If Trump does win by 14, I can't see how Blunt doesn't win.
Coattails aren't really a thing, though.
Repeating the same thing multiple times doesn't make it true. Blunt is just lucky that he's running in a n increasingly red state. If he were running in a swing state, he'd likely get Blanched.
If coattails were a thing, Heitkamp, Manchin, Donnelly, Collins, etc. wouldn't be Senators today and Blunt would be winning in a landslide. Granted, red states are more likely to split their tickets and vote for a Democrat for Senate or Governor than blue states, but still.
Coattails are stronger in some states than others, and don't make candidate quality completely irrelevant. However, if they weren't a thing at all, I doubt ND and IN would have been anywhere near as close. I also doubt that the Senate races in OH, PA, VA, and WI that year (among others) would have been so close to the presidential election. Would Bruce Poliquin have beaten Emily Cain in 2012? Would Rod Blum have won in 2012? Would he even have a chance of winning this year if Hillary was doing well in Iowa, and Grassley wasn't running for re-election?
