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Author Topic: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8  (Read 11032 times)
Ozymandias
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« Reply #125 on: November 01, 2016, 10:47:17 pm »

How many has actually alredy voted in Florida?

311 of 718 (43.3%) respondents in the TargetSmart poll are known to have voted early.

For comparison, as of this morning, 4,077,521 voters in FL have voted early, which is 48.1% of the TOTAL (early + election-day) vote in 2012 (8,474,134).

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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #126 on: November 01, 2016, 10:48:28 pm »

How many has actually alredy voted in Florida?

311 of 718 (43.3%) respondents in the TargetSmart poll are known to have voted early.

For comparison, as of this morning, 4,077,521 voters in FL have voted early, which is 48.1% of the TOTAL (early + election-day) vote in 2012 (8,474,134).



Wow, didn't know that EV was so popular in USA...
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #127 on: November 01, 2016, 10:50:33 pm »

How many has actually alredy voted in Florida?

311 of 718 (43.3%) respondents in the TargetSmart poll are known to have voted early.

For comparison, as of this morning, 4,077,521 voters in FL have voted early, which is 48.1% of the TOTAL (early + election-day) vote in 2012 (8,474,134).



Wow, didn't know that EV was so popular in USA...

It's really a surging phenomenon. From 2000 to now, it's absolutely exploded. It was 16% in 2000, it could flirt with 50% this year.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #128 on: November 01, 2016, 10:54:00 pm »

How many has actually alredy voted in Florida?

311 of 718 (43.3%) respondents in the TargetSmart poll are known to have voted early.

For comparison, as of this morning, 4,077,521 voters in FL have voted early, which is 48.1% of the TOTAL (early + election-day) vote in 2012 (8,474,134).



Wow, didn't know that EV was so popular in USA...

It's really a surging phenomenon. From 2000 to now, it's absolutely exploded. It was 16% in 2000, it could flirt with 50% this year.
I thought USA was behind Sweden Shocked
 In Sweden it is only 20-25%
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Crumpets
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« Reply #129 on: November 01, 2016, 10:54:31 pm »

How many has actually alredy voted in Florida?

311 of 718 (43.3%) respondents in the TargetSmart poll are known to have voted early.

For comparison, as of this morning, 4,077,521 voters in FL have voted early, which is 48.1% of the TOTAL (early + election-day) vote in 2012 (8,474,134).



Wow, didn't know that EV was so popular in USA...

It's really a surging phenomenon. From 2000 to now, it's absolutely exploded. It was 16% in 2000, it could flirt with 50% this year.

It'd probably be less necessary if there were anywhere near the appropriate amount of polling locations and voting on election day didn't mean waiting in line for several hours.
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Secret Cavern Survivor
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« Reply #130 on: November 01, 2016, 11:41:32 pm »

Two things:
- This is partially pre-Comey. I'd like to see the swing between the two periods if they have it.
- Even pre-Comey, this would have looked like an outlier. Outliers aren't worthless, though - especially in a State with lots of polls, throw them in the average and you'll tend to get a more accurate result.
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TC 25
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« Reply #131 on: November 01, 2016, 11:55:05 pm »

Go ahead and believe this poll at your own peril.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #132 on: November 01, 2016, 11:56:49 pm »

Two things:
- This is partially pre-Comey. I'd like to see the swing between the two periods if they have it.
- Even pre-Comey, this would have looked like an outlier. Outliers aren't worthless, though - especially in a State with lots of polls, throw them in the average and you'll tend to get a more accurate result.

Well, your reaction to this outlier was certainly more sane and measured than your reaction to the other one, LOL.
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Secret Cavern Survivor
Antonio V
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« Reply #133 on: November 02, 2016, 12:19:54 am »

Two things:
- This is partially pre-Comey. I'd like to see the swing between the two periods if they have it.
- Even pre-Comey, this would have looked like an outlier. Outliers aren't worthless, though - especially in a State with lots of polls, throw them in the average and you'll tend to get a more accurate result.

Well, your reaction to this outlier was certainly more sane and measured than your reaction to the other one, LOL.

I tend to react calmly to good news and more anxiously to bad news. It's part of a "better safe than sorry" mentality.
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Arch
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« Reply #134 on: November 02, 2016, 12:58:42 am »

They added the NC poll to RCP, but not this one. -eyeroll-
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« Reply #135 on: November 02, 2016, 01:18:07 am »

They added the NC poll to RCP, but not this one. -eyeroll-

SurveyUSA is a better-known pollster so to me the move makes sense.
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JJC
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« Reply #136 on: November 02, 2016, 02:16:04 am »

Two things:
- This is partially pre-Comey. I'd like to see the swing between the two periods if they have it.
- Even pre-Comey, this would have looked like an outlier. Outliers aren't worthless, though - especially in a State with lots of polls, throw them in the average and you'll tend to get a more accurate result.

Two things:
- It's a junk poll
- It's a junk poll
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #137 on: November 02, 2016, 04:00:59 am »

Hmm, questionable to say the least.
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #138 on: November 02, 2016, 04:19:59 am »

Hmm, questionable to say the least.

