Why I want Trump to Win

[Virginiá]

Warning: This is an extremely scalding take partially written in satire and partially written in urine-soaked bedsheets as I frantically move the goalposts as each new poll comes in.


If Hillary Clinton wins in 2016, the Supreme Court will most likely, finally favor the democrats for the first time in a while. But if the economy slips into recession, then the Democrats could feasibly lose 12 Senate seats and more than 50 house seats. But if Trump wins, the democrats could actually make gains in the house, and possibly retain or stem the inevitable bleeding of the 2018 senate map.

I've thought about this, and to a degree you have a point (though I think your House seat gains are too high), but there are a lot of IF's in this theory. There is no guarantee we get an anti-Trump wave that is actually worth giving up the Supreme Court for. As IceSpear said, the Senate map in 2018 is unlikely to give us much, even in a wave. But, by 2020, we'd probably win Congress and end up with the White House for another 8 years if we pick the right candidate. Again, another IF.

Further, all this partisan politics ignores the huge danger in letting Trump have so much power and influence. Trump would be an epic foreign relations disaster and a couple years of him could lead to severe issues between our allies. Imagine what happens when Trump is berated for 4 years and, as usual, he feels the need to settle every little score? Except this time, he has the power of the executive branch. I'm not kidding when I say all that.

Having the next 4, maybe 8 years will allow us to finish remaking the federal judiciary from the top-down. Almost, if not every district & circuit court will be majority Democrat-appointees. With 8 more years, we have a real chance at a 6-3 SCOTUS majority.

In the end, by the time Republicans get the White House back, the oldest Millennials will be at or above middle age and the entire 18-50 age bracket will likely be majority-Democratic. After 8 years, any attempt to implement a broad conservative agenda at this time will likely result in a backlash as most of the electorate will be much too liberal-leaning for that. Even just buying us 4 more years will begin to put such a policy platform on shaky ground.

Would be better just to absorb the midterm blows, remake the federal judiciary and hold out until the electorate moves further left to where the conservative agenda is DOA.

[Chunk Yogurt for President!]

Trump will move the GOP to the left on economic and social issues

By passing the biggest tax cut in history and appointing judges to overturn Roe v. Wade?

Trump will do neither of those things.  I wouldn't be surprised if the pro-life plank of the GOP platform is dropped in 2020.

[Frodo]

Warning: This is an extremely scalding take partially written in satire and partially written in urine-soaked bedsheets as I frantically move the goalposts as each new poll comes in.


If Hillary Clinton wins in 2016, the Supreme Court will most likely, finally favor the democrats for the first time in a while. But if the economy slips into recession, then the Democrats could feasibly lose 12 Senate seats and more than 50 house seats. But if Trump wins, the democrats could actually make gains in the house, and possibly retain or stem the inevitable bleeding of the 2018 senate map.

I've thought about this, and to a degree you have a point (though I think your House seat gains are too high), but there are a lot of IF's in this theory. There is no guarantee we get an anti-Trump wave that is actually worth giving up the Supreme Court for. As IceSpear said, the Senate map in 2018 is unlikely to give us much, even in a wave. But, by 2020, we'd probably win Congress and end up with the White House for another 8 years if we pick the right candidate. Again, another IF.

Further, all this partisan politics ignores the huge danger in letting Trump have so much power and influence. Trump would be an epic foreign relations disaster and a couple years of him could lead to severe issues between our allies. Imagine what happens when Trump is berated for 4 years and, as usual, he feels the need to settle every little score? Except this time, he has the power of the executive branch. I'm not kidding when I say all that.

Having the next 4, maybe 8 years will allow us to finish remaking the federal judiciary from the top-down. Almost, if not every district & circuit court will be majority Democrat-appointees. With 8 more years, we have a real chance at a 6-3 SCOTUS majority.

