FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Full cross tabs are being released tomorrow.

Ok... So it seems like noone but me who actually looked at poll pdf. Everyone's just been screaming -- crosstabs... Lol

What we have is EV 55/38 to Clinton vs non-EV 43/42 to Trump.

And

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Is it really much more believable than SUSA:s ?

Oooook...


And the last one crosstabs Nate Cohn answered almost directly...

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All right...

And I am the one who is spamming, rrright?

[IceSpear]

LOL, about as believable as the NC poll.

[Ronnie]

Scott Tranter, who is on "Team Rubio Analytics", just threw out this curveball of a tweet that has even experts in his comment section putting up question marks:

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Wuh...

It probably means that he's seen data like that for a long time.

[IceSpear]

Remind me again why this is more believable than the NC poll showing Trump up 7?

Both are outliers, but at least these cross tabs are some what believable.

Hillary winning 28% of Republicans is not believable. Literally no other poll shows anything even remotely similar to this.

[Ozymandias]

Hillary winning 28% of Republicans is not believable. Literally no other poll shows anything even remotely similar to this.

Actually, they do-- NBC/Marist and Emerson both also show Clinton up among early voter by 15-18 points, and given Republican early voting numbers, that could only have happened with significant Republican crossover...

[Flake]

Lolno

[TC 25]

Not believable.

If it's anywhere close to true, the campaigns have both been wasting time in Florida.

Trump would be better off camping out in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

[Dr. Arch]

Remind me again why this is more believable than the NC poll showing Trump up 7?

Both are outliers, but at least these cross tabs are some what believable.

Hillary winning 28% of Republicans is not believable. Literally no other poll shows anything even remotely similar to this.

If Clinton is winning 28% of Republicans, she will win 40-45 states (including Texas). It means either this poll is wrong or every other poll is.

That's not how the share of Republican voters works in FL.

[IceSpear]

Hillary winning 28% of Republicans is not believable. Literally no other poll shows anything even remotely similar to this.

Actually, they do-- NBC/Marist and Emerson both also show Clinton up among early voter by 15-18 points, and given Republican early voting numbers, that could only have happened with significant Republican crossover...

And do their early voting samples actually match the real life demographics?

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

I think 11/1/2016 will forever go down as "Spooky Tuesday" in Presidential polling history.

[Dr. Arch]

Remind me again why this is more believable than the NC poll showing Trump up 7?

Both are outliers, but at least these cross tabs are some what believable.

Hillary winning 28% of Republicans is not believable. Literally no other poll shows anything even remotely similar to this.

If Clinton is winning 28% of Republicans, she will win 40-45 states (including Texas). It means either this poll is wrong or every other poll is.

That's not how the share of Republican voters works in FL.

Obama won 8% of the Republican vote in FL in 2012.

Romney was not repulsive to the Hispanic community to anywhere near the same degree, and a good chunk of R voters in FL are Hispanics as well.

[Ozymandias]

If Clinton is winning 28% of Republicans, she will win 40-45 states (including Texas). It means either this poll is wrong or every other poll is.

I think you're misunderstanding the results.

TargetSmart isn't claiming that Clinton is going to win 28% of ALL registered Republicans, just that she's won 28% of the roughly 43% (give or take) of Republicans who have already voted early.

Presumably that's because a lot of the Republicans who are actually angry enough to vote against Trump (as opposed to not voting at all) were motivated to do so early.

But if Hillary only gets, say, 7% of the remaining 57% of Republican votes, than she'll wind up with roughly 16% of the overall registered Republican vote.

Which is still a lot, but not necessarily unbelievable due to the large number of Cuban-American Republicans.

[Crumpets]

538 just adjusted this to Clinton +6. They also give it relatively little weight.

[Fargobison]

Remind me again why this is more believable than the NC poll showing Trump up 7?

Both are outliers, but at least these cross tabs are some what believable.

Hillary winning 28% of Republicans is not believable. Literally no other poll shows anything even remotely similar to this.

If Clinton is winning 28% of Republicans, she will win 40-45 states (including Texas). It means either this poll is wrong or every other poll is.

I don't think this is something you can carry over to other states, a lot of it would unique to FL with the Cuban population.

It does make sense that it would be inflated with early voting. Rubio is going to turn out a lot of Cuban voters. Clinton is probably targeting them as well.

[Speed of Sound]

If Clinton is winning 28% of Republicans, she will win 40-45 states (including Texas). It means either this poll is wrong or every other poll is.

I think you're misunderstanding the results.

