absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[Ozymandias]

Here's the current state-by-state breakdown of the "Advance" (= Absentee/Mail-in + Early In-Person) vote.

The election is already more than half over in AZ, NV, & FL-- and perhaps CO & NC too by the end of the day...

State 2016 Advance Vote / 2012 Total Vote = Percentage
USA   31,191,741   /   128,925,332   =   24.19%
AZ   1,370,746   /   2,298,802   =   59.63%
TN   1,403,731   /   2,458,577   =   57.10%
NV   561,813   /   1,014,918   =   55.36%
FL   4,466,624   /   8,474,134   =   52.71%
CO   1,217,166   /   2,569,516   =   47.37%
NC   2,098,045   /   4,493,301   =   46.69%
OR   809,984   /   1,775,995   =   45.61%
MT   220,316   /   483,932   =   45.53%
GA   1,708,490   /   3,897,839   =   43.83%
TX   3,311,159   /   7,991,197   =   41.44%
WA   1,235,614   /   3,125,516   =   39.53%
NM   294,537   /   783,758   =   37.58%
AR   342,683   /   1,069,468   =   32.04%
IA   472,085   /   1,574,738   =   29.98%
UT   284,841   /   1,017,401   =   28.00%
MD   703,399   /   2,697,018   =   26.08%
LA   515,181   /   1,994,065   =   25.84%
CA   3,329,133   /   13,015,298   =   25.58%
ID   144,872   /   652,274   =   22.21%
MA   700,000   /   3,161,215   =   22.14%
ME   155,554   /   711,053   =   21.88%
HI   91,400   /   434,539   =   21.03%
KS   242,043   /   1,158,833   =   20.89%
ND   65,466   /   321,072   =   20.39%
SD   73,446   /   363,815   =   20.19%
DC   57,865   /   292,992   =   19.75%
OH   1,054,912   /   5,580,715   =   18.90%
NE   148,634   /   790,662   =   18.80%
WI   567,663   /   3,063,064   =   18.53%
MI   854,921   /   4,722,988   =   18.10%
IN   472,707   /   2,623,541   =   18.02%
WV   116,561   /   670,438   =   17.39%
WY   40,332   /   247,026   =   16.33%
VT   44,968   /   297,247   =   15.13%
SC   267,007   /   1,964,118   =   13.59%
IL   708,976   /   5,241,179   =   13.53%
AK   36,229   /   297,625   =   12.17%
VA   341,480   /   3,847,243   =   8.88%
MN   250,123   /   2,925,920   =   8.55%
OK   63,981   /   1,334,872   =   4.79%
NJ   172,013   /   3,638,499   =   4.73%
KY   73,335   /   1,796,832   =   4.08%
DE   16,352   /   413,890   =   3.95%
RI   14,285   /   444,668   =   3.21%
MO   55,503   /   2,757,323   =   2.01%
MS   13,167   /   1,285,584   =   1.02%
AL   2,399   /   2,070,327   =   0.12%
CT   0   /   1,558,132   =   0.00%
NH   0   /   708,399   =   0.00%
NY   0   /   7,071,734   =   0.00%
PA   0   /   5,742,040   =   0.00%

Source: http://www.electproject.org/early_2016

[Xing]

What i love about the Media is all the talk about Arizona and GA being in play and even serious talk about Texas. Yet, if it was the other way around and this VA poll came out they would be polling the state every day, haven't seen many polls either on Minn & Michigan, wonder why? If these were normally red states they would be polling these states every few days. Blast away...

Ground game is important, and there are enormous efforts to turn out new and/or "unlikely" voters in these states. It might not be enough to flip them, but if there was one thing to take away from the Obama elections, it was that organization matters.

[PresidentTRUMP]

Here's the current state-by-state breakdown of the "Advance" (= Absentee/Mail-in + Early In-Person) vote.

The election is already more than half over in AZ, NV, & FL-- and probably CO & NC too by the end of the day...

