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Author Topic: MO-Monmouth: Blunt +1  (Read 1461 times)
IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL
IndyRep
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« on: November 01, 2016, 12:12:53 pm »

47% Roy Blunt (R, inc.)
46% Jason Kander (D)
2% Jonathan Dine (L)

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_MO_110116/
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« Reply #1 on: November 01, 2016, 12:13:35 pm »

gonna be a barnburner but I think Blunt wins out
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« Reply #2 on: November 01, 2016, 12:14:08 pm »

I doubt Trump wins MO by 14, so another bad poll for Blunt.
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IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL
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« Reply #3 on: November 01, 2016, 12:16:55 pm »

Roy Blunt is a waste. Roy Blunt's campaign is a big, fat mistake.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #4 on: November 01, 2016, 12:21:02 pm »

I doubt Trump wins MO by 14, so another bad poll for Blunt.

Who would have thought a month ago that Burr would be better positioned than Blunt?
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ExtremeConservative
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« Reply #5 on: November 01, 2016, 12:25:33 pm »

If Trump does win by 14, I can't see how Blunt doesn't win.
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IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL
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« Reply #6 on: November 01, 2016, 12:26:41 pm »

If Trump does win by 14, I can't see how Blunt doesn't win.

Coattails aren't really a thing, though.
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Castro
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« Reply #7 on: November 01, 2016, 12:26:56 pm »

If Trump does win by 14, I can't see how Blunt doesn't win.

And therein lies the problem.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #8 on: November 01, 2016, 12:28:42 pm »

If Trump does win by 14, I can't see how Blunt doesn't win.
Coattails aren't really a thing, though.
They are, but Trump is not going to win by 14.
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xingkerui
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« Reply #9 on: November 01, 2016, 12:31:06 pm »

If Trump does win by 14, I can't see how Blunt doesn't win.

Coattails aren't really a thing, though.

Repeating the same thing multiple times doesn't make it true. Blunt is just lucky that he's running in a n increasingly red state. If he were running in a swing state, he'd likely get Blanched.
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IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL
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« Reply #10 on: November 01, 2016, 12:33:17 pm »

If Trump does win by 14, I can't see how Blunt doesn't win.

Coattails aren't really a thing, though.

Repeating the same thing multiple times doesn't make it true. Blunt is just lucky that he's running in a n increasingly red state. If he were running in a swing state, he'd likely get Blanched.

If coattails were a thing, Heitkamp, Manchin, Donnelly, Collins, etc. wouldn't be Senators today and Blunt would be winning in a landslide. Granted, red states are more likely to split their tickets and vote for a Democrat for Senate or Governor than blue states, but still.
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« Reply #11 on: November 01, 2016, 12:37:49 pm »

Sh*t, it's so damn frustrating to see all those razor-thin Republican leads. If Blunt, Burr, Young and Ayotte all squeak in by a point or two I'm going to be PISSED.
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« Reply #12 on: November 01, 2016, 12:41:04 pm »

If Trump does win by 14, I can't see how Blunt doesn't win.

Coattails aren't really a thing, though.

Repeating the same thing multiple times doesn't make it true. Blunt is just lucky that he's running in a n increasingly red state. If he were running in a swing state, he'd likely get Blanched.

If coattails were a thing, Heitkamp, Manchin, Donnelly, Collins, etc. wouldn't be Senators today and Blunt would be winning in a landslide. Granted, red states are more likely to split their tickets and vote for a Democrat for Senate or Governor than blue states, but still.

Coattails are stronger in some states than others, and don't make candidate quality completely irrelevant. However, if they weren't a thing at all, I doubt ND and IN would have been anywhere near as close. I also doubt that the Senate races in OH, PA, VA, and WI that year (among others) would have been so close to the presidential election. Would Bruce Poliquin have beaten Emily Cain in 2012? Would Rod Blum have won in 2012? Would he even have a chance of winning this year if Hillary was doing well in Iowa, and Grassley wasn't running for re-election?
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Castro
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« Reply #13 on: November 01, 2016, 12:46:01 pm »

This has a recount feel all over it.
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« Reply #14 on: November 01, 2016, 12:53:16 pm »

Sh*t, it's so damn frustrating to see all those razor-thin Republican leads. If Blunt, Burr, Young and Ayotte all squeak in by a point or two I'm going to be PISSED.

Don't forget Heck!
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Jimmie
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« Reply #15 on: November 01, 2016, 12:54:22 pm »

Coattials are a thing, but overstated.

