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Author Topic: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8  (Read 11036 times)
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« on: November 01, 2016, 09:06:52 pm »

Angry Puerto Ricans cometh with an unfolding fury of the gods.
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YaBB God
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« Reply #1 on: November 01, 2016, 09:09:47 pm »

Jives with the Rand National poll released earlier today.
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« Reply #2 on: November 01, 2016, 09:11:45 pm »

A lot of registered Republican Latino's are crossing over...thank you Cubans!

Yep, been saying it for a while.
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« Reply #3 on: November 01, 2016, 09:12:19 pm »

Note that this poll takes into account early votes that have already been cast, which is hugely important.
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« Reply #4 on: November 01, 2016, 09:14:52 pm »

Senate numbers: Rubio 49, Murphy 43

The Senate numbers are legit

Down ticket looks normal because of no Cuban crossover.
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« Reply #5 on: November 01, 2016, 09:18:50 pm »

I just noted in another thread earlier that people are underestimating the hispanic vote this cycle.  It is going to come out very strong for Hillary.  I wouldn't be surprised if she wins 80% of the hispanic vote nationally.

She's close to that in the reliable Latino Poll.
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« Reply #6 on: November 01, 2016, 09:20:56 pm »

How stupid are people Red Hacks of Iowa Atlas? @ Mr. Trump

Roll Eyes


This election is over!!!!!1111

Look at the poll's methodology and find the flaw. I've been pointing out important methodological factors towards the credibility of this poll. Rather than hurling personal insults en masse, go and find something to discuss.
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« Reply #7 on: November 01, 2016, 09:24:42 pm »

How stupid are people Red Hacks of Iowa Atlas? @ Mr. Trump

Roll Eyes


This election is over!!!!!1111

Look at the poll's methodology and find the flaw. I've been pointing out important methodological factors towards the credibility of this poll. Rather than hurling personal insults en masse, go and find something to discuss.

I am not expert. I believe in average and history. You sems to be a proffs in everything though. Wasn't you the one scremaing about Russia-server that turned out to be a complete BS? Roll Eyes

I made a post on what was breaking in some news sites and updated it accordingly through until the NYT discredited it. Don't try and delegitimize one of my actions based on your misinterpretations of other actions that were also fine. Put up or shut up.
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« Reply #8 on: November 01, 2016, 09:31:45 pm »

How stupid are people Red Hacks of Iowa Atlas? @ Mr. Trump

Roll Eyes


This election is over!!!!!1111

Look at the poll's methodology and find the flaw. I've been pointing out important methodological factors towards the credibility of this poll. Rather than hurling personal insults en masse, go and find something to discuss.

Don't wrestle with pigs, Arch. I must ask you, though, that R crossover #....there's just no way, is there? There aren't enough Latino Rs to make that a reality. FL educated white crossover just can't be that high, right?

It's actually absolutely plausible and jives with what the Latino Poll has been finding with Hispanic voter numbers in FL that weren't reflected in typical polling, and I'll tell you why. Two reasons:

1) New Puerto Rican population influx over the years (heavy D)
2) Cuban Republicans (one of the most R Hispanic communities in the US) splitting tickets at the top because Trump is just that toxic

Cuban Republicans are a major reason why FL is still competitive for Republicans despite the huge Hispanic population. The crossover vote reveals what would happen to FL if R Cubans crossed over completely, which is something that has been happening cross-generationally, but not with the more reliable older voters who are splitting tickets this year.
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« Reply #9 on: November 01, 2016, 10:11:17 pm »

Remind me again why this is more believable than the NC poll showing Trump up 7?

Both are outliers, but at least these cross tabs are some what believable.

Hillary winning 28% of Republicans is not believable. Literally no other poll shows anything even remotely similar to this.

If Clinton is winning 28% of Republicans, she will win 40-45 states (including Texas). It means either this poll is wrong or every other poll is.

That's not how the share of Republican voters works in FL.
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« Reply #10 on: November 01, 2016, 10:15:13 pm »

Remind me again why this is more believable than the NC poll showing Trump up 7?

Both are outliers, but at least these cross tabs are some what believable.

Hillary winning 28% of Republicans is not believable. Literally no other poll shows anything even remotely similar to this.

If Clinton is winning 28% of Republicans, she will win 40-45 states (including Texas). It means either this poll is wrong or every other poll is.

That's not how the share of Republican voters works in FL.

Obama won 8% of the Republican vote in FL in 2012.

Romney was not repulsive to the Hispanic community to anywhere near the same degree, and a good chunk of R voters in FL are Hispanics as well.
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« Reply #11 on: November 02, 2016, 12:58:42 am »

They added the NC poll to RCP, but not this one. -eyeroll-
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« Reply #12 on: November 03, 2016, 12:21:11 am »

Those... actually look reasonable

I'll film myself drinking from a toilet bowl if Hillary wins 20% of Republicans in FL. It's not gonna happen.

I'll hold you to this Tongue
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« Reply #13 on: November 03, 2016, 01:34:14 am »

The RCP averages show a near 0 race in FL. If a poll showed T+8 here, there would be a freak show of comments about junk poll. Of course it shows C+8 and you see "omg, its happening".
-Logic

RCP also didn't include this poll in their average, but did include the ones that had Trump ahead.
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