absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[Speed of Sound]

Texas finishes early voting with 46% of registered voters voting. In 2012 it was 39.4%.

Very proud of the effort put in here in Travis County. I saw "I voted" stickers on students all week long. We broke records bigly this year in Austin!

[Antonio the Sixth]

Texas finishes early voting with 46% of registered voters voting. In 2012 it was 39.4%.

For comparison:

http://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/earlyvoting/2012/nov2.shtml

http://www.sos.state.tx.us/Elections/earlyvoting/2016/nov4.shtml

Edit: though I'm confused - are these totals just the counties highlighted in the table?

Which counties have seen the greatest increase? Is it still the urban centers + RG valley ones?

[riceowl]

Yes, the Travis county percentage is striking.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

What does Ralston say the absolute percentage of D voters relative to 2016? As red avatars were so fond of reminding us in 2012, many Independents are actually Republicans disgusted with the party's leadership (i.e. prime targets for Trump).

There's a huge difference between self identified independents in polls and the actual registered independents.

That being said, the OP is relying on Trump overperforming Romney with independents and Clinton only winning 82 (!) percent of Democrats. That math is nothing short of Dick Morris level insanity.

Both Trump and Clinton are apparently winning about 90% of their base according to Ralston, who has seen the hard data and Clinton is holding her own among independents.

It is over in NV, which means DT is likely toast and the OP knows this which is why he is lashing out.

What do you mean by hard data?

[Ozymandias]

Politico on FL early voting: Lean Clinton

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http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/florida-early-voting-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-230788

"The stats, however, show that it’s Republicans who are doing more cannibalization. About 22 percent of the Republicans who have so far voted had voted on Election Day in 2012. But only 20 percent of Democrats who have so far voted now voted on Election Day four years ago. Independents are right in between at 21 percent."

[Ozymandias]

What does Ralston say the absolute percentage of D voters relative to 2016? As red avatars were so fond of reminding us in 2012, many Independents are actually Republicans disgusted with the party's leadership (i.e. prime targets for Trump).

There's a huge difference between self identified independents in polls and the actual registered independents.

That being said, the OP is relying on Trump overperforming Romney with independents and Clinton only winning 82 (!) percent of Democrats. That math is nothing short of Dick Morris level insanity.

Both Trump and Clinton are apparently winning about 90% of their base according to Ralston, who has seen the hard data and Clinton is holding her own among independents.

It is over in NV, which means DT is likely toast and the OP knows this which is why he is lashing out.

What do you mean by hard data?

I believe that's a reference to internal polling of early voters from both Dems and Reps.

[Storebought]

Texas finishes early voting with 46% of registered voters voting. In 2012 it was 39.4%.

For comparison:

http://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/earlyvoting/2012/nov2.shtml

http://www.sos.state.tx.us/Elections/earlyvoting/2016/nov4.shtml

Edit: though I'm confused - are these totals just the counties highlighted in the table?

Singularly awful turnout rates from El Paso and the Rio Grande Valley

[izixs]

Texas finishes early voting with 46% of registered voters voting. In 2012 it was 39.4%.

For comparison:

http://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/earlyvoting/2012/nov2.shtml

http://www.sos.state.tx.us/Elections/earlyvoting/2016/nov4.shtml

Edit: though I'm confused - are these totals just the counties highlighted in the table?

Singularly awful turnout rates from El Paso and the Rio Grande Valley

Its instructive to look at the comparison (25%->35% for El Paso).

[Yank2133]

What does Ralston say the absolute percentage of D voters relative to 2016? As red avatars were so fond of reminding us in 2012, many Independents are actually Republicans disgusted with the party's leadership (i.e. prime targets for Trump).

There's a huge difference between self identified independents in polls and the actual registered independents.

That being said, the OP is relying on Trump overperforming Romney with independents and Clinton only winning 82 (!) percent of Democrats. That math is nothing short of Dick Morris level insanity.

Both Trump and Clinton are apparently winning about 90% of their base according to Ralston, who has seen the hard data and Clinton is holding her own among independents.

It is over in NV, which means DT is likely toast and the OP knows this which is why he is lashing out.

What do you mean by hard data?

Internal polling from both parties.

Clinton is apparently holding steady with her base. And I was actually wrong, Trump isn't getting 90% of the base.

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[ApatheticAustrian]

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https://twitter.com/Bencjacobs/status/794959598457327616?lang=de

i hope this could be communicated to the voting lines ASAP....

[Mallow]

Texas finishes early voting with 46% of registered voters voting. In 2012 it was 39.4%.

For comparison:

http://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/earlyvoting/2012/nov2.shtml

http://www.sos.state.tx.us/Elections/earlyvoting/2016/nov4.shtml

Edit: though I'm confused - are these totals just the counties highlighted in the table?

Singularly awful turnout rates from El Paso and the Rio Grande Valley

Huh? El Paso County had 96,189 early votes at this time in 2012 for a 2.82% share of the total statewide early voting. This year, it's at 150,446, for a share of 3.35%. That's a pretty substantial increase.

[riceowl]

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https://twitter.com/Bencjacobs/status/794959598457327616?lang=de

i hope this could be communicated to the voting lines ASAP....

This seems like really odd timing for an NC rally. Early voting finished a little while ago.

[Tender Branson]

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https://twitter.com/Bencjacobs/status/794959598457327616?lang=de

i hope this could be communicated to the voting lines ASAP....

