absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[dspNY]

A clerical note on Florida: Today was the final day where voters were allowed to request a VBM ballot. So the VBM requests lock in after tomorrow. It's all about returning them now. I think (and Schale might think this too) that the GOP is cannibalizing some of their E-Day turnout with the VBM since this is the first time 2012 and 2014 active voters were mailed ballots

[alomas]

Florida updates are in the early morning, US East Coast time. They usually make 3 or 4

Thanks. Currently R are about 18,000 votes ahead, if that holds up to the Election Day then I can't see Trump losing it. D won it by 177,000 in 2012 apparently so a big difference.

[dspNY]

Florida updates are in the early morning, US East Coast time. They usually make 3 or 4

Thanks. Currently R are about 18,000 votes ahead, if that holds up to the Election Day then I can't see Trump losing it. D won it by 177,000 in 2012 apparently so a big difference.

Dems won the early in-person vote by that much but lost the VBM by about 80K so Obama had a 90K or so lead in Party ID going into E-Day. He won FL by 64K

[GeorgiaModerate]

A clerical note on Florida: Today was the final day where voters were allowed to request a VBM ballot. So the VBM requests lock in after tomorrow. It's all about returning them now. I think (and Schale might think this too) that the GOP is cannibalizing some of their E-Day turnout with the VBM since this is the first time 2012 and 2014 active voters were mailed ballots

Wouldn't the cannibalization also be true of people who voted Democratic in 2012/14?

[dspNY]

A clerical note on Florida: Today was the final day where voters were allowed to request a VBM ballot. So the VBM requests lock in after tomorrow. It's all about returning them now. I think (and Schale might think this too) that the GOP is cannibalizing some of their E-Day turnout with the VBM since this is the first time 2012 and 2014 active voters were mailed ballots

Wouldn't the cannibalization also be true of people who voted Democratic in 2012/14?

Possible. But Schale is saying that the Dems are getting more low-propensity voters to the polls

[ApatheticAustrian]

1) dem 2014 voters are a joke.
2) in fact yes, that's why there are surprisingly more total dem mail ballot votes than republican ones. (not returned yet)
3) since the dems bled in reg numbers, this is more like unveiling true voter numbers.

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

Florida updates are in the early morning, US East Coast time. They usually make 3 or 4

Thanks. Currently R are about 18,000 votes ahead, if that holds up to the Election Day then I can't see Trump losing it. D won it by 177,000 in 2012 apparently so a big difference.

Dems won the early in-person vote by that much but lost the VBM by about 80K so Obama had a 90K or so lead in Party ID going into E-Day. He won FL by 64K

Yep- and if 100k Dixiecrats switch registration, we could lose the EV-ID by 50k and still win.

[dspNY]

Florida updates are in the early morning, US East Coast time. They usually make 3 or 4

Thanks. Currently R are about 18,000 votes ahead, if that holds up to the Election Day then I can't see Trump losing it. D won it by 177,000 in 2012 apparently so a big difference.

Dems won the early in-person vote by that much but lost the VBM by about 80K so Obama had a 90K or so lead in Party ID going into E-Day. He won FL by 64K

Yep- and if 100k Dixiecrats switch registration, we could lose the EV-ID by 50k and still win.

That would be a tall order. I think we have to be even at the very worst. I'd prefer to be 75K ahead at the worst to feel confident

[alomas]

http://www.politico.com/story/2012/11/early-voting-results-2012-083176

I read 43-40 for Democrats, that's around 130K.

[Dr. Arch]

Not sure how many times I have to remind people that Rs =! votes for Trump in FL. Cuban R crossovers. We've seen it in Latino Decisions, early voting polls of FL, and so forth.

[dspNY]

Repubs win Washoe again by almost 500 (remember, R's outvoted D's in Washoe in Week 2 of early voting in 2012).

GOP: 3,940
DEM: 3,459

Clark looks very good today so far so the Clark firewall will get bigger

[Xing]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/793987244533096448

31,300 have voted so far in Clark today. The freiwal is getting taller, folks!

[ApatheticAustrian]

this is crazy.

either HRC has magical turnout-skills cause of her rally..or you can really predict the dem turnout for each weekday.

