan in 1984 (see also Massachusetts).

Minnesota is one of the least elastic states in its voting for President since 1960, and went for Ike perhaps out of disdain for Southern racists who had come to dominate the GOP in national politics.   
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