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Author Topic: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8  (Read 11033 times)
rafta_rafta
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« Reply #50 on: November 01, 2016, 09:21:34 pm »

What's with the outliers today . Florida is not going to be decided by 8 points lol
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #51 on: November 01, 2016, 09:22:09 pm »

JUNK WITH A CAPITAL J

Maybe. We will find out in a week, wont we?
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #52 on: November 01, 2016, 09:22:19 pm »

This and the Trump +7 poll in NC. I'm just going to roll with it, today has been a bad polling day.

Eh, this poll has very sound methodology - they are able to go back to a voter registration list and call people. That gives you a really good sample and then you can model that sample to demographics, such as gender, race, partisan divide, etc...
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ReapSow
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« Reply #53 on: November 01, 2016, 09:22:44 pm »

Haha, where are Dems who critisied A pollster SUSA's results in NC? You are pathetic Cheesy

Do you live on this forum?
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Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
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« Reply #54 on: November 01, 2016, 09:23:19 pm »

How stupid are people Red Hacks of Iowa Atlas? @ Mr. Trump

Roll Eyes


This election is over!!!!!1111

Look at the poll's methodology and find the flaw. I've been pointing out important methodological factors towards the credibility of this poll. Rather than hurling personal insults en masse, go and find something to discuss.

I am not expert. I believe in average and history. You sems to be a proffs in everything though. Wasn't you the one scremaing about Russia-server that turned out to be a complete BS? Roll Eyes
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IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL
IndyRep
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« Reply #55 on: November 01, 2016, 09:23:34 pm »

Remind me again why this is more believable than the NC poll showing Trump up 7?
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Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
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« Reply #56 on: November 01, 2016, 09:24:24 pm »

This and the Trump +7 poll in NC. I'm just going to roll with it, today has been a bad polling day.

Eh, this poll has very sound methodology - they are able to go back to a voter registration list and call people. That gives you a really good sample and then you can model that sample to demographics, such as gender, race, partisan divide, etc...

Did you hear about Sienna/Upshot? A-pollster, you know? Tongue
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Arch
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« Reply #57 on: November 01, 2016, 09:24:42 pm »

How stupid are people Red Hacks of Iowa Atlas? @ Mr. Trump

Roll Eyes


This election is over!!!!!1111

Look at the poll's methodology and find the flaw. I've been pointing out important methodological factors towards the credibility of this poll. Rather than hurling personal insults en masse, go and find something to discuss.

I am not expert. I believe in average and history. You sems to be a proffs in everything though. Wasn't you the one scremaing about Russia-server that turned out to be a complete BS? Roll Eyes

I made a post on what was breaking in some news sites and updated it accordingly through until the NYT discredited it. Don't try and delegitimize one of my actions based on your misinterpretations of other actions that were also fine. Put up or shut up.
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BoAtlantis
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« Reply #58 on: November 01, 2016, 09:25:01 pm »

How stupid are people Red Hacks of Iowa Atlas? @ Mr. Trump

Roll Eyes


This election is over!!!!!1111

Look at the poll's methodology and find the flaw. I've been pointing out important methodological factors towards the credibility of this poll. Rather than hurling personal insults en masse, go and find something to discuss.

This pollster uses voter registration files so in theory, should be accurate.
But Siena/NYT, which also uses voter registration files came up with +4 Trump so who knows....
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Yank2133
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« Reply #59 on: November 01, 2016, 09:25:19 pm »

Remind me again why this is more believable than the NC poll showing Trump up 7?

Both are outliers, but at least these cross tabs are some what believable.
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #60 on: November 01, 2016, 09:25:51 pm »

How stupid are people Red Hacks of Iowa Atlas? @ Mr. Trump

Roll Eyes


This election is over!!!!!1111

Look at the poll's methodology and find the flaw. I've been pointing out important methodological factors towards the credibility of this poll. Rather than hurling personal insults en masse, go and find something to discuss.

Don't wrestle with pigs, Arch. I must ask you, though, that R crossover #....there's just no way, is there? There aren't enough Latino Rs to make that a reality. FL educated white crossover just can't be that high, right?
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Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
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« Reply #61 on: November 01, 2016, 09:26:20 pm »

How stupid are people Red Hacks of Iowa Atlas? @ Mr. Trump

Roll Eyes


This election is over!!!!!1111

Look at the poll's methodology and find the flaw. I've been pointing out important methodological factors towards the credibility of this poll. Rather than hurling personal insults en masse, go and find something to discuss.

This pollster uses voter registration files so in theory, should be accurate.
But Siena/NYT, which also uses voter registration files came up with +4 Trump so who knows....

