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Author Topic: NH-Journal Poll - Trump +2!  (Read 1573 times)
alomas
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« on: October 31, 2016, 09:57:46 am »

Donald Trump - 44.6%
Hillary Clinton - 42.9%
Gary Johnson - 4.4%
Jill Stein - 1.8%
Evan McMullin - 0.9%
others - 2.1%
undecided - 3.5%

Trump leads Clinton 47.1% to 45.5% in a two-way race.

MoE - 7.4, sample - 408 likely voters
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ExtremeConservative
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« Reply #1 on: October 31, 2016, 09:58:08 am »

In before TNVol
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Can we have a real Christian conservative president instead of having our party go down the road of populism and nationalism, with strains of liberal-tarianism?  Let the loss of the House be a lesson that we need to return to the party of Marco Rubio, Nikki Haley, Tim Scott, Rick Santorum, and Bill Lee.  We need a bold and optimistic vision for this country that embraces Christian values!

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« Reply #2 on: October 31, 2016, 09:58:49 am »

#Decimals and #NotHappening
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Castro
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« Reply #3 on: October 31, 2016, 09:59:59 am »

(((Harry Enten))) ‏@ForecasterEnten  14m14 minutes ago
Same poll that has Trump up in NH by 2... had him up 9 in July. It's landline only and was a huge outlier in July & is right now.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #4 on: October 31, 2016, 10:00:44 am »

The had Trump +9 JUL. 19-21.
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« Reply #5 on: October 31, 2016, 10:01:15 am »

Junk and the sample size is pretty small. NH turning red this cycle is not happening.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #6 on: October 31, 2016, 10:01:19 am »

I probably should have asked this a long time ago, but what is wrong with decimals?
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #7 on: October 31, 2016, 10:02:13 am »

Yep, that's Clinton +7 from July, a good result. That said, it's smarter to just toss this thing.
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« Reply #8 on: October 31, 2016, 10:02:33 am »

I probably should have asked this a long time ago, but what is wrong with decimals?

They tend to only be included by lesser quality pollsters, and the accuracy of such decimals in a normal poll with a 3 or 4 point margin of error is not great.
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« Reply #9 on: October 31, 2016, 10:03:23 am »

I probably should have asked this a long time ago, but what is wrong with decimals?

Any worthwhile pollster would know that any decimal places are essentially meaningless due to MOE.
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« Reply #10 on: October 31, 2016, 10:03:59 am »

oh ok. thanks
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« Reply #11 on: October 31, 2016, 10:09:17 am »

The sample of angry and/or nasty women is way too small. Junk poll!
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #12 on: October 31, 2016, 10:09:32 am »

I probably should have asked this a long time ago, but what is wrong with decimals?

Any worthwhile pollster would know that any decimal places are essentially meaningless due to MOE.

Sort of. The "problem" with decimals is actually related to the "problem" with daily trackers, namely, public gives to much attention to fluctuation and noise.
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« Reply #13 on: October 31, 2016, 10:10:33 am »

oh ok. thanks

You can think of it this way... imagine if an economic forecast called for a change in the deficit next year of $2,170,327.33, +/- $30,000.00 ... You'd probably (rightly) wonder why they didn't just report it as $2,170,000 in the first place.
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« Reply #14 on: October 31, 2016, 10:15:42 am »

I doubt Hillary is as low as 42%, but Trump is definitely on track to win here.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #15 on: October 31, 2016, 10:17:07 am »

I doubt Hillary is as low as 42%, but Trump is definitely on track to win here.

Sure, as he’s on track to win the whole thing and move to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue coming January.
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« Reply #16 on: October 31, 2016, 10:17:22 am »

I doubt Hillary is as low as 42%, but Trump is definitely on track to win here.

totes definitely
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Castro
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« Reply #17 on: October 31, 2016, 10:18:44 am »

I doubt Hillary is as low as 42%, but Trump is definitely on track to win here.

