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Author Topic: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8  (Read 11034 times)
IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL
IndyRep
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« Reply #75 on: November 01, 2016, 09:31:25 pm »

Remind me again why this is more believable than the NC poll showing Trump up 7?

If I could say one positive thing about this poll...maybe because it's got better crosstabs...?

Idk, I still smell garbage everywhere.

Honestly, I'm about to give up on the polls and just wait and see what happens on election day. I still think Clinton is favored to win FL, NV and the freiwal states and Trump is slightly favored to win in NC, IA and OH.

Marquette will probably show a close race in WI tomorrow and make this even more confusing.
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Mehmentum
Icefire9
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« Reply #76 on: November 01, 2016, 09:31:32 pm »

Throw it in the average.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #77 on: November 01, 2016, 09:31:36 pm »

How stupid are people Red Hacks of Iowa Atlas? @ Mr. Trump

Roll Eyes


This election is over!!!!!1111

Look at the poll's methodology and find the flaw. I've been pointing out important methodological factors towards the credibility of this poll. Rather than hurling personal insults en masse, go and find something to discuss.

This pollster uses voter registration files so in theory, should be accurate.
But Siena/NYT, which also uses voter registration files came up with +4 Trump so who knows....

Siena/NYT did not account for new registrations.

That's a great point actually.

Nate Cohn is already challenging him lol

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
"Clinton's not winning 28% of registered Republican early voters in Florida. Just saying."

Granted, Nates challenging the results with his own results.
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Arch
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« Reply #78 on: November 01, 2016, 09:31:45 pm »

How stupid are people Red Hacks of Iowa Atlas? @ Mr. Trump

Roll Eyes


This election is over!!!!!1111

Look at the poll's methodology and find the flaw. I've been pointing out important methodological factors towards the credibility of this poll. Rather than hurling personal insults en masse, go and find something to discuss.

Don't wrestle with pigs, Arch. I must ask you, though, that R crossover #....there's just no way, is there? There aren't enough Latino Rs to make that a reality. FL educated white crossover just can't be that high, right?

It's actually absolutely plausible and jives with what the Latino Poll has been finding with Hispanic voter numbers in FL that weren't reflected in typical polling, and I'll tell you why. Two reasons:

1) New Puerto Rican population influx over the years (heavy D)
2) Cuban Republicans (one of the most R Hispanic communities in the US) splitting tickets at the top because Trump is just that toxic

Cuban Republicans are a major reason why FL is still competitive for Republicans despite the huge Hispanic population. The crossover vote reveals what would happen to FL if R Cubans crossed over completely, which is something that has been happening cross-generationally, but not with the more reliable older voters who are splitting tickets this year.
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ReapSow
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« Reply #79 on: November 01, 2016, 09:31:53 pm »

For the love of god, can the mods please re-ban LittleBigPlanet already? This cretin has made about 120 posts today alone. His spamming is out of control at this point.
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morgieb
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« Reply #80 on: November 01, 2016, 09:32:19 pm »

Haha, where are Dems who critisied A pollster SUSA's results in NC? You are pathetic Cheesy
FWIW I'm not buying this. Although the gap between this and the Senate numbers are interesting. If there's a 15 point gap between North Carolina and Florida I'll eat my computer.

Think this is closer to reality than NC though.
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Green Line
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« Reply #81 on: November 01, 2016, 09:32:50 pm »

Throw it in the averagebasket.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #82 on: November 01, 2016, 09:33:09 pm »

Remind me again why this is more believable than the NC poll showing Trump up 7?

If I could say one positive thing about this poll...maybe because it's got better crosstabs...?

Idk, I still smell garbage everywhere.

Honestly, I'm about to give up on the polls and just wait and see what happens on election day. I still think Clinton is favored to win FL, NV and the freiwal states and Trump is slightly favored to win in NC, IA and OH.

Marquette will probably show a close race in WI tomorrow and make this even more confusing.
I felt like we had better polling in 2012.

My gut tells me Clinton is close in Iowa and Ohio, and will probably win both. Trump's not even trying to fight in the trenches at the point. Ground game is crucial and he's practically given up on it.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #83 on: November 01, 2016, 09:34:02 pm »

Remind me again why this is more believable than the NC poll showing Trump up 7?

If I could say one positive thing about this poll...maybe because it's got better crosstabs...?

Idk, I still smell garbage everywhere.

Honestly, I'm about to give up on the polls and just wait and see what happens on election day. I still think Clinton is favored to win FL, NV and the freiwal states and Trump is slightly favored to win in NC, IA and OH.

Marquette will probably show a close race in WI tomorrow and make this even more confusing.

Is it bad I think most pollster have no idea what they're doing this year? In fact, if they screw up this cycle then pollsters would have by and large gotten 3 cycles in a row wrong.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #84 on: November 01, 2016, 09:34:10 pm »

For the love of god, can the mods please re-ban LittleBigPlanet already? This cretin has made about 120 posts today alone. His spamming is out of control at this point.

