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  NC-SurveyUSA: Trump +7
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Author Topic: NC-SurveyUSA: Trump +7  (Read 23130 times)
Maxwell
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« Reply #50 on: November 01, 2016, 03:37:26 pm »


looool i forgot this happened
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heatcharger
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« Reply #51 on: November 01, 2016, 03:37:55 pm »

I think SurveyUSA is generally a good pollster, but sometimes they just are completely unable to poll certain states. Think Minnesota, Kentucky, and a few others.

Also, does anyone have the crosstabs? I can't wait to laugh.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #52 on: November 01, 2016, 03:38:09 pm »

cohn also implies that the urban numbers (only +10 C) are trash.
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swf541
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« Reply #53 on: November 01, 2016, 03:38:55 pm »

I think SurveyUSA is generally a good pollster, but sometimes they just are completely unable to poll certain states. Think Minnesota, Kentucky, and a few others.

Also, does anyone have the crosstabs? I can't wait to laugh.


I agree, lets not forget the McCain +20 in 08 in NC
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dspNY
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« Reply #54 on: November 01, 2016, 03:41:37 pm »

cohn also implies that the urban numbers (only +10 C) are trash.

This is the one time in 10 polls where the junky cross tabs create the outlier
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #55 on: November 01, 2016, 03:46:47 pm »

Also we should harken back to 2008 when Survey USA had McCain up 20 here as well.

Did they really ?
+20 ..... LMAO.
That's nuts.
Makes me feel better than this is an (way-out in left field) outlier.
Still bad news though, as this state will more than likely be close to even. But hopefully Clinton can still carry it.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #56 on: November 01, 2016, 03:52:29 pm »

http://www.wral.com/asset/news/state/nccapitol/2016/11/01/16183925/261876-WRAL_News_poll_Nov._1_2016_.pdf

Early voters (40%)
Clinton 52
Trump 46

Not voted yet (60%)
Clinton 38
Trump 54

Black (21%)
Clinton 84
Trump 14

White (72%)
Clinton 33
Trump 62

Republicans (33%)
Clinton 5
Trump 90

Democrats (44%)
Clinton 75
Trump 23

Unaffiliated (20%)
Clinton 39
Trump 51
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Yank2133
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« Reply #57 on: November 01, 2016, 03:53:40 pm »

http://www.wral.com/asset/news/state/nccapitol/2016/11/01/16183925/261876-WRAL_News_poll_Nov._1_2016_.pdf

Early voters (40%)
Clinton 52
Trump 46

Not voted yet (60%)
Clinton 38
Trump 54

Black (21%)
Clinton 84
Trump 14

White (72%)
Clinton 33
Trump 62

Republicans (33%)
Clinton 5
Trump 90


Democrats (44%)
Clinton 75
Trump 23


Unaffiliated (20%)
Clinton 39
Trump 51

Lmao!
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #58 on: November 01, 2016, 03:54:17 pm »

http://www.wral.com/asset/news/state/nccapitol/2016/11/01/16183925/261876-WRAL_News_poll_Nov._1_2016_.pdf

Early voters (40%)
Clinton 52
Trump 46

Not voted yet (60%)
Clinton 38
Trump 54

Black (21%)
Clinton 84
Trump 14

White (72%)
Clinton 33
Trump 62

Republicans (33%)
Clinton 5
Trump 90

Democrats (44%)
Clinton 75
Trump 23


Unaffiliated (20%)
Clinton 39
Trump 51

I think I found your problem...
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mencken
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« Reply #59 on: November 01, 2016, 03:54:32 pm »

Also we should harken back to 2008 when Survey USA had McCain up 20 here as well.



...in a poll taken at the height of his convention bounce. They had him up 1 in the poll taken at this same point eight years ago.
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HokeyDood
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« Reply #60 on: November 01, 2016, 03:54:39 pm »

CONFIRMED JUNK POLL!!!
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Mike88
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« Reply #61 on: November 01, 2016, 03:57:48 pm »

Image Link
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #62 on: November 01, 2016, 03:57:58 pm »

Also we should harken back to 2008 when Survey USA had McCain up 20 here as well.