[Speed of Sound]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/793987244533096448

31,300 have voted so far in Clark today. The freiwal is getting taller, folks!

That's what I wanna hear. Make NH+ME-02 disappear from the math.

[dspNY]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/793987244533096448

31,300 have voted so far in Clark today. The freiwal is getting taller, folks!

That's what I wanna hear. Make NH+ME-02 disappear from the math.

That's why you're seeing Trump going back to MI, WI, CO, NM. He's fishing for a different path because his NV casino path looks foreclosed

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

Repubs win Washoe again by almost 500 (remember, R's outvoted D's in Washoe in Week 2 of early voting in 2012).

GOP: 3,940
DEM: 3,459

Clark looks very good today so far so the Clark firewall will get bigger

Why are the republicans winning Washoe?

[ApatheticAustrian]

i would haaaate it if johnson ruins NM....no high-quality poll....

[KingSweden]

Repubs win Washoe again by almost 500 (remember, R's outvoted D's in Washoe in Week 2 of early voting in 2012).

GOP: 3,940
DEM: 3,459

Clark looks very good today so far so the Clark firewall will get bigger

Why are the republicans winning Washoe?

R-friendly swing area

[Speed of Sound]

Repubs win Washoe again by almost 500 (remember, R's outvoted D's in Washoe in Week 2 of early voting in 2012).

GOP: 3,940
DEM: 3,459

Clark looks very good today so far so the Clark firewall will get bigger

Why are the republicans winning Washoe?

Rs usually win Washoe. They won Washoe in 2012 when Obama easily won NV. Frankly, the fact that Rs aren't already ahead there should bother them greatly.

[The Other Castro]

Someone made this helpful visual tool that updates based on new information from electproject.org:

https://public.tableau.com/profile/publish/usevmap/Dashboard1#!/publish-confirm

[dspNY]

I did some math for Duval County's turnout today. Dems actually beat the GOP by 82 votes (combined VBM and early vote)

[Holmes]

Repubs win Washoe again by almost 500 (remember, R's outvoted D's in Washoe in Week 2 of early voting in 2012).

GOP: 3,940
DEM: 3,459

Clark looks very good today so far so the Clark firewall will get bigger

Why are the republicans winning Washoe?

Rs usually win Washoe. They won Washoe in 2012 when Obama easily won NV. Frankly, the fact that Rs aren't already ahead there should bother them greatly.

Obama won Washoe in 2012 by almost 4%. I can see Clinton winning it by a modest 5% this year, with Clark going bigger for Clinton this year than in 2012, when Obama won it by about 15%. Washoe has a Republican registration advantage but it's becoming more Democratic. Ultimately, it's all up to turnout (but even more ultimately, the state is really decided by Clark county).

[Speed of Sound]

Repubs win Washoe again by almost 500 (remember, R's outvoted D's in Washoe in Week 2 of early voting in 2012).

GOP: 3,940
DEM: 3,459

Clark looks very good today so far so the Clark firewall will get bigger

Why are the republicans winning Washoe?

Rs usually win Washoe. They won Washoe in 2012 when Obama easily won NV. Frankly, the fact that Rs aren't already ahead there should bother them greatly.

Obama won Washoe in 2012 by almost 4%. I can see Clinton winning it by a modest 5% this year, with Clark going bigger for Clinton this year than in 2012, when Obama won it by about 15%. Washoe has a Republican registration advantage but it's becoming more Democrat. Ultimately, it's all up to turnout (but even more ultimately, the state is really decided by Clark county).

Sorry, I wasn't clear. I meant in the early vote. Rs won the early vote by 500 votes in 2012. If Dems even break even in Washoe EV, Nevada's way over (which we already know from Clark).

[The Other Castro]

Steve Schale ‏@steveschale  10s10 seconds ago
I see you Orange County!
19,682 in-person early votes (biggest day by 2500)
Dems +3300, plus another 5500 NPA voters #wow

[ApatheticAustrian]

while nv rund with it and fl improves....question marks over CO regarding that new high-qual poll. i hate this election. ^^