Can we get a two-for-one on that?

For sure. Let's hope that the mods do their job and ban you and your fellow Klansmen from this website.

I thought GreenLine was voting for Clinton?
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Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
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« Reply #85 on: November 01, 2016, 09:34:13 pm »

For the love of god, can the mods please re-ban LittleBigPlanet already? This cretin has made about 120 posts today alone. His spamming is out of control at this point.
I'm capable to both retain quality and quantity on huuuuge level. Believe me.


Is this like their first poll ever? Public, at least? Roll Eyes
« Last Edit: November 01, 2016, 09:36:44 pm by Happy Sad Trumpista »Logged
Green Line
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« Reply #86 on: November 01, 2016, 09:34:54 pm »

For the love of god, can the mods please re-ban LittleBigPlanet already? This cretin has made about 120 posts today alone. His spamming is out of control at this point.

Can we get a two-for-one on that?

For sure. Let's hope that the mods do their job and ban you and your fellow Klansmen from this website.

I thought GreenLine was voting for Clinton?

I am lol.  He is like Marcobot stuck on repeat.
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NV less likely to flip than FL
xingkerui
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« Reply #87 on: November 01, 2016, 09:35:13 pm »

LOL at the people buying SUSA's NC poll, but calling this junk. Anyway, this is obviously too good to be true for Hillary, I highly doubt she'll get 28% of Republicans (though she'll definitely win some Cuban Republicans), but people were definitely too quick to assume that Hillary was dead and buried in FL.
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BundouYMB
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« Reply #88 on: November 01, 2016, 09:38:27 pm »

Now seems like a good time to remind people I predicted Clinton would win Florida by 9 points WEEKS ago. One more week 'till the Clintonslide!
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #89 on: November 01, 2016, 09:38:43 pm »

Hope this leads to a multi-page freakout too!

The winner!
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QE
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« Reply #90 on: November 01, 2016, 09:39:39 pm »

At the very least, hopefully this poll will trigger Trump into saying something uncouth. (...because you know he's going to see it if he hasn't already)
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mark_twain
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« Reply #91 on: November 01, 2016, 09:39:58 pm »

It is called a "Poll of Early and Likely Voters"--I like that name!

I think Clinton is enjoying an early vote advantage in many states including FL.

I would not be surprised if other state polls taking early and likely votes into account also go favorably for Clinton.

All in all, great poll!

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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #92 on: November 01, 2016, 09:41:34 pm »

If Marquette shows a Hillary +8 or something tomorrow twitter and this board will go absolutely ballistic.  
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Mike88
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« Reply #93 on: November 01, 2016, 09:43:52 pm »

No, i don't buy this. This numbers are as bizarre as the SUSA poll from NC.
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Ozymandias
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« Reply #94 on: November 01, 2016, 09:44:34 pm »

Note that TargetSmart's 55-37 early voter margin for Clinton is VERY close to the 54-37 margin NBC/Marist found for early voters last week, and also consistent with the 57-42 spread that Emerson found.

So the main difference between this poll and those two Clinton +1 polls boils down to the respondents in their samples who haven't voted yet.
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Hammy
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« Reply #95 on: November 01, 2016, 09:45:12 pm »

LOL at the people buying SUSA's NC poll, but calling this junk.

I think both are garbage, and still think both polls have the wrong person winning.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #96 on: November 01, 2016, 09:45:46 pm »

Note that TargetSmart's 55-37 early voter margin for Clinton is VERY close to 54-37 margin NBC/Marist found for early voters last week, and also consistent with 57-42 spread that Emerson found.

So the main difference between this poll and those two Clinton +1 polls boils down to the respondents in their samples who haven't voted yet.

Well it would be amazing if, because of sh**te ground game and claims that the election is rigged, Trump underperforms big league.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #97 on: November 01, 2016, 09:48:23 pm »

It seems to be on the high-end, but even if you bring it down, it is still good news for Clinton.
Yeahhhhh !
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Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
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« Reply #98 on: November 01, 2016, 09:49:32 pm »

Wait. You said that crosstabs are much more believable than SUSA:s, but there are no crosstabs split [how they voted]. Just demographics...

The only split they have ie EV vs non-EV. So how do you know that crosstabs make thinks? Or is there some other file than this one? Huh

https://www.scribd.com/document/329698329/TargetSmart-William-Mary-Florida-Poll-of-Early-and-Likely-Voters
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #99 on: November 01, 2016, 09:50:32 pm »

Scott Tranter, who is on "Team Rubio Analytics", just threw out this curveball of a tweet that has even experts in his comment section putting up question marks:

Quote
@jmartNYT
Whoa, @tbonier just said on @Lawrence the @_TargetSmart survey of FL early/absentee vote has Hillary winning 28% of reg Rs.
Quote
@stranter Scott Tranter

Surprised it took this long for one of these to leak
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