TargetSmart isn't claiming that Clinton is going to win 28% of ALL registered Republicans, just that she's won 28% of the roughly 43% (give or take) of Republicans who have already voted early.

Presumably that's because a lot of the Republicans who are actually angry enough to vote against Trump (as opposed to not voting at all) were motivated to do so early.

But if Hillary only gets, say, 7% of the remaining 57% of Republican votes, than she'll wind up with roughly 16% of the overall registered Republican vote.

Which is still a lot, but not necessarily unbelievable due to the large number of Cuban-American Republicans.

This is a good and important point that allloootttt of people don't seem to be taking into account.

[PollsDontLie]

538 just adjusted this to Clinton +6. They also give it relatively little weight.

How did this poll push Trump's odds UP from 30.3 to 30.5% in their Nowcast?  I don't believe this poll, but I also don't see how the data point actually *helps* Trump.

[IceSpear]

538 just adjusted this to Clinton +6. They also give it relatively little weight.

How did this poll push Trump's odds UP from 30.3 to 30.5% in their Nowcast?  I don't believe this poll, but I also don't see how the data point actually *helps* Trump.

Because Nate Silver is a joke. Nothing will surprise me coming from the guy who thought Rhode Island was a swing state based off a junky Emerson poll.

[Speed of Sound]

538 just adjusted this to Clinton +6. They also give it relatively little weight.

How did this poll push Trump's odds UP from 30.3 to 30.5% in their Nowcast?  I don't believe this poll, but I also don't see how the data point actually *helps* Trump.

Because Nate Silver is a joke. Nothing will surprise me coming from the guy who thought Rhode Island was a swing state based off a junky Emerson poll.

His model has gotten odd in the last month or so. Every poll seems to do something other than you expect it to in the model. Not sure the reason. His topline is still reasonable enough, but the day to day is usually

[Xing]

Wouldn't it be funny if this ended up being the equivalent of the IA-SEN 2014 Selzer poll? Not saying it will be, but it would be something.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

How many has actually alredy voted in Florida. According to this poll is about 50%. Is it true?

            EV  non-EV
Clinton  (55  +  42)/2 = 48.5 = 48
Trump   (38  +  43)/2 = 40.5 = 40

And it is exactly what this polls shows 48 vs 40. WTF?

[Ozymandias]

How many has actually alredy voted in Florida?

311 of 718 (43.3%) respondents in the TargetSmart poll are known to have voted early.

For comparison, as of this morning, 4,077,521 voters in FL have voted early, which is 48.1% of the TOTAL (early + election-day) vote in 2012 (8,474,134).

[Erich Maria Remarque]

How many has actually alredy voted in Florida?

311 of 718 (43.3%) respondents in the TargetSmart poll are known to have voted early.

For comparison, as of this morning, 4,077,521 voters in FL have voted early, which is 48.1% of the TOTAL (early + election-day) vote in 2012 (8,474,134).

Wow, didn't know that EV was so popular in USA...

[Speed of Sound]

How many has actually alredy voted in Florida?

311 of 718 (43.3%) respondents in the TargetSmart poll are known to have voted early.

For comparison, as of this morning, 4,077,521 voters in FL have voted early, which is 48.1% of the TOTAL (early + election-day) vote in 2012 (8,474,134).

Wow, didn't know that EV was so popular in USA...

It's really a surging phenomenon. From 2000 to now, it's absolutely exploded. It was 16% in 2000, it could flirt with 50% this year.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

How many has actually alredy voted in Florida?

311 of 718 (43.3%) respondents in the TargetSmart poll are known to have voted early.

For comparison, as of this morning, 4,077,521 voters in FL have voted early, which is 48.1% of the TOTAL (early + election-day) vote in 2012 (8,474,134).

Wow, didn't know that EV was so popular in USA...

It's really a surging phenomenon. From 2000 to now, it's absolutely exploded. It was 16% in 2000, it could flirt with 50% this year.

I thought USA was behind Sweden
 In Sweden it is only 20-25%

[Crumpets]

How many has actually alredy voted in Florida?

311 of 718 (43.3%) respondents in the TargetSmart poll are known to have voted early.

For comparison, as of this morning, 4,077,521 voters in FL have voted early, which is 48.1% of the TOTAL (early + election-day) vote in 2012 (8,474,134).

Wow, didn't know that EV was so popular in USA...

It's really a surging phenomenon. From 2000 to now, it's absolutely exploded. It was 16% in 2000, it could flirt with 50% this year.

It'd probably be less necessary if there were anywhere near the appropriate amount of polling locations and voting on election day didn't mean waiting in line for several hours.