He has a solid shot at winning the 3rd congressional district.
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StatesPoll
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« Reply #18 on: October 31, 2016, 10:21:49 am »

Junk and the sample size is pretty small. NH turning red this cycle is not happening.

400 LV = small for states like FL/NC/PA

But 400 LV = decent sample size for 4 EV state.

and I clear remember, In here most red avatars reacted very happy with FL/PA/NC polls
which were Hillary +5% with 400~500ish LV sample size Wink

anyway with this Poll another 270 path for TRUMP.

Romney + FL + OH + IA + NC + NH + NV + ME-2 = 270 Cheesy

« Last Edit: October 31, 2016, 10:26:07 am by StatesPoll »Logged
BoAtlantis
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« Reply #19 on: October 31, 2016, 10:25:20 am »

http://www.insidesources.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/InsideSources-NH-Journal-Poll-10.31.16-a.pdf

Here is the link for breakdown.

They also acknowledge below:

"Weighting is not a silver bullet for survey bias. The sample used in this study was collected using only landline telephone numbers, and while weighting may address nonresponse bias to a great degree, sampling bias introduced by targeting landline telephone users cannot be addressed by weighting. It is well known that landline-only samples tend to be more conservative, even after appropriate weighting is applied. The results of this survey should be compared to the findings of other landline-only samples. "
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TC 25
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« Reply #20 on: October 31, 2016, 10:25:33 am »

With Colorado, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin all in play as well.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #21 on: October 31, 2016, 10:25:40 am »

Junk and the sample size is pretty small. NH turning red this cycle is not happening.

400 LV = small for states like FL/NC/PA

But 400 LV = decent sample size for 4 EV state.

and I clear remember, In here most red avatars reacted very happy with FL/PA/NC polls
which were Hillary +5% with 400~500ish LV sample size Wink

anyway with this Poll another 270 path for TRUMP.

Romney + FL + OH + IA + NC + NH + ME-2 = 270 Cheesy



In theory, sure. But your hero is still lagging behind in FL and NC. Especially NC, where Romney won. This is an absolute must-win for Mr. Drumpf unless he can’t win PA. The other ones are also pretty close. If he loses one of them, OH in particular, he’s done.
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Castro
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« Reply #22 on: October 31, 2016, 10:25:46 am »

Junk and the sample size is pretty small. NH turning red this cycle is not happening.

400 LV = small for states like FL/NC/PA

But 400 LV = decent sample size for 4 EV state.

and I clear remember, In here most red avatars reacted very happy with FL/PA/NC polls
which were Hillary +5% with 400~500ish LV sample size Wink

anyway with this Poll another 270 path for TRUMP.

Romney + FL + OH + IA + NC + NH + ME-2 = 270 Cheesy



Uh no that's 264.
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StatesPoll
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« Reply #23 on: October 31, 2016, 10:26:33 am »

Junk and the sample size is pretty small. NH turning red this cycle is not happening.

400 LV = small for states like FL/NC/PA

But 400 LV = decent sample size for 4 EV state.

and I clear remember, In here most red avatars reacted very happy with FL/PA/NC polls
which were Hillary +5% with 400~500ish LV sample size Wink

anyway with this Poll another 270 path for TRUMP.

Romney + FL + OH + IA + NC + NH + ME-2 = 270 Cheesy



Uh no that's 264.

I forgot to write NV Tongue
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Sir Mohamed
MohamedChalid
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« Reply #24 on: October 31, 2016, 10:32:06 am »

Junk and the sample size is pretty small. NH turning red this cycle is not happening.

400 LV = small for states like FL/NC/PA

But 400 LV = decent sample size for 4 EV state.

and I clear remember, In here most red avatars reacted very happy with FL/PA/NC polls
which were Hillary +5% with 400~500ish LV sample size Wink

anyway with this Poll another 270 path for TRUMP.

Romney + FL + OH + IA + NC + NH + ME-2 = 270 Cheesy



Uh no that's 264.

I forgot to write NV Tongue

CO would be another theoretical option. But it looks like NV is more realistic (at least in polls), though I don’t think that he’s going to win either of them.
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