In the end, by the time Republicans get the White House back, the oldest Millennials will be at or above middle age and the entire 18-50 age bracket will likely be majority-Democratic. After 8 years, any attempt to implement a broad conservative agenda at this time will likely result in a backlash as most of the electorate will be much too liberal-leaning for that. Even just buying us 4 more years will begin to put such a policy platform on shaky ground.

Would be better just to absorb the midterm blows, remake the federal judiciary and hold out until the electorate moves further left to where the conservative agenda is DOA.

And what if we don't win back the Senate (a distinct possibility) if and when Hillary is elected President?  I suppose she could protect President Obama's legacy achievements (though Obamacare urgently needs some improvements....) and keep our foreign policy on an even keel, but precious little else.  

[Virginiá]

Whether Clinton wins or loses, there is no chance at full Democratic control until at least 2020, and likely not until after 2024 or 2028 if she wins.  This is why Congressional Republicans are being so brazen, because the earliest possible payback is so far off in the future.

I thought you were being too silly when you kept talking about court-packing, but the events of the past couple weeks have really got me worried that the war over the judiciary could truly spiral even further out of control - especially since Democrat's Senate prospects are not very bright over the next 6-8 years, at least (assuming Clinton wins).

I have to admit, this really says something about the GOP to me. Parties have risen and fallen from dominance many times in the past and pretty much none of those times has anything like this ever happened. Faced with the prospect of being marginalized unless they adapt, the GOP decides to, rather than change & adapt, instead throw out all actual traditions, all forms of professionalism and reverting to pure primal partisanship at any costs. Why are so much more desperate than in the past?

It's fking dangerous and an insult to those in the past who have kept our system of government alive and well for so long.

And what if we don't win back the Senate (a distinct possibility) if and when Hillary is elected President?  I suppose she could protect President Obama's legacy achievements (though Obamacare urgently needs some improvements....) and keep our foreign policy on an even keel, but precious little else.  

That's true, but right now my money is still on at least a slim majority, which influences the reasoning behind my post above.

If we don't get the Senate, then the Senate GOP will still have to confirm some lower court judges, as it's not just a game. It's one thing to slam the door on SCOTUS confirmations but the lower court needs to function or the court system will grow into a bigger and bigger issue with only the GOP to blame for the mass dysfunction that occurs from constantly growing judicial backlogs and burned out judges.

I just don't see an option here. Trump is dangerous and no amount of partisan gain would change my mind on that, and admittedly, that is a painful decision for me!

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

Should we take the long term view when it comes to this election? I think we should. And the long term view is that in billions of years, the sun is going to grow and encompass the earth, so death at the hands of a flaming orange menace is in our future.

[LimoLiberal]

Bump. I was right.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Bump. I was right.

But wait, I thought you have been saying the GOP is likely to gain seats in the Senate?

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Trump will move the GOP to the left on economic and social issues

By passing the biggest tax cut in history and appointing judges to overturn Roe v. Wade?

Trump will do neither of those things.  I wouldn't be surprised if the pro-life plank of the GOP platform is dropped in 2020.

Well, he already did one of these things...

 Excessive posting

[Fuzzy Bear]

If you are a partisan, it is ALWAYS better for your party to win everything it can win.

If you are a partisan, it ALWAYS makes sense to endorse the rest of your ticket, excluding rare times when, say, a David Duke or a convicted criminal steals a nomination in a fluke; a case where the WHOLE PARTY is bailing on a candidate.  Even if you don't like the candidate, it's better to say you're voting for him and leave it at that.

It is ALWAYS better for your party to win the Presidency and the Governorship of your state.  EXECUTIVE power puts a face on your party, and that is what helps your party grow at the expense of the other party.  The Democrats numerically controlled Congress for decades, but by 1972, they had NO PERMANENT BASE in Presidential elections, and this state of affairs continued until 1992.  This state of affairs resulted in a large number of Democrats not being loyal to their Presidential party, not endorsing their Presidential candidate.  Many of these folks were Southern Democrats; to their surprise, when many became Republicans, they were immediately defeated in primaries, because you don't stop being "the enemy" when you surrender, or become a turncoat.