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Author Topic: NC-SurveyUSA: Trump +7  (Read 19326 times)
Eraserhead
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« Reply #75 on: November 01, 2016, 04:23:46 pm »

Trump's path to 270 starts to look somewhat more plausible if he can hold on to North Carolina.  

Eh, not quite.

These are all great news for Donald, but it's easy to forget he needs either CO or PA to put the cherry on top of any feasible EC paths. It all comes down to CO or PA, and nothing has changed in his chances in either of these. They are both pretty much safe D at this point, at the very least lean D.

Well, that's why I said "somewhat".
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« Reply #76 on: November 01, 2016, 04:25:37 pm »

cohn also implies that the urban numbers (only +10 C) are trash.

As did Liam Donovan, a longtime GOP operative

So did Nate Silver about Trump in the primary. He dismissed all the polls as a trash (as Dems did this week, actually) Tongue
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #77 on: November 01, 2016, 04:27:21 pm »

He's getting 14% of the black vote.

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cinyc
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« Reply #78 on: November 01, 2016, 04:27:46 pm »

cohn also implies that the urban numbers (only +10 C) are trash.

As did Liam Donovan, a longtime GOP operative

We've had this urban/suburban/rural crosstab discussion before.  Some of us have come to the conclusion that the categories are meaningless.  It depends what SUSA defines as urban.  There appears to be no standard for it among pollsters.  If it's any big city or any urbanized area as defined by Census, you're talking about putting all of Charlotte, including suburban parts, into it.   If it is self-reported, then nobody knows what urban truly means.
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Horus
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« Reply #79 on: November 01, 2016, 04:28:16 pm »

He's getting 14% of the black vote.



Tbf, I'm pretty sure NC has consistently been his best state for that. But I don't think he'll get more than 10% in the end.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #80 on: November 01, 2016, 04:29:16 pm »

Trashing 1 poll methodology vs trashing all polls and building a model that used endorsements to predict the primary winner are not the same thing.
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« Reply #81 on: November 01, 2016, 04:31:07 pm »

I never trust Survey USA for anything, but I'm about to get a little too excited based on D reaction. The same thing with 'not picking up D enthusiasm' and missing voters happened in 2014. Please please please let that be the best unskew that you can come up with. But I know you can do better since you are actually ahead.
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« Reply #82 on: November 01, 2016, 04:33:26 pm »

He's getting 14% of the black vote.



Tbf, I'm pretty sure NC has consistently been his best state for that. But I don't think he'll get more than 10% in the end.
Most polls show him getting 1 or 0 points here in NC.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #83 on: November 01, 2016, 04:33:40 pm »

It is an outlier. It happens. But it doesn't mean that you completely dismiss it. Deal with it and average it. BTH, do you think that Sienna/Upshot poll could be an outllier?

Trashing 1 poll methodology vs trashing all polls and building a model that used endorsements to predict the primary winner are not the same thing.

ABC, IBD and SUSA, all A pollsters has been trashed, when they showed... guess what Smiley

And even Monmouth↓↓↓

It's difficult to envision Trump significantly outperform Romney's margins here (+10%).
« Last Edit: November 01, 2016, 04:35:31 pm by Happy Sad Trumpista »Logged

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« Reply #84 on: November 01, 2016, 04:41:55 pm »

To be fair, SUSA's crosstabs are always wacky, but the topline in this one is certainly an outlier.

 
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« Reply #85 on: November 01, 2016, 04:43:54 pm »

Even if Trump is currently leading here, this poll is definitely an outlier.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #86 on: November 01, 2016, 04:46:12 pm »

cohn also implies that the urban numbers (only +10 C) are trash.

As did Liam Donovan, a longtime GOP operative

We've had this urban/suburban/rural crosstab discussion before.  Some of us have come to the conclusion that the categories are meaningless.  It depends what SUSA defines as urban.  There appears to be no standard for it among pollsters.  If it's any big city or any urbanized area as defined by Census, you're talking about putting all of Charlotte, including suburban parts, into it.   If it is self-reported, then nobody knows what urban truly means.

I've actually never thought of it that way. Seems like a particularly cogent point in sprawly Sun Belt cities
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« Reply #87 on: November 01, 2016, 04:47:42 pm »

No. No. No f**king way.
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« Reply #88 on: November 01, 2016, 04:52:09 pm »

Black (21%)
Clinton 84
Trump 14

Democrats (44%)
Clinton 75
Trump 23

LOL. Either people lied to them in the survey or they polled a bunch of Blue Dog African-Americans.

For comparison to the Upshot/Siena poll:

African-Americans: Clinton 88%, Trump 2%
Democrats: Clinton 88%, Trump 7%


Marist poll:

African-Americans: Clinton 95%, Trump 2%
Democrats: Clinton 92%, Trump 5%

I get that SurveyUSA's crosstabs are always junk, but I think they got a really bad sample.

Pretty much this.... I have been saying for months that NC will likely go down to the wire, and although almost all recent polls have shown a Clinton lead, that late-breakers in a Southern State tend to go Republican by default, hence my Tossup (Trump) prediction despite the opinions of many others on the forum.

Clearly a junk poll, especially when looking at the wacky cross-tabs.... I'll still stand by the EV numbers in NC that show both positives and negatives for Clinton and continue to see NC to be a pure toss-up state, that although it likely won't keep us up on Election Night, could easily swing either way, regardless of any potential cracks in the Firewall in a Wisconsin or New Hampshire.

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« Reply #89 on: November 01, 2016, 04:59:46 pm »

Black (21%)
Clinton 84
Trump 14

Democrats (44%)
Clinton 75
Trump 23

LOL. Either people lied to them in the survey or they polled a bunch of Blue Dog African-Americans.