...in a poll taken at the height of his convention bounce. They had him up 1 in the poll taken at this same point eight years ago.

You're insane if you think McCain was ever up 20, convention bounce or not...
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #63 on: November 01, 2016, 03:58:16 pm »

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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #64 on: November 01, 2016, 04:00:08 pm »

it is correct for 538's model to do that.

but that rep-consolidation combined with that dem disarray sounds junky.
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Biden If Buttigieg
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« Reply #65 on: November 01, 2016, 04:00:57 pm »

It's over. Congratulations Pepe.
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john cage bubblegum
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« Reply #66 on: November 01, 2016, 04:02:53 pm »

Junk poll, but ugh, I guess NC is pretty much a straight tossup right now?
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heatcharger
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« Reply #67 on: November 01, 2016, 04:05:23 pm »

Black (21%)
Clinton 84
Trump 14

Democrats (44%)
Clinton 75
Trump 23

LOL. Either people lied to them in the survey or they polled a bunch of Blue Dog African-Americans.

For comparison to the Upshot/Siena poll:

African-Americans: Clinton 88%, Trump 2%
Democrats: Clinton 88%, Trump 7%

Marist poll:

African-Americans: Clinton 95%, Trump 2%
Democrats: Clinton 92%, Trump 5%

I get that SurveyUSA's crosstabs are always junk, but I think they got a really bad sample.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #68 on: November 01, 2016, 04:05:28 pm »

it's all about republican white women.
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mencken
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« Reply #69 on: November 01, 2016, 04:12:37 pm »

Also we should harken back to 2008 when Survey USA had McCain up 20 here as well.



...in a poll taken at the height of his convention bounce. They had him up 1 in the poll taken at this same point eight years ago.

You're insane if you think McCain was ever up 20, convention bounce or not...

The point is that it is hardly an apples to apples comparison.

1) Given that McCain was leading a fair share of national polls during his convention bounce, it would hardly be unreasonable to believe he was leading North Carolina by high single digits at the time, which is not as bad as the 21 point error the poster was implying SurveyUSA committed.
2) Of course a poll taken two months before Election Day will be less accurate than one one week before. SurveyUSA's poll at this point eight years ago showed McCain up by one, which is a two point error.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #70 on: November 01, 2016, 04:15:02 pm »

Trump's path to 270 starts to look somewhat more plausible if he can hold on to North Carolina. 
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EliteLX
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« Reply #71 on: November 01, 2016, 04:19:36 pm »

Trump's path to 270 starts to look somewhat more plausible if he can hold on to North Carolina.  

Eh, not quite.

These are all great news for Donald, but it's easy to forget he needs either CO or PA to put the cherry on top of any feasible EC paths. It all comes down to CO or PA, and nothing has changed in his chances in either of these. They are both pretty much safe D at this point, at the very least lean D.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #72 on: November 01, 2016, 04:22:31 pm »

cohn also implies that the urban numbers (only +10 C) are trash.

As did Liam Donovan, a longtime GOP operative
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #73 on: November 01, 2016, 04:23:46 pm »

Trump's path to 270 starts to look somewhat more plausible if he can hold on to North Carolina.  

Eh, not quite.

These are all great news for Donald, but it's easy to forget he needs either CO or PA to put the cherry on top of any feasible EC paths. It all comes down to CO or PA, and nothing has changed in his chances in either of these. They are both pretty much safe D at this point, at the very least lean D.

Well, that's why I said "somewhat".
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #74 on: November 01, 2016, 04:25:37 pm »

cohn also implies that the urban numbers (only +10 C) are trash.

As did Liam Donovan, a longtime GOP operative

So did Nate Silver about Trump in the primary. He dismissed all the polls as a trash (as Dems did this week, actually) Tongue
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