Coat tails are not a thing in Missouri.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #16 on: November 01, 2016, 12:59:35 pm »

Sh*t, it's so damn frustrating to see all those razor-thin Republican leads. If Blunt, Burr, Young and Ayotte all squeak in by a point or two I'm going to be PISSED.
Don't forget Heck and Toomey!

Edit: Ah, Ronnie was faster than me...
« Last Edit: November 01, 2016, 01:01:09 pm by Comrade David »Logged
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« Reply #17 on: November 01, 2016, 01:00:46 pm »

Sh*t, it's so damn frustrating to see all those razor-thin Republican leads. If Blunt, Burr, Young and Ayotte all squeak in by a point or two I'm going to be PISSED.

At least you'll still have your country's election Smiley
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Swedish Austerity Cheese
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« Reply #18 on: November 01, 2016, 03:44:14 pm »

Sh*t, it's so damn frustrating to see all those razor-thin Republican leads. If Blunt, Burr, Young and Ayotte all squeak in by a point or two I'm going to be PISSED.

At least you'll still have your country's election Smiley

Don't remind him of that. I'm pretty sure that if there is one thing that can make Tony even more depressed about the state of politics today it's bringing up the complete implosion of the French left and the horror show that is French politics.
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Figueira
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« Reply #19 on: November 01, 2016, 03:49:10 pm »

Sh*t, it's so damn frustrating to see all those razor-thin Republican leads. If Blunt, Burr, Young and Ayotte all squeak in by a point or two I'm going to be PISSED.

I will too, but this isn't really a bad poll for Kander considering that it also has Trump massively overperforming Romney.
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Associate Justice PiT
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« Reply #20 on: November 01, 2016, 04:19:51 pm »

Sh*t, it's so damn frustrating to see all those razor-thin Republican leads. If Blunt, Burr, Young and Ayotte all squeak in by a point or two I'm going to be PISSED.

At least you'll still have your country's election Smiley

Don't remind him of that. I'm pretty sure that if there is one thing that can make Tony even more depressed about the state of politics today it's bringing up the complete implosion of the French left and the horror show that is French politics.

     The probable second round of Sarkozy v. Le Pen will be delicious.
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QE
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« Reply #21 on: November 01, 2016, 05:35:04 pm »

The new SurveyMonkey poll has Kander +6. It's probably trash, but the headwinds do seem to be against Blunt, atm.
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Jimmie
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« Reply #22 on: November 01, 2016, 05:38:29 pm »

The new SurveyMonkey poll has Kander +6. It's probably trash, but the headwinds do seem to be against Blunt, atm.

Please show me a link!!
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« Reply #23 on: November 01, 2016, 05:43:08 pm »

The new SurveyMonkey poll has Kander +6. It's probably trash, but the headwinds do seem to be against Blunt, atm.

Please show me a link!!

Sorry, I'm not permitted to link until I hit 20+ posts.
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IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL
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« Reply #24 on: November 01, 2016, 08:51:33 pm »

If Trump does win by 14, I can't see how Blunt doesn't win.

Coattails aren't really a thing, though.

Repeating the same thing multiple times doesn't make it true. Blunt is just lucky that he's running in a n increasingly red state. If he were running in a swing state, he'd likely get Blanched.

If coattails were a thing, Heitkamp, Manchin, Donnelly, Collins, etc. wouldn't be Senators today and Blunt would be winning in a landslide. Granted, red states are more likely to split their tickets and vote for a Democrat for Senate or Governor than blue states, but still.

Coattails are stronger in some states than others, and don't make candidate quality completely irrelevant. However, if they weren't a thing at all, I doubt ND and IN would have been anywhere near as close. I also doubt that the Senate races in OH, PA, VA, and WI that year (among others) would have been so close to the presidential election. Would Bruce Poliquin have beaten Emily Cain in 2012? Would Rod Blum have won in 2012? Would he even have a chance of winning this year if Hillary was doing well in Iowa, and Grassley wasn't running for re-election?

I get your point, and there is no doubt that the national mood and factors affecting voter turnout influence these races. But in general I think the coattail effect is exaggerated - it really depends on the individual candidates and how strong they are/what kind of campaign they run, etc. I have no doubt that Democrats could have picked up North Dakota this year if Hoeven had retired, for example. Also keep in mind that even in 2014, many red and swing state Democrats like Begich kept it very close (despite the fact that their opponents were quite strong and 2014 was a good year for the GOP overall). I just doubt many people will change their mind on who they support in a downballot race based on who they support for president.

In this case, Roy Blunt basically took his race for granted and ran a very poor campaign, so Missouri's Republican lean likely won't be enough to save him in the end, even if Trump wins by 14 points. It also helps that Missouri is a state that likes to split tickets (see 2012, for example).  
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