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Author Topic: NC-SurveyUSA: Trump +7  (Read 21519 times)
NOVA Green
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« on: November 01, 2016, 03:13:30 pm »

And the bad news keeps rolling....

Also SUSA isn't in general a bad pollster, this does seem a bit off and makes me wonder if their LV screens are filtering out Dem voters on the "enthusiasm gap".

I still have NC as a tossup (Trump) on the prediction thread, still see this as closer to a 2 point race either way.

I'm assuming their Senate numbers will post tomorrow?
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #1 on: November 01, 2016, 03:18:14 pm »

Ah, here's probably a major source of the disagreement:

Quote
SurveyUSA polled 659 people statewide Friday through Monday who have already cast their ballots or are likely to vote in the election and found Trump with a 51 to 44 percent lead over Democratic rival Hillary Clinton.

Did they not poll Unaffiliateds or something?


Hmmm.... that's interesting and throws a giant monkeywrench into the discussion and mix.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #2 on: November 01, 2016, 04:52:09 pm »

Black (21%)
Clinton 84
Trump 14

Democrats (44%)
Clinton 75
Trump 23

LOL. Either people lied to them in the survey or they polled a bunch of Blue Dog African-Americans.

For comparison to the Upshot/Siena poll:

African-Americans: Clinton 88%, Trump 2%
Democrats: Clinton 88%, Trump 7%


Marist poll:

African-Americans: Clinton 95%, Trump 2%
Democrats: Clinton 92%, Trump 5%

I get that SurveyUSA's crosstabs are always junk, but I think they got a really bad sample.

Pretty much this.... I have been saying for months that NC will likely go down to the wire, and although almost all recent polls have shown a Clinton lead, that late-breakers in a Southern State tend to go Republican by default, hence my Tossup (Trump) prediction despite the opinions of many others on the forum.

Clearly a junk poll, especially when looking at the wacky cross-tabs.... I'll still stand by the EV numbers in NC that show both positives and negatives for Clinton and continue to see NC to be a pure toss-up state, that although it likely won't keep us up on Election Night, could easily swing either way, regardless of any potential cracks in the Firewall in a Wisconsin or New Hampshire.

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NOVA Green
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« Reply #3 on: November 01, 2016, 05:30:35 pm »

Black (21%)
Clinton 84
Trump 14

Democrats (44%)
Clinton 75
Trump 23

LOL. Either people lied to them in the survey or they polled a bunch of Blue Dog African-Americans.

For comparison to the Upshot/Siena poll:

African-Americans: Clinton 88%, Trump 2%
Democrats: Clinton 88%, Trump 7%


Marist poll:

African-Americans: Clinton 95%, Trump 2%
Democrats: Clinton 92%, Trump 5%

I get that SurveyUSA's crosstabs are always junk, but I think they got a really bad sample.

Pretty much this.... I have been saying for months that NC will likely go down to the wire, and although almost all recent polls have shown a Clinton lead, that late-breakers in a Southern State tend to go Republican by default, hence my Tossup (Trump) prediction despite the opinions of many others on the forum.

Clearly a junk poll, especially when looking at the wacky cross-tabs.... I'll still stand by the EV numbers in NC that show both positives and negatives for Clinton and continue to see NC to be a pure toss-up state, that although it likely won't keep us up on Election Night, could easily swing either way, regardless of any potential cracks in the Firewall in a Wisconsin or New Hampshire.



When were the two comparison polls taken? I'm still not convinced there hasn't been significant damage done with the faked email scandal.

Hammy--- although I was not the OP, I am also not convinced that the faked email scandal has impact the national poll numbers.

I suspect that what we are seeing the inevitable return of Republican base, many of whom were #NeverTrump people, combined with Republican leaning Indies returning to their ancestral voting patterns.

The point that the OP was making is that the SUSA crosstabs don't make any sense compared to more accurate data from Upshot/Sienna that still shows NC as close, which jives with what we are seeing with EV in NC, as well as other recent polling of the state. Smiley

I'll let HillofNight or Heatcharger jump in, and hopefully my statements were not misinterpreted to indicate that the email deal is changing the state of the race in NC, which is certainly not the point I was trying to make.

I've always believed that despite somewhat favorable demographic changes in NC for Dems, that this state would go down to the wire on Election Day, and have been considerably less optimistic of this being a Romney flip state than many others on Atlas.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #4 on: November 01, 2016, 06:19:55 pm »

it's over folks
say hi to your next president

Which one is that??? Wink
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #5 on: November 01, 2016, 10:03:42 pm »

Trump EV numbers are very good in NC, but I don't think they will hold. He might still win if tightening continues, but it would be by 2-3 points, not 7

This....

Exactly what I have been saying for months, even with the inevitable roller-coaster ride that is Atlas every four years, NC will not be a +4/5 D/R state in 2016 and go all the way to the wire until late in the evening...
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