PA - F&M College: Clinton +11 (4-way)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 12:58:24 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  PA - F&M College: Clinton +11 (4-way)
« previous next »
Pages: 1 [2]
Author Topic: PA - F&M College: Clinton +11 (4-way)  (Read 6113 times)
Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,459
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #25 on: October 31, 2016, 11:35:18 PM »

Pennsylvania hates Trump, guys.
Logged
TC 25
Rookie
**
Posts: 236
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #26 on: October 31, 2016, 11:48:12 PM »

Michigan significantly to the right of Pennsylvania? I don't buy it.
Logged
Holmes
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,719
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #27 on: October 31, 2016, 11:49:01 PM »

Not that it matters much but this poll has some strange regional results.  

1. It says Clinton wins Allegheny county by 40 points.  I grew up in the Pittsburgh area and I would bet everything I own that she wins it by 20 points or less.

2.  It says Trump is only up 15 points in central PA, Romney won this area by over 30 points and I cant see Trump doing worse.

Aside from that it looks remotely plausible although I don't really trust the 64-28 figure for SE PA either.  Romney lost what I consider SE PA outside of Philly by about 12-15 points, is Trump really going to loose it by 36 points?

It carries over to Toomey as well, he is doing almost as poorly in all of these places which makes no sense.

For what it's worth, Romney payed special attention to the Philly burbs during his campaign, and he wasn't downright toxic to college educated whites.
Logged
TarHeelDem
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,448
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #28 on: October 31, 2016, 11:53:37 PM »

Truly a beautiful poll. May the GOP never stop wasting resources in this wonderful state filled with freedom-loving people!
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,841
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #29 on: October 31, 2016, 11:57:59 PM »

Michigan significantly to the right of Pennsylvania? I don't buy it.

Well yeah, this poll is an obvious outlier. Average it and the pro-GOP outlier Remington and you likely have the true margin.
Logged
Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,459
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #30 on: November 01, 2016, 12:03:10 AM »

Michigan won't be to the right of PA because Michigan polls are always wrong and are always wrong because they are way too right-wing.
Logged
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,417
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #31 on: November 01, 2016, 12:52:34 AM »

Michigan significantly to the right of Pennsylvania? I don't buy it.

Well yeah, this poll is an obvious outlier. Average it and the pro-GOP outlier Remington and you likely have the true margin.

Agreed... it is a Uni Poll, and likely based off the backs of working college students, in order to add street cred to the Professor, with typical shoddy methodology.

Still, no reason not to through it into the hopper and average mix, and it seems to indicate the Clinton has a relatively decent lead in PA.
Logged
psychprofessor
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,293


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #32 on: November 01, 2016, 12:55:58 AM »

Michigan significantly to the right of Pennsylvania? I don't buy it.

Well yeah, this poll is an obvious outlier. Average it and the pro-GOP outlier Remington and you likely have the true margin.

Agreed... it is a Uni Poll, and likely based off the backs of working college students, in order to add street cred to the Professor, with typical shoddy methodology.

Still, no reason not to through it into the hopper and average mix, and it seems to indicate the Clinton has a relatively decent lead in PA.

Clinton's led this whole cycle, except for one Q poll months ago. I'm not counting R or D partisan polls...just reputable, live callers - only one Q poll showed Trump ahead. I think it is safe to say Trump isn't winning PA. He is not going to be able to off-set his abysmal showing in Philly and the surrounding counties.
Logged
mark_twain
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 427
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #33 on: November 01, 2016, 03:01:31 AM »


First of all, at this point it is evident that pre-Comey or not hardly makes a difference in the polls.

Second of all, the poll is probably to high for Clinton. Even then, however, half of this margin would be +5.5%, which is still very good for Clinton.
Logged
Podgy the Bear
mollybecky
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,968


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #34 on: November 01, 2016, 04:18:49 AM »

Let's see Joe Scarborough and his ilk discuss this one today.  They are always thrilled to talk about the one completely unknown group with a previously unheard of poll showing some sort of a Trump advantage.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #35 on: November 01, 2016, 05:11:29 AM »

Even though F&M is historically a good pollster in PA, this looks like a big outlier to me ...
Logged
SPQR
italian-boy
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,705
Italy


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #36 on: November 01, 2016, 05:27:17 AM »

Even though F&M is historically a good pollster in PA, this looks like a big outlier to me ...

But the polls showing Clinton +3 in PA are good enough to try and extrapolate a national lead of +1 or +2 ...
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #37 on: November 01, 2016, 05:30:50 AM »

Even though F&M is historically a good pollster in PA, this looks like a big outlier to me ...

But the polls showing Clinton +3 in PA are good enough to try and extrapolate a national lead of +1 or +2 ...

It simply makes more sense ...

The average of polls show that Hillary is roughly ahead by 2-3% nationally right now and because PA votes roughly as the US as a whole (slightly more DEM), it makes sense that PA is around C+3 or C+4 right now.

Certainly not C+11 though ...
Logged
PresidentSamTilden
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 507


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #38 on: November 01, 2016, 05:55:07 AM »

That's good to see. Throw her in the average
Logged
Rand
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,092
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #39 on: November 01, 2016, 06:14:54 AM »

Yet another poll to confirm what we've known all along...Putin's RINO puppet is not winning PA.
Logged
ElectionAtlas
Atlas Proginator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,628
United States


P P P
WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #40 on: November 01, 2016, 06:53:38 AM »

New Poll: Pennsylvania President by Franklin and Marshall College on 2016-10-30

Summary: D: 49%, R: 38%, U: 7%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
Logged
HillOfANight
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,459
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #41 on: November 01, 2016, 07:36:13 AM »

F&M has been very friendly to Hillary this cycle, but even given that, WOW!

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

Franklin & Marshall College has a B+, R+0.4 lean, 94% of races called correctly.
Logged
Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,646
Sweden


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #42 on: November 01, 2016, 07:48:50 AM »

F&M has been very friendly to Hillary this cycle, but even given that, WOW!

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

Franklin & Marshall College has a B+, R+0.4 lean, 94% of races called correctly.

It is not from this GE cycle. They updated the ratings at May 27, 2016.

538 adjusted their polls by 2-3% (though not entirely based on their house effect, but also by the current trend line).
Logged
GeorgiaModerate
Moderators
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,349


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #43 on: November 01, 2016, 07:54:06 AM »

Since this poll also shows McGinty up by double digits, it's probably an outlier on the D side (but even with that in consideration, it looks good for Clinton.)
Logged
Frozen Sky Ever Why
ShadowOfTheWave
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,610
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #44 on: November 01, 2016, 10:16:47 AM »

Outlier. Hillary is still in the danger zone here (45-47%).
Logged
Speed of Sound
LiberalPA
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,166
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #45 on: November 01, 2016, 10:17:40 AM »


Yep.


Hillary is still in the danger zone here (45-47%).

Nope.
Logged
Sir Mohamed
MohamedChalid
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,468
United States



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #46 on: November 01, 2016, 10:52:50 AM »

Beautiful. As long as PA and CO are holding on, the Trumpster has no chance to win the race.
Logged
Kempros
Rookie
**
Posts: 118
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #47 on: November 01, 2016, 02:20:06 PM »

So much variation between recent polls here. Which is true?
Logged
GeorgiaModerate
Moderators
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,349


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #48 on: November 01, 2016, 02:22:34 PM »

So much variation between recent polls here. Which is true?

All of them.  There is an infinity of parallel universes, and each poll sample comes from a different one. Wink
Logged
Pages: 1 [2]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.046 seconds with 13 queries.