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Author Topic: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8  (Read 11009 times)
Buh her emails!
diskymike44
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« Reply #25 on: November 01, 2016, 09:13:06 pm »

Come on Latinos!  Put the racist orange cheeto away!!!
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dspNY
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« Reply #26 on: November 01, 2016, 09:13:28 pm »

Senate numbers: Rubio 49, Murphy 43

The Senate numbers are legit
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Castro
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« Reply #27 on: November 01, 2016, 09:13:47 pm »

Quote
As of the morning of November 1st, 2016, TargetSmart tracks that 3,695,359 people have already cast their votes in Florida. Leveraging TargetSmart’s proprietary voter file - that is updated daily through the early voting window - this poll reached a significant number of voters who have already participated. Among those early voters (who were asked which candidate they had voted for), Clinton outpaces Trump by a 17-point margin, 55 to 38 percent.

Reflective of the trends that have been published in other public polls in recent days, the TargetSmart/William & Mary poll shows the contest in Florida is very competitive among those who have yet to cast their ballot. Among those non-early voters (who were asked which candidate they will vote for), Clinton attracts 42 percent of the vote and 43 percent back Donald Trump. The poll also shows the U.S. Senate race tilting decidedly in Marco Rubio’s direction as Democratic challenger Patrick Murphy trails Rubio 43 to 49 percent. Unlike Clinton, Murphy only breaks even with early voters, having garnered 48 percent of the vote among them to Rubio’s 47 percent. And, among non-early voters, Rubio holds a solid lead with 51 percent of the vote to Murphy’s 39 percent.
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IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL
IndyRep
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« Reply #28 on: November 01, 2016, 09:14:06 pm »

Um... suuure. Roll Eyes
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #29 on: November 01, 2016, 09:14:11 pm »

Haha, where are Dems who critisied A pollster SUSA's results in NC? You are pathetic Cheesy
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Ebowed
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« Reply #30 on: November 01, 2016, 09:14:20 pm »

Senate numbers: Rubio 49, Murphy 43

The Senate numbers are legit

That's very disappointing, but then again, Marco Rubio hasn't raped anyone - that we know of!
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Crumpets
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« Reply #31 on: November 01, 2016, 09:14:34 pm »

So, if the polls from today are to be believed, Florida will vote 15 points to the left of North Carolina. What year is it again?
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Arch
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« Reply #32 on: November 01, 2016, 09:14:52 pm »

Senate numbers: Rubio 49, Murphy 43

The Senate numbers are legit

Down ticket looks normal because of no Cuban crossover.
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peterthlee
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« Reply #33 on: November 01, 2016, 09:15:08 pm »

Great poll!!
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #34 on: November 01, 2016, 09:15:39 pm »

I do think alot of pollsters are having trouble with likely voter screens this year, and many latinos in Florida who vote early are less likely to be included in said voter screens.
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riceowl
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« Reply #35 on: November 01, 2016, 09:16:18 pm »

Yeah the people on Last Word need to keep it in their pants. This is an outlier, but you can actually see the drool.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #36 on: November 01, 2016, 09:17:02 pm »

Haha, where are Dems who critisied A pollster SUSA's results in NC? You are pathetic Cheesy

AGAIN: 538 is not gospel for measuring a pollsters worth.
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Green Line
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« Reply #37 on: November 01, 2016, 09:17:41 pm »

Haha, where are Dems who critisied A pollster SUSA's results in NC? You are pathetic Cheesy

AGAIN: 538 is not gospel for measuring a pollsters worth.

But your feelings are.
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #38 on: November 01, 2016, 09:17:46 pm »

I do think alot of pollsters are having trouble with likely voter screens this year, and many latinos in Florida who vote early are less likely to be included in said voter screens.

This also jives with Clinton's team driving more unlikely Latino's to the early vote and R's getting more reliable voters.

But this is one state where it makes sense that there would be a huge R cross-over, with Cubans in Miami-Dade.
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Hammy
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« Reply #39 on: November 01, 2016, 09:17:55 pm »

Junk.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #40 on: November 01, 2016, 09:18:27 pm »

Haha, where are Dems who critisied A pollster SUSA's results in NC? You are pathetic Cheesy

AGAIN: 538 is not gospel for measuring a pollsters worth.

But your feelings are.

We'll find out in a week.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #41 on: November 01, 2016, 09:18:43 pm »

The poll looks wacky but a lot of the numbers check out - there is a rise in female turnout and a rise in hispanic turnout. We'll have to see to find out.
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Arch
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« Reply #42 on: November 01, 2016, 09:18:50 pm »

I just noted in another thread earlier that people are underestimating the hispanic vote this cycle.  It is going to come out very strong for Hillary.  I wouldn't be surprised if she wins 80% of the hispanic vote nationally.

She's close to that in the reliable Latino Poll.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #43 on: November 01, 2016, 09:19:41 pm »

How stupid are people Red Hacks of Iowa Atlas? @ Mr. Trump

Roll Eyes


This election is over!!!!!1111
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #44 on: November 01, 2016, 09:19:57 pm »

This and the Trump +7 poll in NC. I'm just going to roll with it, today has been a bad polling day.
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #45 on: November 01, 2016, 09:20:25 pm »

I just noted in another thread earlier that people are underestimating the hispanic vote this cycle.  It is going to come out very strong for Hillary.  I wouldn't be surprised if she wins 80% of the hispanic vote nationally.

She's close to that in the reliable Latino Poll.

Latino Decisions had her above 70 with Hispanics in Florida...which was a huge increase over Obama.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #46 on: November 01, 2016, 09:20:38 pm »

How stupid are people Red Hacks of Iowa Atlas? @ Mr. Trump

Roll Eyes


This election is over!!!!!1111

Your welcome to leave. Smiley

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Arch
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« Reply #47 on: November 01, 2016, 09:20:56 pm »

How stupid are people Red Hacks of Iowa Atlas? @ Mr. Trump

Roll Eyes


This election is over!!!!!1111

Look at the poll's methodology and find the flaw. I've been pointing out important methodological factors towards the credibility of this poll. Rather than hurling personal insults en masse, go and find something to discuss.
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matthew27
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« Reply #48 on: November 01, 2016, 09:21:02 pm »

Note that this poll takes into account early votes that have already been cast, which is hugely important.

48% of the total 2012 vote is in with the early vote. This is huge.

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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #49 on: November 01, 2016, 09:21:20 pm »

JUNK WITH A CAPITAL J
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