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  PA - F&M College: Clinton +11 (4-way)
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Author Topic: PA - F&M College: Clinton +11 (4-way)  (Read 2979 times)
Polarized MT Treasurer
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« Reply #25 on: October 31, 2016, 11:24:16 pm »

Yeah... sure.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #26 on: October 31, 2016, 11:35:18 pm »

Pennsylvania hates Trump, guys.
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TC 25
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« Reply #27 on: October 31, 2016, 11:48:12 pm »

Michigan significantly to the right of Pennsylvania? I don't buy it.
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Holmes
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« Reply #28 on: October 31, 2016, 11:49:01 pm »

Not that it matters much but this poll has some strange regional results.  

1. It says Clinton wins Allegheny county by 40 points.  I grew up in the Pittsburgh area and I would bet everything I own that she wins it by 20 points or less.

2.  It says Trump is only up 15 points in central PA, Romney won this area by over 30 points and I cant see Trump doing worse.

Aside from that it looks remotely plausible although I don't really trust the 64-28 figure for SE PA either.  Romney lost what I consider SE PA outside of Philly by about 12-15 points, is Trump really going to loose it by 36 points?

It carries over to Toomey as well, he is doing almost as poorly in all of these places which makes no sense.

For what it's worth, Romney payed special attention to the Philly burbs during his campaign, and he wasn't downright toxic to college educated whites.
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TarHeelDem
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« Reply #29 on: October 31, 2016, 11:53:37 pm »

Truly a beautiful poll. May the GOP never stop wasting resources in this wonderful state filled with freedom-loving people!
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IceSpear
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« Reply #30 on: October 31, 2016, 11:57:59 pm »

Michigan significantly to the right of Pennsylvania? I don't buy it.

Well yeah, this poll is an obvious outlier. Average it and the pro-GOP outlier Remington and you likely have the true margin.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #31 on: November 01, 2016, 12:03:10 am »

Michigan won't be to the right of PA because Michigan polls are always wrong and are always wrong because they are way too right-wing.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #32 on: November 01, 2016, 12:52:34 am »

Michigan significantly to the right of Pennsylvania? I don't buy it.

Well yeah, this poll is an obvious outlier. Average it and the pro-GOP outlier Remington and you likely have the true margin.

Agreed... it is a Uni Poll, and likely based off the backs of working college students, in order to add street cred to the Professor, with typical shoddy methodology.

Still, no reason not to through it into the hopper and average mix, and it seems to indicate the Clinton has a relatively decent lead in PA.
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #33 on: November 01, 2016, 12:55:58 am »

Michigan significantly to the right of Pennsylvania? I don't buy it.

Well yeah, this poll is an obvious outlier. Average it and the pro-GOP outlier Remington and you likely have the true margin.

Agreed... it is a Uni Poll, and likely based off the backs of working college students, in order to add street cred to the Professor, with typical shoddy methodology.

Still, no reason not to through it into the hopper and average mix, and it seems to indicate the Clinton has a relatively decent lead in PA.

Clinton's led this whole cycle, except for one Q poll months ago. I'm not counting R or D partisan polls...just reputable, live callers - only one Q poll showed Trump ahead. I think it is safe to say Trump isn't winning PA. He is not going to be able to off-set his abysmal showing in Philly and the surrounding counties.
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mark_twain
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« Reply #34 on: November 01, 2016, 03:01:31 am »


First of all, at this point it is evident that pre-Comey or not hardly makes a difference in the polls.

Second of all, the poll is probably to high for Clinton. Even then, however, half of this margin would be +5.5%, which is still very good for Clinton.
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North Fulton Democrat
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« Reply #35 on: November 01, 2016, 04:18:49 am »

Let's see Joe Scarborough and his ilk discuss this one today.  They are always thrilled to talk about the one completely unknown group with a previously unheard of poll showing some sort of a Trump advantage.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #36 on: November 01, 2016, 05:11:29 am »

Even though F&M is historically a good pollster in PA, this looks like a big outlier to me ...
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Worried Italian Progressive
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« Reply #37 on: November 01, 2016, 05:27:17 am »

Even though F&M is historically a good pollster in PA, this looks like a big outlier to me ...

But the polls showing Clinton +3 in PA are good enough to try and extrapolate a national lead of +1 or +2 ...
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #38 on: November 01, 2016, 05:30:50 am »

Even though F&M is historically a good pollster in PA, this looks like a big outlier to me ...

But the polls showing Clinton +3 in PA are good enough to try and extrapolate a national lead of +1 or +2 ...

It simply makes more sense ...

The average of polls show that Hillary is roughly ahead by 2-3% nationally right now and because PA votes roughly as the US as a whole (slightly more DEM), it makes sense that PA is around C+3 or C+4 right now.

Certainly not C+11 though ...
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PresidentSamTilden
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« Reply #39 on: November 01, 2016, 05:55:07 am »

That's good to see. Throw her in the average
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ReapSow
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« Reply #40 on: November 01, 2016, 06:14:54 am »

Yet another poll to confirm what we've known all along...Putin's RINO puppet is not winning PA.
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Dave Leip
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« Reply #41 on: November 01, 2016, 06:53:38 am »

New Poll: Pennsylvania President by Franklin and Marshall College on 2016-10-30

Summary: D: 49%, R: 38%, U: 7%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #42 on: November 01, 2016, 07:36:13 am »

F&M has been very friendly to Hillary this cycle, but even given that, WOW!

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

Franklin & Marshall College has a B+, R+0.4 lean, 94% of races called correctly.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #43 on: November 01, 2016, 07:48:50 am »

F&M has been very friendly to Hillary this cycle, but even given that, WOW!

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

Franklin & Marshall College has a B+, R+0.4 lean, 94% of races called correctly.

It is not from this GE cycle. They updated the ratings at May 27, 2016.

538 adjusted their polls by 2-3% (though not entirely based on their house effect, but also by the current trend line).
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #44 on: November 01, 2016, 07:54:06 am »

Since this poll also shows McGinty up by double digits, it's probably an outlier on the D side (but even with that in consideration, it looks good for Clinton.)
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WI Is Tilt D
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« Reply #45 on: November 01, 2016, 10:16:47 am »

Outlier. Hillary is still in the danger zone here (45-47%).
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #46 on: November 01, 2016, 10:17:40 am »

Outlier.

Yep.


Hillary is still in the danger zone here (45-47%).

Nope.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #47 on: November 01, 2016, 10:52:50 am »

Beautiful. As long as PA and CO are holding on, the Trumpster has no chance to win the race.
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Kempros
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« Reply #48 on: November 01, 2016, 02:20:06 pm »

So much variation between recent polls here. Which is true?
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #49 on: November 01, 2016, 02:22:34 pm »

So much variation between recent polls here. Which is true?

All of them.  There is an infinity of parallel universes, and each poll sample comes from a different one. Wink
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