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  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
  CA, Sacramento State, Clinton +36 (4-way), OCT. 7-13, 622LV (search mode)
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Author Topic: CA, Sacramento State, Clinton +36 (4-way), OCT. 7-13, 622LV  (Read 2799 times)
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Posts: 30,923
United States

« on: October 30, 2016, 03:50:38 pm »

Yet again, I don't understand why Silver is getting so much crap for this.  He was wrong about Trump in the primaries, because he attached too much certainty to the lack of historical precedent for Trump.  It's very hard to calculate "unknown unknowns," and he fessed up to his errors doing so.  

But this isn't a case with "unknown unknowns."  This is the simple mathematical reality that, if Clinton gets a strong swing in California and Texas, that means a race with an even PV may have a very Trump-friendly electoral college make-up.  We're talking hundreds of thousands of votes between those two states.  He's not claiming this is a certainty or even likelihood, but something to consider, and it is.
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