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Author Topic: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8  (Read 11008 times)
Ozymandias
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« on: November 01, 2016, 09:44:34 pm »

Note that TargetSmart's 55-37 early voter margin for Clinton is VERY close to the 54-37 margin NBC/Marist found for early voters last week, and also consistent with the 57-42 spread that Emerson found.

So the main difference between this poll and those two Clinton +1 polls boils down to the respondents in their samples who haven't voted yet.
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Ozymandias
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« Reply #1 on: November 01, 2016, 10:07:10 pm »

Hillary winning 28% of Republicans is not believable. Literally no other poll shows anything even remotely similar to this.

Actually, they do-- NBC/Marist and Emerson both also show Clinton up among early voter by 15-18 points, and given Republican early voting numbers, that could only have happened with significant Republican crossover...
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Ozymandias
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« Reply #2 on: November 01, 2016, 10:16:56 pm »

If Clinton is winning 28% of Republicans, she will win 40-45 states (including Texas). It means either this poll is wrong or every other poll is.

I think you're misunderstanding the results.

TargetSmart isn't claiming that Clinton is going to win 28% of ALL registered Republicans, just that she's won 28% of the roughly 43% (give or take) of Republicans who have already voted early.

Presumably that's because a lot of the Republicans who are actually angry enough to vote against Trump (as opposed to not voting at all) were motivated to do so early.

But if Hillary only gets, say, 7% of the remaining 57% of Republican votes, than she'll wind up with roughly 16% of the overall registered Republican vote.

Which is still a lot, but not necessarily unbelievable due to the large number of Cuban-American Republicans.
« Last Edit: November 01, 2016, 10:18:39 pm by Ozymandias »Logged
Ozymandias
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« Reply #3 on: November 01, 2016, 10:47:17 pm »

How many has actually alredy voted in Florida?

311 of 718 (43.3%) respondents in the TargetSmart poll are known to have voted early.

For comparison, as of this morning, 4,077,521 voters in FL have voted early, which is 48.1% of the TOTAL (early + election-day) vote in 2012 (8,474,134).

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Ozymandias
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« Reply #4 on: November 03, 2016, 12:29:28 pm »

This data visualization is kind of interesting:

Tom Bonier ‏@tbonier  4m4 minutes ago
Here's a pretty cool dashboard with our latest FL poll results. Dig in.. play around with the models/sliders/maps. http://targetsmart.com/TSWMP-florida/
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