I hate to be a realist 'concern troll', but a poll that shows a suspiciously good picture for Clinton is about as likely to be trash as one that shows a suspiciously good picture for Trump (as in SUSA's NC poll).

Although of course it's possible that, with her ground game, Clinton's suspiciously good polls may turn out to be more accurate than Trump's suspiciously good polls.
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Donnie
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« Reply #139 on: November 02, 2016, 04:40:17 am »

Clinton +8 in FL ? Rigging polls as last line of defence...this is pathetic.
« Last Edit: November 02, 2016, 04:58:24 am by Donnie »Logged
Eraserhead
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« Reply #140 on: November 02, 2016, 04:57:32 am »

Hmm, questionable to say the least.

I hate to be a realist 'concern troll', but a poll that shows a suspiciously good picture for Clinton is about as likely to be trash as one that shows a suspiciously good picture for Trump (as in SUSA's NC poll).

Although of course it's possible that, with her ground game, Clinton's suspiciously good polls may turn out to be more accurate than Trump's suspiciously good polls.

I tend to more or less trust SUSA because I'm familiar with their track record though.  What's W&M/TargetSmart's record look like?
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Kalimantan
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« Reply #141 on: November 02, 2016, 06:21:40 am »

I must ask you, though, that R crossover #....there's just no way, is there? There aren't enough Latino Rs to make that a reality. FL educated white crossover just can't be that high, right?

The R crossover has been a defining feature of this election, though. Time after time we're hearing about R's who won't vote for Trump, because he's a sex pest / racist / unqualified / not a conservative / in bed with Russia  / whatever reason. The NeverTrump movement has been a thing, candidates for congress have been running away, parts of FoxNews have turned on him.

At some point this has to actually show up in the results, right? It can't just be minorities who are switching? Everyone right now on here is just assuming that R's are voting Trump, that early voting number showing strong R turnout has to be for Trump? Is this really all because of Comey?

28% is high, obviously. My theory, fwiw, is that some Independents who are basically solid Republican voters are self-identifying as registered Republicans so they can demonstrate that they are switching across the aisle to vote for Clinton this election.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #142 on: November 02, 2016, 06:23:12 am »

Should it has (D) in the title, because it is a Democratic political data firm Smiley
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Lok
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« Reply #143 on: November 02, 2016, 06:48:24 am »

Should it has (D) in the title, because it is a Democratic political data firm Smiley
Source for the claim?
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Brittain33
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« Reply #144 on: November 02, 2016, 06:56:19 am »

Should it has (D) in the title, because it is a Democratic political data firm Smiley
Source for the claim?

This isn't a controversial statement, they do consulting for Dems. It's googleable.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #145 on: November 02, 2016, 06:57:21 am »

Should it has (D) in the title, because it is a Democratic political data firm Smiley
Source for the claim?
I thought, Dems here said it in poll-hype thread?

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/how-many-registered-voters-are-in-america-2016-229993
Quote
But TargetSmart, a Democratic political data firm, told POLITICO that
http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-voting-irregularities-snap-story.html
Quote
On Tuesday, TargetSmart, a Democratic-affiliated group hired by Patriot Majority USA, said an analysis it ran of the Indiana
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/analysis-by-voter-group-finds-dead-people-likely-registered-in-indiana/
Quote
“There is clearly bad, missing and incomplete data,” said Tom Bonier, the CEO of TargetSmart, which is affiliated with the Democratic Party.
http://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-37634526
Quote
And though Democratic political data firm TargetSmart found that
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Lok
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« Reply #146 on: November 02, 2016, 07:07:08 am »

Should it has (D) in the title, because it is a Democratic political data firm Smiley
Source for the claim?
I thought, Dems here said it in poll-hype thread?

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/how-many-registered-voters-are-in-america-2016-229993
Quote
But TargetSmart, a Democratic political data firm, told POLITICO that
http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-voting-irregularities-snap-story.html
Quote
On Tuesday, TargetSmart, a Democratic-affiliated group hired by Patriot Majority USA, said an analysis it ran of the Indiana
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/analysis-by-voter-group-finds-dead-people-likely-registered-in-indiana/
Quote
“There is clearly bad, missing and incomplete data,” said Tom Bonier, the CEO of TargetSmart, which is affiliated with the Democratic Party.
http://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-37634526
Quote
And though Democratic political data firm TargetSmart found that

Well, I never saw it in the hype thread, but you only needed to show one source.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #147 on: November 02, 2016, 08:43:49 am »

https://www.scribd.com/document/329698329/TargetSmart-William-Mary-Florida-Poll-of-Early-and-Likely-Voters

Crosstabs up.

Registered Republicans
Trump 74
Clinton 20

Registered Democrat
Trump 13
Clinton 84

Registered Unaffiliated
Trump 43
Clinton 44

White
Trump 54
Clinton 40

Hispanic
Trump 31
Clinton 62

Black
Trump 3
Clinton 96
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #148 on: November 02, 2016, 08:47:02 am »

Well, I never saw it in the hype thread, but you only needed to show one source.

LBP is young, immature, and thinks he's clever. The quicker you learn to just siphon the occasional good out of his posts and just move on from him, the better for your health.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #149 on: November 02, 2016, 08:47:37 am »

Those... actually look reasonable
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