A chance for Trump to hold Orange?
Hmmm... didn't see anything in the great lovely SUSA crosstabs to suggest that....
Not a big fan of the theory that "demographics are destiny", but even IF Cali is tightening up a little bit, I suspect those shifts are more likely happening in places like the Central Valley, retirees in the Eastern part of the Inland Empire, and parts of rural Northern California.
But yeah, if we extrapolate statewide margins from this one poll and use a universal county swing, then sure OC holds, which there is still a chance that would happen even with Cali going C +25.
Still, the OC of today is not my father's OC, let alone my grandparents OC, and the Trump train is definitely swimming upstream in OC, with an increasingly narrow electoral coalition in basically the only large county in Cali left that still tends to vote Republican....
