PA - F&M College: Clinton +11 (4-way) (user search)
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  PA - F&M College: Clinton +11 (4-way) (search mode)
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Author Topic: PA - F&M College: Clinton +11 (4-way)  (Read 6238 times)
Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
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« on: October 31, 2016, 10:44:14 PM »

Wow. Now we are talking. This one is first really bad news for Trump... Hope that new polls from NC would look much better.
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Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
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« Reply #1 on: October 31, 2016, 10:52:57 PM »
« Edited: October 31, 2016, 10:55:00 PM by Happy Sad Trumpista »

College educated white crosstab is insane: 66-24 Clinton

One caveat: About 3/4 of the interviews were done before Comeygate. However, I don't think Comey really helped Trump in this sample because Clinton would have to be up like 20 points on the pre-Comey days and that would be tough to pull off, even in PA

Another caveat: Party ID is 53-39 D, when actual party ID in the state is about D+9, so adjust it to Clinton +6 or +7 (still a solid lead) and that makes the poll look right

No, the party ID is 50-42 D.
You are talking about Self-Identification while he is about Registration.

Dems = 418/863 =48%
Reps  =  327/853 =38%

Ok. IDK, what you are talkin about
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Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
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Posts: 3,646
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« Reply #2 on: November 01, 2016, 07:48:50 AM »

F&M has been very friendly to Hillary this cycle, but even given that, WOW!

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

Franklin & Marshall College has a B+, R+0.4 lean, 94% of races called correctly.

It is not from this GE cycle. They updated the ratings at May 27, 2016.

538 adjusted their polls by 2-3% (though not entirely based on their house effect, but also by the current trend line).
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