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Author Topic: PA: Trafalgar (R) - Trump + 1  (Read 6392 times)
‼realJohnEwards‼
MatteKudasai
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« Reply #25 on: November 07, 2016, 05:17:12 pm »

This actually caused PA to move towards Clinton on 538. I guess, since PA is so safe D, this bumped Trafalgar's House Effect R-wards, which influenced NH/MI averages more than this influenced PA.
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What this election has revealed to me is that our American political factions hold no respect for one another, and that this disrespect has reached the personal level. If we make it through the next four years, I can only pray that our party does something to remedy this, because until we have removed all of our "deplorable" rhetoric from our systems, this nation is hopeless.
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« Reply #26 on: November 07, 2016, 05:17:38 pm »

Trump is up 2 points not 1.

decimals are from hell.
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Tulsi "Both sides" Gabbard
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« Reply #27 on: November 07, 2016, 05:20:08 pm »

Hopefully this junk is just a 2016 thing.
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #28 on: November 07, 2016, 05:36:37 pm »

Clinton only losing whites by 7 (44-51) but Trump's outperforming with Blacks and Latino's - Clinton only up 67/28 with blacks and 60-35 with Latino's.

Obama lost whites by 15 in 2012 and won the state by 5. Hmmmm
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #29 on: November 07, 2016, 05:44:12 pm »

Entering these into the database is a mistake. These are (R) polls from a new firm with no history. We should treat them at minimum as skeptically as we do PPP polls for clients. At minimum.
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Secret Cavern Survivor
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« Reply #30 on: November 07, 2016, 08:15:13 pm »

hahahaha
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Antonio V
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« Reply #31 on: November 07, 2016, 08:16:04 pm »

This actually caused PA to move towards Clinton on 538. I guess, since PA is so safe D, this bumped Trafalgar's House Effect R-wards, which influenced NH/MI averages more than this influenced PA.

Also, yeah, this does suggest a serious design flaw in Nate's model.
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J. J.
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« Reply #32 on: November 08, 2016, 06:13:19 pm »

Did Sucksquehanna change its name to Trafalgar? 
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J. J.

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« Reply #33 on: November 08, 2016, 06:22:16 pm »

Did Sucksquehanna change its name to Trafalgar? 

No. She won their poll by like 2.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #34 on: November 09, 2016, 02:14:39 am »

.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #35 on: November 09, 2016, 02:25:06 am »

Freedom Poll!
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J. J.
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« Reply #36 on: November 09, 2016, 04:01:39 am »

Did Sucksquehanna change its name to Trafalgar? 

Maybe Susquehanna should change its name to Trafalgar.  LOL. 
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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
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"Every government are parliaments of whores.
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(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #37 on: November 09, 2016, 04:35:01 am »

How did they do it? They were so good Shocked
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« Reply #38 on: November 09, 2016, 08:46:48 pm »

So sad to see how people laughed at this poll while they did not realize that this would turn out to be one of the most accurate Pennsylvania polls.
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Axel Foley
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« Reply #39 on: November 11, 2016, 09:01:14 am »

What the hell of a poll...
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Not a native nor full-skilled English-speaker, I hope my writings to be understood anyway. I am here only to discuss about election trends and general arguments, I will not express any judgement about American politics and country direction.
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« Reply #40 on: November 11, 2016, 01:26:56 pm »

And when someone like me would point to a poll like this, I was mocked and ridiculed on this board.
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Abraham Washington
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« Reply #41 on: November 13, 2016, 12:58:52 pm »

And when someone like me would point to a poll like this, I was mocked and ridiculed on this board.

AND YOU BUNCH OF LOW ENERGY LOSERS SAID IT COULDN'T BE DONE!



#45
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« Reply #42 on: November 13, 2016, 03:27:52 pm »

How did they do it? They were so good Shocked
Presidential Polls 2016: Why Were They So Wrong on Trump?
Quote
Trafalgar Group
This is a Republican leaning poll that suspected people were lying to pollsters that they supported Trump. So the pollsters started also asking people who they thought their neighbors would vote for and determined the numbers were different.

The firm, which is based out of Atlanta, adjusted its numbers to account for this factor and predicted that Trump would win Pennsylvania and Michigan as well as the electoral college, says TIPP Online.

The poll did get some other states wrong.
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« Reply #43 on: November 18, 2016, 07:06:45 am »

Trafalgar's methodology has become a gold standard on polling (though they overestimated Trump in FL, but they were right in OH, PA and MI) in 2016.
In the past, I would just dismiss it as a garbage.
Now I've had several eggs on my face; these eggs messed my face so much to the point that it masked my face.
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« Reply #44 on: August 12, 2017, 07:51:10 pm »

LOL,,,,

Trafalgar is pretty much a fake poll.
So much for the fake poll
Lol😅😂🤣😅😀😃😄🤣😅😂😄😀😅🤣😄😂😂😄😂😆😂😂😂
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