State 2016 Advance Vote / 2012 Total Vote = Percentage
USA   31,191,741   /   128,925,332   =   24.19%
AZ   1,370,746   /   2,298,802   =   59.63%
TN   1,403,731   /   2,458,577   =   57.10%
NV   561,813   /   1,014,918   =   55.36%
FL   4,466,624   /   8,474,134   =   52.71%
CO   1,217,166   /   2,569,516   =   47.37%
NC   2,098,045   /   4,493,301   =   46.69%
OR   809,984   /   1,775,995   =   45.61%
MT   220,316   /   483,932   =   45.53%
GA   1,708,490   /   3,897,839   =   43.83%
TX   3,311,159   /   7,991,197   =   41.44%
WA   1,235,614   /   3,125,516   =   39.53%
NM   294,537   /   783,758   =   37.58%
AR   342,683   /   1,069,468   =   32.04%
IA   472,085   /   1,574,738   =   29.98%
UT   284,841   /   1,017,401   =   28.00%
MD   703,399   /   2,697,018   =   26.08%
LA   515,181   /   1,994,065   =   25.84%
CA   3,329,133   /   13,015,298   =   25.58%
ID   144,872   /   652,274   =   22.21%
MA   700,000   /   3,161,215   =   22.14%
ME   155,554   /   711,053   =   21.88%
HI   91,400   /   434,539   =   21.03%
KS   242,043   /   1,158,833   =   20.89%
ND   65,466   /   321,072   =   20.39%
SD   73,446   /   363,815   =   20.19%
DC   57,865   /   292,992   =   19.75%
OH   1,054,912   /   5,580,715   =   18.90%
NE   148,634   /   790,662   =   18.80%
WI   567,663   /   3,063,064   =   18.53%
MI   854,921   /   4,722,988   =   18.10%
IN   472,707   /   2,623,541   =   18.02%
WV   116,561   /   670,438   =   17.39%
WY   40,332   /   247,026   =   16.33%
VT   44,968   /   297,247   =   15.13%
SC   267,007   /   1,964,118   =   13.59%
IL   708,976   /   5,241,179   =   13.53%
AK   36,229   /   297,625   =   12.17%
VA   341,480   /   3,847,243   =   8.88%
MN   250,123   /   2,925,920   =   8.55%
OK   63,981   /   1,334,872   =   4.79%
NJ   172,013   /   3,638,499   =   4.73%
KY   73,335   /   1,796,832   =   4.08%
DE   16,352   /   413,890   =   3.95%
RI   14,285   /   444,668   =   3.21%
MO   55,503   /   2,757,323   =   2.01%
MS   13,167   /   1,285,584   =   1.02%
AL   2,399   /   2,070,327   =   0.12%
CT   0   /   1,558,132   =   0.00%
NH   0   /   708,399   =   0.00%
NY   0   /   7,071,734   =   0.00%
PA   0   /   5,742,040   =   0.00%

so about 70% give or take of the total votes casted for the election will be on election day. LOVE how PA doesn't have EV. Also love to see that EV in MI & WI will be only 25-30% of the voting on election day as well as VA & MN currently having under 10% of EV of the total vote in 2012.

[Ozymandias]

so about 70% give or take of the total votes casted for the election will be on election day.

No, the pace is well ahead of 2012, when the early vote was 36% of the total.

I think at least 40% of the total vote will be cast before election day,  and it might even be closer to 50% than 40%.

[Mallow]

What i love about the Media is all the talk about Arizona and GA being in play and even serious talk about Texas. Yet, if it was the other way around and this VA poll came out they would be polling the state every day, haven't seen many polls either on Minn & Michigan, wonder why? If these were normally red states they would be polling these states every few days. Blast away...

Huh? The people talking about AZ, at least, are basing it on more than just a single (outlier) poll.

[PresidentTRUMP]

so about 70% give or take of the total votes casted for the election will be on election day.

No, the pace is well ahead of 2012, when the early vote was 36% of the total.

I think at least 40% of the total vote will be cast before election day,  and it might even be closer to 50% than 40%.

There expecting enormous turnout this election so the total votes casted will be much higher than 2012.

If Trump is ahead or withing striking distance in most of these battle ground states come election day, I like our chances a lot. One thing i know for sure is Trump supporters are 1000% showing up to vote. Hillary supporters well, some of them may just have something better to do that day and I am not convinced people will be energized to show up on election day and wait hours in line to cast a vote for her. Trump supporters would wait 10 hours in line to vote for him on election day. Kind of like Obama voters in 2012, they were showing up and voting no matter how long it took to actually get to the ballot.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

If you included 2012 numbers for the states we don't have any data for yet this year, we're basically already past 2012's total early vote.

Wow. Is the any estimation of turnout (total, not just EV). I recall a poll from Gallup that predicted smaller turnout than 2012. But it is old.

Intresting...

[Kalimantan]

so about 70% give or take of the total votes casted for the election will be on election day.

No, the pace is well ahead of 2012, when the early vote was 36% of the total.

I think at least 40% of the total vote will be cast before election day,  and it might even be closer to 50% than 40%.

There expecting enormous turnout this election so the total votes casted will be much higher than 2012.