For comparison to the Upshot/Siena poll:

African-Americans: Clinton 88%, Trump 2%
Democrats: Clinton 88%, Trump 7%


Marist poll:

African-Americans: Clinton 95%, Trump 2%
Democrats: Clinton 92%, Trump 5%

I get that SurveyUSA's crosstabs are always junk, but I think they got a really bad sample.

Pretty much this.... I have been saying for months that NC will likely go down to the wire, and although almost all recent polls have shown a Clinton lead, that late-breakers in a Southern State tend to go Republican by default, hence my Tossup (Trump) prediction despite the opinions of many others on the forum.

Clearly a junk poll, especially when looking at the wacky cross-tabs.... I'll still stand by the EV numbers in NC that show both positives and negatives for Clinton and continue to see NC to be a pure toss-up state, that although it likely won't keep us up on Election Night, could easily swing either way, regardless of any potential cracks in the Firewall in a Wisconsin or New Hampshire.



When were the two comparison polls taken? I'm still not convinced there hasn't been significant damage done with the faked email scandal.
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« Reply #90 on: November 01, 2016, 05:23:12 pm »

Given we were seeing a Trump comeback prior to the FBI reopening the investigation and the fact SUSA is an A-rated pollster, I'm inclined to accept this result.
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #91 on: November 01, 2016, 05:29:53 pm »

Given we were seeing a Trump comeback prior to the FBI reopening the investigation and the fact SUSA is an A-rated pollster, I'm inclined to accept this result.
Or it's an outlier that you are now having to pin your hopes on.  Either could be true.
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« Reply #92 on: November 01, 2016, 05:30:35 pm »

Black (21%)
Clinton 84
Trump 14

Democrats (44%)
Clinton 75
Trump 23

LOL. Either people lied to them in the survey or they polled a bunch of Blue Dog African-Americans.

For comparison to the Upshot/Siena poll:

African-Americans: Clinton 88%, Trump 2%
Democrats: Clinton 88%, Trump 7%


Marist poll:

African-Americans: Clinton 95%, Trump 2%
Democrats: Clinton 92%, Trump 5%

I get that SurveyUSA's crosstabs are always junk, but I think they got a really bad sample.

Pretty much this.... I have been saying for months that NC will likely go down to the wire, and although almost all recent polls have shown a Clinton lead, that late-breakers in a Southern State tend to go Republican by default, hence my Tossup (Trump) prediction despite the opinions of many others on the forum.

Clearly a junk poll, especially when looking at the wacky cross-tabs.... I'll still stand by the EV numbers in NC that show both positives and negatives for Clinton and continue to see NC to be a pure toss-up state, that although it likely won't keep us up on Election Night, could easily swing either way, regardless of any potential cracks in the Firewall in a Wisconsin or New Hampshire.



When were the two comparison polls taken? I'm still not convinced there hasn't been significant damage done with the faked email scandal.

Hammy--- although I was not the OP, I am also not convinced that the faked email scandal has impact the national poll numbers.

I suspect that what we are seeing the inevitable return of Republican base, many of whom were #NeverTrump people, combined with Republican leaning Indies returning to their ancestral voting patterns.

The point that the OP was making is that the SUSA crosstabs don't make any sense compared to more accurate data from Upshot/Sienna that still shows NC as close, which jives with what we are seeing with EV in NC, as well as other recent polling of the state. Smiley

I'll let HillofNight or Heatcharger jump in, and hopefully my statements were not misinterpreted to indicate that the email deal is changing the state of the race in NC, which is certainly not the point I was trying to make.

I've always believed that despite somewhat favorable demographic changes in NC for Dems, that this state would go down to the wire on Election Day, and have been considerably less optimistic of this being a Romney flip state than many others on Atlas.
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« Reply #93 on: November 01, 2016, 05:33:09 pm »

SUSA's crosstabs are always wacky, even when their topline results are correct. (Though this poll is almost certainly too R-friendly)
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EpicHistory
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« Reply #94 on: November 01, 2016, 05:44:30 pm »

Or it's an outlier that you are now having to pin your hopes on.  Either could be true.

No, I don't believe so. Outside of a D+6 result by Marist last week, all recent polls had her in the low single digits in North Carolina. You're now starting to see the FBI results roll in, on top of the tepid surge we were already seeing prior to it. I'll concede it may be a few points too Republican, but I can definitely see anything from R+3 to R+5 at right now there.
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #95 on: November 01, 2016, 05:54:07 pm »

Or it's an outlier that you are now having to pin your hopes on.  Either could be true.

No, I don't believe so. Outside of a D+6 result by Marist last week, all recent polls had her in the low single digits in North Carolina. You're now starting to see the FBI results roll in, on top of the tepid surge we were already seeing prior to it. I'll concede it may be a few points too Republican, but I can definitely see anything from R+3 to R+5 at right now there.
Or it's just an outlier that you are trying to make excuses for.
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« Reply #96 on: November 01, 2016, 06:01:47 pm »

Or it's just an outlier that you are trying to make excuses for.

Your inability to accept reality is the issue, nothing with regards to myself. As I pointed out, with these things called facts, she was already dropping in North Carolina prior to the Email announcement. This Trump surge is supported by the fact he is pulling ahead in Florida again for example, among other data-points. When multiple A-rated pollsters keep showing your sacred cow isn't that sacred, it becomes a matter of you cherry picking rather than every poll that disagrees with your distorted concept of reality being an outlier.
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RalstonSucks
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« Reply #97 on: November 01, 2016, 06:16:32 pm »

it's over folks
say hi to your next president
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« Reply #98 on: November 01, 2016, 06:17:38 pm »

Trump was never going to lose North Carolina, it's never been part of the "firewall".
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« Reply #99 on: November 01, 2016, 06:19:07 pm »

Wow.
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