This seems like really odd timing for an NC rally. Early voting finished a little while ago.

There's still election day, with a couple million more people voting there ...

[riceowl]

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https://twitter.com/Bencjacobs/status/794959598457327616?lang=de

i hope this could be communicated to the voting lines ASAP....

This seems like really odd timing for an NC rally. Early voting finished a little while ago.

There's still election day, with a couple million more people voting there ...

Yes, I just think it would have made more sense to have it earlier in the day. Idk. Yes, he needs to rally there, but seems like it could have been timed better. 

Or I'm just dumb and slightly hungover

[Speed of Sound]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://twitter.com/Bencjacobs/status/794959598457327616?lang=de

i hope this could be communicated to the voting lines ASAP....

This seems like really odd timing for an NC rally. Early voting finished a little while ago.

There's still election day, with a couple million more people voting there ...

You're absolutely right, of course. But one of the issues is I think NC has a "if you're in line, you can vote" rule for today. If that's true, he's cannibalizing a bit to have people at a rally who could be in line instead. Just seems poorly planned, as usual.

[Ozymandias]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://twitter.com/Bencjacobs/status/794959598457327616?lang=de

i hope this could be communicated to the voting lines ASAP....

This seems like really odd timing for an NC rally. Early voting finished a little while ago.

There's still election day, with a couple million more people voting there ...

Right, but why schedule the morning rally for FL and the afternoon event for NC, when if you did it the other way you could drive early voting in both places instead of just one?

And as others have noted, going to Reno the day after early voting ends in NV is just as dumb...

[Storebought]

Texas finishes early voting with 46% of registered voters voting. In 2012 it was 39.4%.

For comparison:

http://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/earlyvoting/2012/nov2.shtml

http://www.sos.state.tx.us/Elections/earlyvoting/2016/nov4.shtml

Edit: though I'm confused - are these totals just the counties highlighted in the table?

Singularly awful turnout rates from El Paso and the Rio Grande Valley

Huh? El Paso County had 96,189 early votes at this time in 2012 for a 2.82% share of the total statewide early voting. This year, it's at 150,446, for a share of 3.35%. That's a pretty substantial increase.

There are substantial increases in the early turnout of ultra-GOP suburbs like Collin as well. But Travis is notable.

[Ebsy]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://twitter.com/Bencjacobs/status/794959598457327616?lang=de

i hope this could be communicated to the voting lines ASAP....

This seems like really odd timing for an NC rally. Early voting finished a little while ago.

There's still election day, with a couple million more people voting there ...

Right, but why schedule the morning rally for FL and the afternoon event for NC, when if you did it the other way you could drive early voting in both places instead of just one?

And as others have noted, going to Reno the day after early voting ends in NV is just as dumb...

Like I have stated, I very much doubt Trump has any sort of coherent strategy and it just jetting around to confuse the press and create the appearance of a campaign in motion.

[riceowl]

Texas finishes early voting with 46% of registered voters voting. In 2012 it was 39.4%.

For comparison:

http://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/earlyvoting/2012/nov2.shtml

http://www.sos.state.tx.us/Elections/earlyvoting/2016/nov4.shtml

Edit: though I'm confused - are these totals just the counties highlighted in the table?

Singularly awful turnout rates from El Paso and the Rio Grande Valley

Huh? El Paso County had 96,189 early votes at this time in 2012 for a 2.82% share of the total statewide early voting. This year, it's at 150,446, for a share of 3.35%. That's a pretty substantial increase.

There are substantial increases in the early turnout of ultra-GOP suburbs like Collin as well. But Travis is notable.

And Harris, and Bexar, and Dallas...

[Mallow]

Texas finishes early voting with 46% of registered voters voting. In 2012 it was 39.4%.

For comparison:

http://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/earlyvoting/2012/nov2.shtml

http://www.sos.state.tx.us/Elections/earlyvoting/2016/nov4.shtml

Edit: though I'm confused - are these totals just the counties highlighted in the table?

Singularly awful turnout rates from El Paso and the Rio Grande Valley

Huh? El Paso County had 96,189 early votes at this time in 2012 for a 2.82% share of the total statewide early voting. This year, it's at 150,446, for a share of 3.35%. That's a pretty substantial increase.

There are substantial increases in the early turnout of ultra-GOP suburbs like Collin as well. But Travis is notable.

Ya, I guess my point was that numbers are up all around, but El Paso doesn't strike me as underperforming compared to 2012.

[Devout Centrist]

Texas ain't going Dem, but it will trend that way.

[win win]

In reality, if only a small percentage of these D voters move to the Trump camp it will make a race very close.

For example, in Nevada there is a 6% difference between registered D votes and registered R votes.
If only 3% more of these D votes switch to Trump than registered R switch to Clinton, Trump will win, providing he does well with independents.

In fact, in the recent CNN poll in Nevada, there were 8% more registered D voters in this poll but Trump won by 6%.

 
Go to page 7 if you don't believe me:
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2016/images/11/02/relnv3.pdf

How do you or anyone know who these D, R and I registered voters are voting for?

[Ebsy]

A really terrible CNN poll is not the solidest of evidence for your little theory here champ.

[Speed of Sound]

Can we get a Sparks-style megathread for this guy? Thanks.

[win win]

A really terrible CNN poll is not the solidest of evidence for your little theory here champ.

Every Nevada poll assumes there are more registered D voters than R voters. It's already baked in. I am simply pointing out, you cannot draw a conclusion from looking at the party registration.