If Trump is ahead or withing striking distance in most of these battle ground states come election day, I like our chances a lot. One thing i know for sure is Trump supporters are 1000% showing up to vote. Hillary supporters well, some of them may just have something better to do that day and I am not convinced people will be energized to show up on election day and wait hours in line to cast a vote for her. Trump supporters would wait 10 hours in line to vote for him on election day. Kind of like Obama voters in 2012, they were showing up and voting no matter how long it took to actually get to the ballot.

I'm sure there are some very energised Trump voters, I think you have to be energised to be a Trump voter

Although if they are 1000% turning out to vote, why would they not be early-voting at the same rate as Clinton voters?

 and please don't underestimate the appeal for women to vote for the first woman president

[Mallow]

so about 70% give or take of the total votes casted for the election will be on election day.

No, the pace is well ahead of 2012, when the early vote was 36% of the total.

I think at least 40% of the total vote will be cast before election day,  and it might even be closer to 50% than 40%.

There expecting enormous turnout this election so the total votes casted will be much higher than 2012.

If Trump is ahead or withing striking distance in most of these battle ground states come election day, I like our chances a lot. One thing i know for sure is Trump supporters are 1000% showing up to vote. Hillary supporters well, some of them may just have something better to do that day and I am not convinced people will be energized to show up on election day and wait hours in line to cast a vote for her. Trump supporters would wait 10 hours in line to vote for him on election day. Kind of like Obama voters in 2012, they were showing up and voting no matter how long it took to actually get to the ballot.

I'm sure there are some very energised Trump voters, I think you have to be energised to be a Trump voter

Although if they are 1000% turning out to vote, why would they not be early-voting at the same rate as Clinton voters?

 and please don't underestimate the appeal for women to vote for the first woman president

Not to mention voting against one of the most openly misogynistic (amongst so many other "isms") candidates in recent memory.

[PresidentTRUMP]

so about 70% give or take of the total votes casted for the election will be on election day.

No, the pace is well ahead of 2012, when the early vote was 36% of the total.

I think at least 40% of the total vote will be cast before election day,  and it might even be closer to 50% than 40%.

There expecting enormous turnout this election so the total votes casted will be much higher than 2012.

If Trump is ahead or withing striking distance in most of these battle ground states come election day, I like our chances a lot. One thing i know for sure is Trump supporters are 1000% showing up to vote. Hillary supporters well, some of them may just have something better to do that day and I am not convinced people will be energized to show up on election day and wait hours in line to cast a vote for her. Trump supporters would wait 10 hours in line to vote for him on election day. Kind of like Obama voters in 2012, they were showing up and voting no matter how long it took to actually get to the ballot.

I'm sure there are some very energised Trump voters, I think you have to be energised to be a Trump voter

Although if they are 1000% turning out to vote, why would they not be early-voting at the same rate as Clinton voters?

and please don't underestimate the appeal for women to vote for the first woman president

LOL...AA rightfully so voted and turned out in historic proportions for President Obama the first AA president. Based on numerous things in our history as a County. I even admit if i were AA and President Obama was running I would almost certainly casted my vote for him. Politically speaking he stands for almost everything I don't stand for but it would have meant more to me than political views. Comparing how Women will vote to AA when Obama ran is flawed in so many different ways.

Not to mention this is Hillary Clinton running as the first female president. There might actually be something to your statement if it was a woman without half the baggage she has. If Elizabeth Warren was at the top of the ticket or Kristen Gillibrand, your statement would probably hold a lot of weight, but it holds very LITTLE weight since it happens to be Hillary Clinton (arguably the most corrupt individual to ever seek the highest office in the world).

If I am right and Trump does win, everyone pretty much knows there will be a woman president most likely in the next few cycles, who isn't half as corrupt as Ms. Clinton and that said person will probably make a wonderful president.

[Crumpets]

Here's a map of the total vote so far (Atlas color scale):



A couple observations:

- The upper Midwest has returned relatively few ballots, meaning if Trump has a late surge, this might be a good place for him, along with PA and NH.

- States like Arizona will have their October vote be roughly half of their total vote, a time when Clinton was doing pretty darn well. This means if Trump wants to even get the numbers he's currently polling at, they average November vote for him will have to be twice as favorable to him compared to October numbers. So, for example, if Clinton was up by 1 in Arizona on average in October and Trump is currently up 4, he has to hope to be up 9 by the end of the election to average +4 overall. And it really doesn't matter if the early vote or the election-day vote skews left or right compared to the populace as a whole as long as there's a steady stream of swing voters throughout the voting process.

