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Author Topic: KY-Cygnal/RunSwitch: Paul +10  (Read 1060 times)
Joni Ernst 20∞
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« on: October 31, 2016, 09:31:37 am »

52% Rand Paul (R, inc.)
42% Jim Gray (D)

GOP leads +13 on state house generic ballot

https://twitter.com/ScottJenningsKY
« Last Edit: October 31, 2016, 09:35:34 am by TN Volunteer »Logged

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Countdown timer to Joni Ernst's victory speech
Figueira
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« Reply #1 on: October 31, 2016, 09:39:04 am »

Paul will win, but by an underwhelming margin. Probably more than this, though.
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Young Texan
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« Reply #2 on: October 31, 2016, 09:50:20 am »

I think Paul will improve slightly on his 2010 victory maybe with 58% or 57%.
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Castro
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« Reply #3 on: October 31, 2016, 09:53:35 am »

Running 14 points behind Trump? Tsk tsk.
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ExtremeConservative
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« Reply #4 on: October 31, 2016, 10:05:06 am »

Also, for all his supposed appeal to young voters, Paul is losing them, while Trump is winning them by about 30 points!
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Can we have a real Christian conservative president instead of having our party go down the road of populism and nationalism, with strains of liberal-tarianism?  Let the loss of the House be a lesson that we need to return to the party of Marco Rubio, Nikki Haley, Tim Scott, Rick Santorum, and Bill Lee.  We need a bold and optimistic vision for this country that embraces Christian values!

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« Reply #5 on: October 31, 2016, 10:13:28 am »

Also, for all his supposed appeal to young voters, Paul is losing them, while Trump is winning them by about 30 points!

Maybe Trump can brag about that, although he'd have to go visit Senator Paul in DC, a city I doubt he'll be in very much. Tongue

Really he should be winning by more, but as long as he wins I'm fine.
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« Reply #6 on: October 31, 2016, 10:28:22 am »

TIGHTENING!!!!
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yeah_93
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« Reply #7 on: October 31, 2016, 10:32:52 am »

If Paul wins by a closer margin than in 2010, it would be pretty disappointing.
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #8 on: October 31, 2016, 11:02:00 am »

Also, for all his supposed appeal to young voters, Paul is losing them, while Trump is winning them by about 30 points!
Probably due to the Democrat being openly gay.
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« Reply #9 on: October 31, 2016, 11:11:54 am »

Hopefully this will bring back his odds in 538 to something realistic.
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Spenstar
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« Reply #10 on: October 31, 2016, 11:16:12 am »

Hopefully this will bring back his odds in 538 to something realistic.

It did. Went from 73% to 87.8%: the exact same odds as the GOP has of holding onto the seat in Louisiana
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Xing
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« Reply #11 on: October 31, 2016, 12:42:49 pm »

Paul will obviously win, but wow, that's a pathetic margin for a state like KY.
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Bevinevitable
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« Reply #12 on: October 31, 2016, 02:20:25 pm »

Paul will obviously win, but wow, that's a pathetic margin for a state like KY.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #13 on: October 31, 2016, 03:01:43 pm »

Kentucky isn't necessarily as Republican downballot as it is in the presidential race. +10 is not a "pathetic margin". Paul's seat was competitive in 1998 and 2004, when Bunning held it, and seemed to be competitive at the start of the race in 2010 too. In 2008, McConnell only won by 6. If Paul would win by 8 then I'd call that a "pathetic margin", but 10? Nah. And it will probably become more anyway.
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« Reply #14 on: October 31, 2016, 03:09:20 pm »

Gray won't outperform Conway's performance last year. Don't get your hopes up.
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