Would it be smart to be more calm with D firm as this one? Just saying Cheesy
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Yank2133
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« Reply #62 on: November 01, 2016, 09:26:25 pm »

How stupid are people Red Hacks of Iowa Atlas? @ Mr. Trump

Roll Eyes


This election is over!!!!!1111

Look at the poll's methodology and find the flaw. I've been pointing out important methodological factors towards the credibility of this poll. Rather than hurling personal insults en masse, go and find something to discuss.

This pollster uses voter registration files so in theory, should be accurate.
But Siena/NYT, which also uses voter registration files came up with +4 Trump so who knows....

Siena/NYT did not account for new registrations.
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matthew27
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« Reply #63 on: November 01, 2016, 09:26:54 pm »

Is this like a exit poll for in person early voters?
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swf541
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« Reply #64 on: November 01, 2016, 09:26:58 pm »

Remind me again why this is more believable than the NC poll showing Trump up 7?

Because SUSA record in NC is utter trash and this poll seems methodologically sound.  That and the other numbers ie the senate look accurate
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #65 on: November 01, 2016, 09:27:15 pm »

Remind me again why this is more believable than the NC poll showing Trump up 7?

If I could say one positive thing about this poll...maybe because it's got better crosstabs...?

Idk, I still smell garbage everywhere.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #66 on: November 01, 2016, 09:27:20 pm »

Remind me again why this is more believable than the NC poll showing Trump up 7?

Because demographically it's more realistic. The Republican support for her is most likely inflated, but it's more plausible than the crosstabs of that SUSA poll.
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Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
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« Reply #67 on: November 01, 2016, 09:27:46 pm »

How stupid are people Red Hacks of Iowa Atlas? @ Mr. Trump

Roll Eyes


This election is over!!!!!1111

Look at the poll's methodology and find the flaw. I've been pointing out important methodological factors towards the credibility of this poll. Rather than hurling personal insults en masse, go and find something to discuss.

This pollster uses voter registration files so in theory, should be accurate.
But Siena/NYT, which also uses voter registration files came up with +4 Trump so who knows....

Siena/NYT did not account for new registrations.
Yeah. It caused this swing Sad
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BoAtlantis
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« Reply #68 on: November 01, 2016, 09:28:33 pm »

How stupid are people Red Hacks of Iowa Atlas? @ Mr. Trump

Roll Eyes


This election is over!!!!!1111

Look at the poll's methodology and find the flaw. I've been pointing out important methodological factors towards the credibility of this poll. Rather than hurling personal insults en masse, go and find something to discuss.

This pollster uses voter registration files so in theory, should be accurate.
But Siena/NYT, which also uses voter registration files came up with +4 Trump so who knows....

Siena/NYT did not account for new registrations.

That's a great point actually.

Nate Cohn is already challenging him lol

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
"Clinton's not winning 28% of registered Republican early voters in Florida. Just saying."
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Green Line
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« Reply #69 on: November 01, 2016, 09:28:59 pm »

For the love of god, can the mods please re-ban LittleBigPlanet already? This cretin has made about 120 posts today alone. His spamming is out of control at this point.

Can we get a two-for-one on that?
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #70 on: November 01, 2016, 09:29:45 pm »

For the love of god, can the mods please re-ban LittleBigPlanet already? This cretin has made about 120 posts today alone. His spamming is out of control at this point.

Can we get a two-for-one on that?
3 for 1?
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BoAtlantis
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« Reply #71 on: November 01, 2016, 09:30:02 pm »

Remind me again why this is more believable than the NC poll showing Trump up 7?

Because SUSA record in NC is utter trash and this poll seems methodologically sound.  That and the other numbers ie the senate look accurate

Survey USA used to be great but has been awful since 2014 according to Silver.

For whatever reason Silver still has them as "A" pollster because of their past accuracy before 2014.
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Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
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« Reply #72 on: November 01, 2016, 09:30:33 pm »

Quote
The TargetSmart/William & Mary Poll was conducted using a blended web/phone data collection approach. As weighted, 530 online interviews were conducted from October 25-28, 2016 among panelists from six leading online opt-in panel providers who were matched to the TargetSmart voter file.  As weighted, 188 telephone interviews were conducted from October 27-30, 2016 to supplement the online sample, with telephone numbers for targeted populations being selected at random from the TargetSmart voter file.
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Green Line
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« Reply #73 on: November 01, 2016, 09:30:51 pm »

Remind me again why this is more believable than the NC poll showing Trump up 7?

Because SUSA record in NC is utter trash and this poll seems methodologically sound.  That and the other numbers ie the senate look accurate

Survey USA used to be great but has been awful since 2014 according to Silver.

For whatever reason Silver still has them as "A" pollster because of their past accuracy before 2014.

#MakeSUSAGreatAgain
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #74 on: November 01, 2016, 09:31:02 pm »

What an absolutely tremendous result! Thank you Target -- low prices AND high quality shock polls!
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