[The Other Castro]

Mark Murray and Dave Wasserman discuss the possibility of Election Day EV cannibalization by Republicans in Florida:

Dave Wasserman‏ @Redistrict
Top FL early vote increases vs. '12 *totals:*
1. Lee (R) +42%
2. Manatee (R) +40%
3. Sumter (R) +22%
4. Baker (R) +21%
5. Hernando (R) +15%

Dave Wasserman ‏@Redistrict
In Sumter, FL (The Villages), early ballots cast so far are already at 88% of the *entire* number of votes cast there in 2012 (67% Romney).

Dave Wasserman ‏@Redistrict
Some of that is pop growth. But for comparison, FL's statewide early ballots at 52% of '12 total votes cast. Miami-Dade at 57%, Leon 39%.

Mark Murray‏ @mmurraypolitics Mark Murray Retweeted Dave Wasserman
With those kinds of increases from places like The Villages (Sumter), how much GOP vote will be left on Elex Day?

[The Other Castro]

Also, before a mod comes in and says it, can we please keep discussion here to early vote updates and analysis? Take the long arguments elsewhere.

[Crumpets]

Mark Murray and Dave Wasserman discuss the possibility of Election Day EV cannibalization by Republicans in Florida:

Dave Wasserman‏ @Redistrict
Top FL early vote increases vs. '12 *totals:*
1. Lee (R) +42%
2. Manatee (R) +40%
3. Sumter (R) +22%
4. Baker (R) +21%
5. Hernando (R) +15%

Dave Wasserman ‏@Redistrict
In Sumter, FL (The Villages), early ballots cast so far are already at 88% of the *entire* number of votes cast there in 2012 (67% Romney).

Dave Wasserman ‏@Redistrict
Some of that is pop growth. But for comparison, FL's statewide early ballots at 52% of '12 total votes cast. Miami-Dade at 57%, Leon 39%.

Mark Murray‏ @mmurraypolitics Mark Murray Retweeted Dave Wasserman
With those kinds of increases from places like The Villages (Sumter), how much GOP vote will be left on Elex Day?

I've said this a couple of times, but I don't think Democrats should worry too much about cannibalizing election day vote in states like FL, NC, and OH. They can't afford to have the hideous lines from 2012 if they want turnout to be as high as they're hoping.

[JerryArkansas]

Was early voting made easier in MA.  They are now at 262% of 2012 early vote with two days to go.

[The Other Castro]

Was early voting made easier in MA.  They are now at 262% of 2012 early vote with two days to go.

Now if only there was something exciting going on in MA...

[JerryArkansas]

Was early voting made easier in MA.  They are now at 262% of 2012 early vote with two days to go.

Now if only there was something exciting going on in MA...

I know about the referendum, I was just wondering if it was just due to that or if the rules have been loosened.

[Classic Conservative]

Was early voting made easier in MA.  They are now at 262% of 2012 early vote with two days to go.

Now if only there was something exciting going on in MA...

I know about the referendum, I was just wondering if it was just due to that or if the rules have been loosened.

It used to only be, excuse-required absentee. Now anybody can vote without a reason. That is why it is 262% of 2012

[psychprofessor]

Nate Cohn throwing some cold water on Trump in NC

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  6m6 minutes ago Washington, DC
NC early voters who didn't vote in 2012:
White: C 43, T 45 (v. 35-55 among e.v. who vtd in 12)
Nonwhite: C 97 T 2 (v. 90-6 among vt in 12)

 Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  21m21 minutes ago Washington, DC
Upshot/Siena polling of North Carolina early voters who *didn't* vote in 2012 (n=133): Clinton 57, Trump 34

[dspNY]

Nate Cohn throwing some cold water on Trump in NC

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  6m6 minutes ago Washington, DC
NC early voters who didn't vote in 2012:
White: C 43, T 45 (v. 35-55 among e.v. who vtd in 12)
Nonwhite: C 97 T 2 (v. 90-6 among vt in 12)

 Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  21m21 minutes ago Washington, DC
Upshot/Siena polling of North Carolina early voters who *didn't* vote in 2012 (n=133): Clinton 57, Trump 34

If African-American turnout improves in the last few days of the early voting period Trump is toast in NC

[alomas]

I think it's fair to say NC is a dead heat right now, it could go either way really.

[dspNY]

I think it's fair to say NC is a dead heat right now, it could go either way really.

I think Clinton is up 2-3 but it is still winnable for the Republicans

[psychprofessor]

I think it's fair to say NC is a dead heat right now, it could go either way really.

I don't think it's fair to say that.

[alomas]

538 has her 0.2 up in polls-only. Hardly a big advantage, black turnout is down as well.

[psychprofessor]

538 has her 0.2 up in polls-only. Hardly a big advantage, black turnout is down as well.

Trump hasn't led a live interview poll of North Carolina since September