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  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
  CA, Sacramento State, Clinton +36 (4-way), OCT. 7-13, 622LV
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Author Topic: CA, Sacramento State, Clinton +36 (4-way), OCT. 7-13, 622LV  (Read 2784 times)
Erich Maria Remarque
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« on: October 30, 2016, 02:04:35 pm »

http://www.csus.edu/isr/calspeaks/surveys/october%202016%20election%20topline.pdf

OCT. 7-13, 622   LV

61% Hillary Clinton, Democratic Party
25% Donald Trump, Republican Party
4%   Gary Johnson, Libertarian Party
3%   Jill Stein, Green Party
8%   Other/Undecided/Donít Know



Quote
Nate Silver ‏@NateSilver538  3m3 minutes ago
Clinton's lead in California keeps expanding ó which could yield an Electoral College / popular vote split. http://53eig.ht/2eieaZB

#Atlas      hate
#Clickbait Nate
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Arch
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« Reply #1 on: October 30, 2016, 02:05:18 pm »

25% in CA, hahaha.
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Joshua
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« Reply #2 on: October 30, 2016, 02:06:55 pm »

Backed up by the GOP vote-by-mail collapse this year.
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Buh her emails!
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« Reply #3 on: October 30, 2016, 02:08:02 pm »

Remember when Trump said California was in play?
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1J
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« Reply #4 on: October 30, 2016, 02:08:47 pm »

"TRUMP is going to flip California!!!"-StatesPoll
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Maxwell
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« Reply #5 on: October 30, 2016, 02:10:27 pm »

#failinNate

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Ljube
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« Reply #6 on: October 30, 2016, 02:12:17 pm »

Come on.

California is going to be a disaster for Trump.
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #7 on: October 30, 2016, 02:14:23 pm »

If only Trump would win because then they would secede and Trump would support it. This state needs to get out. As bad as it gets.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #8 on: October 30, 2016, 02:14:53 pm »

Issa, Knight and Valadao must be sweating like DOGS!
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Maxwell
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« Reply #9 on: October 30, 2016, 02:15:54 pm »

To Trumps credit:

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Jacobin American
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« Reply #10 on: October 30, 2016, 02:23:58 pm »

California proves, yet again, why I was right to make it one of my favorite states. True FF state.
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #11 on: October 30, 2016, 02:25:11 pm »

Is Nate's stuff really doing so bad that he needs to clickbait like this? What a fall from grace journalistically.
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Edgar Suit Larry
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« Reply #12 on: October 30, 2016, 02:26:26 pm »

California will be more of an Estonia or Latvia than a Belarus or Kazakhstan when Trump's Nationalistic pull causes the nation to start to fracture like what happened in the 80s in the USSR.
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Congressman Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #13 on: October 30, 2016, 02:51:55 pm »

Will there be any R's in the CA House delegation in 10 years?

Yes. CA-01 was 57% Romney, CA-04 was 58% Romney, CA-08 was 56% Romney, CA-22 was 57% Romney, CA-23 was 62% Romney, CA-42 was 57% Romney, CA-50 was 60% Romney. All of those are unflippable. CA-45 and CA-48 were 55% Romney and thus are very close to unflippable. But with only these seats going R, the breakdown would be 44-9 D (or 46-7 if CA-45/48 were flipped), which is a pretty significant change from the current 39-14 D breakdown.
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politicallefty
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« Reply #14 on: October 30, 2016, 02:58:07 pm »

California will be more of an Estonia or Latvia than a Belarus or Kazakhstan when Trump's Nationalistic pull causes the nation to start to fracture like what happened in the 80s in the USSR.

The population and significance of California is far more than the Baltic states to Russia. With that said, I'm seriously wanting California to declare its independence as a new nation. A new California Republic would be greater than anything California could achieve as a state.
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Interlocutor
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« Reply #15 on: October 30, 2016, 03:03:56 pm »
« Edited: October 30, 2016, 03:10:44 pm by Interlocutor »

New county predictions:




Also, they polled Prop 54 but didn't bother to poll Prop 61?

Ah who cares. Congrats Congressman Applegate!
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #16 on: October 30, 2016, 03:15:53 pm »

And this is why the Electoral College actually helps Trump.
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PresidentSamTilden
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« Reply #17 on: October 30, 2016, 03:17:37 pm »

Remember when Trump said California was in play?

So dumb. He got less votes WINNING his primary in a landslide than Bernie Sanders got LOSING his. And it wasn't even close.
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Tulsi "Both sides" Gabbard
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« Reply #18 on: October 30, 2016, 03:19:54 pm »

California will be more of an Estonia or Latvia than a Belarus or Kazakhstan when Trump's Nationalistic pull causes the nation to start to fracture like what happened in the 80s in the USSR.

The population and significance of California is far more than the Baltic states to Russia. With that said, I'm seriously wanting California to declare its independence as a new nation. A new California Republic would be greater than anything California could achieve as a state.
Maybe when people realize how underrepresented they are in the senate?
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Jacobin American
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« Reply #19 on: October 30, 2016, 03:34:53 pm »

California will be more of an Estonia or Latvia than a Belarus or Kazakhstan when Trump's Nationalistic pull causes the nation to start to fracture like what happened in the 80s in the USSR.

The population and significance of California is far more than the Baltic states to Russia. With that said, I'm seriously wanting California to declare its independence as a new nation. A new California Republic would be greater than anything California could achieve as a state.
Maybe when people realize how underrepresented they are in the senate?

The fact that a state of nearly 40,000,000 has as many Senators as a state of 600,000 is a testament to how deeply flawed and undemocratic our upper chamber of the legislative branch really is.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #20 on: October 30, 2016, 03:41:08 pm »

California will be more of an Estonia or Latvia than a Belarus or Kazakhstan when Trump's Nationalistic pull causes the nation to start to fracture like what happened in the 80s in the USSR.

The population and significance of California is far more than the Baltic states to Russia. With that said, I'm seriously wanting California to declare its independence as a new nation. A new California Republic would be greater than anything California could achieve as a state.
Maybe when people realize how underrepresented they are in the senate?

The fact that a state of nearly 40,000,000 has as many Senators as a state of 600,000 is a testament to how deeply flawed and undemocratic our upper chamber of the legislative branch really is.

What was the difference back when the constitution was written between the most and least populous states?
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« Reply #21 on: October 30, 2016, 03:43:32 pm »

And this is why the Electoral College actually helps Trump.

Not to mention the fact that TX will certainly be closer this year, even if Trump still wins it easily.
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Alcon
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« Reply #22 on: October 30, 2016, 03:50:38 pm »

Yet again, I don't understand why Silver is getting so much crap for this.  He was wrong about Trump in the primaries, because he attached too much certainty to the lack of historical precedent for Trump.  It's very hard to calculate "unknown unknowns," and he fessed up to his errors doing so.  

But this isn't a case with "unknown unknowns."  This is the simple mathematical reality that, if Clinton gets a strong swing in California and Texas, that means a race with an even PV may have a very Trump-friendly electoral college make-up.  We're talking hundreds of thousands of votes between those two states.  He's not claiming this is a certainty or even likelihood, but something to consider, and it is.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #23 on: October 30, 2016, 03:53:20 pm »

I continue to see TV commercials here in California that are pro-trump, vote for trump.
I laugh every time.
Don't get it.
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ExtremeConservative
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« Reply #24 on: October 30, 2016, 03:58:34 pm »

Also, this poll increased Trump's chance of winning on 538's PP model from 22.9 to 23.3%.  I guess it is because there was already no chance for Trump to win CA and it shows that Clinton will be wasting a ton of votes in CA.
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