absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[BoAtlantis]

http://steveschale.com/

Steve Schale

Few takeaways from him

Total Ballots cast:   4,687,113
Total Vote By Mail:  2,273,978 (46.7%)
Total Early Vote:  2,593,135 (53.3%)

Republicans:  1,948,126 (40.0%)
Democrats:  1,936,240 (39.8%)
NPA:  769,241 (20.2%)

Total Margin:  GOP +0.22%

Hillsborough:

It was a very good day for Democrats in Hillsborough.  Almost 25K ballots were processed today, and Dems won the day by 1,400 votes, carrying both the VBM returns and the in-person vote.  Also, NPA made up 25.5% of all votes today, as Dems maintain their 6 point edge over the GOP (+18,600).

There is a Hispanic surge happening here. 26% of Hispanic voters so far have no voting history, compared to 13% for both whites and blacks.

Metro Orlando

In the two Obama wins, the President carried them by a margin of roughly 100,000 votes -- a nearly 122,000 vote margin improvement for the Democrats.

Seminole: 43R-35D-22NPA – Total: +8,907R (Yesterday: 41R-33D-26NPA)
Orange: 47D-30R-23NPA – Total +46,974D (Yesterday: 46D-28R-28NPA)
Osceola: 48D-28R-24NPA – Total +15,430D (Yesterday: 46D-24R-30NPA)

Duval

More than 20,000 people voted yesterday, mostly through in-person early voting, which the Democrats won, leading to the Dems winning the day by about 100 votes. Not a ton, but succeeding in keeping the margin in check.  The GOP margin now stands at 1.3 (43.2R-41.9D).

Additional notes:

"The electorate continues to get more diverse.  Through the Sunday vote, Hispanics are now 14% of the votes so far, with Black voters (African American and Caribbean) at 11.8. White is down to 69.  Keep in mind, it was 67 in 2012, and it has come down from 71 in just a few days.

One last piece, because I don’t think it has gotten the attention it deserves:  the Republican early leads have been built, not completely, but in part by cannibalizing their own Election Day vote.

In 2016, they have gotten a larger share – and number of their traditional Election Day voters to vote early, which has left an interesting scenario:  Democrats have more “2012 voters” left to vote than do Republicans."

[BoAtlantis]

Tom Bonier

"OH: Cuyahoga and Franklin continue to surge back to '12 levels. Chart shows share of EV/AV relative to '12 final share from 10/20 to 11/2."

[Erich Maria Remarque]

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Agree

[Adam Griffin]

Great registration numbers, but the early voting is almost over and it doesn't look great.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1fz_V3oAUL8XJMEudq5wm5hDT_f554uagt6sIm_sJDro/edit#gid=1996929977
http://www.electproject.org/2014_early_vote
2016 early vote (2014 early vote since I couldn't find 2012)

White 60.8% (58.1%)
Black 27.7% (30.8%)
Hispanic 1.3% (0.5%)
Other 2% (1%)
Unknown 8.1% (9.6%)

I'm still waiting to see what Election Day looks like before rendering any verdicts. 2014 had phenomenal black early voter turnout in GA - to the extent that if it had tracked with election day and early vote in previous years, it would have been something like a 32% black electorate - but those numbers absolutely collapsed in the Election Day vote.

I'm increasingly thinking that early voting numbers are serving as indicators for enthusiasm. We've known for a long time that black voters are nowhere nearly as enthusiastic as they were in 2008 & 2012, but enthusiasm doesn't necessarily matter among reliable voters. I've seen reports that there are a substantial number of likely black voters nationally who have yet to cast ballots - likely being based off of pre-2008 participation. We may just be seeing a return to the mean in terms of voting patterns; that the cannibalization of previous ED vote is reverting back to normal among black voters who a) no longer are voting early because the enthusiasm for Obama is no longer applicable and b) the particulars of this election/the candidates. It really makes no sense for the black share of the electorate to be less than it was in 2010 & 2014, two midterm years where Obama was also not on the ballot.

Also, I'm wondering how they've sourced the 2014 data by race. I had access in '14 to the statewide Democratic voter file, and it showed a substantially larger black electorate in early voting (something like 34% at the end of early voting if I recall correctly).

[Classic Conservative]

Great registration numbers, but the early voting is almost over and it doesn't look great.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1fz_V3oAUL8XJMEudq5wm5hDT_f554uagt6sIm_sJDro/edit#gid=1996929977
http://www.electproject.org/2014_early_vote
2016 early vote (2014 early vote since I couldn't find 2012)

White 60.8% (58.1%)
Black 27.7% (30.8%)
Hispanic 1.3% (0.5%)
Other 2% (1%)
Unknown 8.1% (9.6%)

I'm still waiting to see what Election Day looks like before rendering any verdicts. 2014 had phenomenal black early voter turnout in GA - to the extent that if it had tracked with election day and early vote in previous years, it would have been something like a 32% black electorate - but those numbers absolutely collapsed in the Election Day vote.

I'm increasingly thinking that early voting numbers are serving as indicators for enthusiasm. We've known for a long time that black voters are nowhere nearly as enthusiastic as they were in 2008 & 2012, but enthusiasm doesn't necessarily matter among reliable voters. I've seen reports that there are a substantial number of likely black voters nationally who have yet to cast ballots - likely being based off of pre-2008 participation. We may just be seeing a return to the mean in terms of voting patterns; that the cannibalization of previous ED vote is reverting back to normal among black voters who a) no longer are voting early because the enthusiasm for Obama is no longer applicable and b) the particulars of this election/the candidates. It really makes no sense for the black share of the electorate to be less than it was in 2010 & 2014, two midterm years where Obama was also not on the ballot.

Also, I'm wondering how they've sourced the 2014 data by race. I had access in '14 to the statewide Democratic voter file, and it showed a substantially larger black electorate in early voting (something like 34% at the end of early voting if I recall correctly).

I wonder if the GA Democrats, had the early voting electorate at 34% black because of the 'unknown'. That could be plausible.

[BoAtlantis]

NC early voting



Unaffiliated #'s are staggering.

[bilaps]

Soooo after that guy on twitter had an erection followed by multipleones here, new FL data still shows Republicans ahead. In NC black early vote is now under 22%, 21.9% to be exact and even though Dems are picking up 2012 pace, it's share of EV is constantly down. Today is 0,3% down from yesterday, Reps are 0,1% up from yesterday. So far i see good numbers still in Nevada, but let's see will mr Ralston have not pleasant surprise when "cows come home" and independents break heavily towards Trump. Not saying it will just it could be. People don't get it that IF this race is really 1-3 pts nationaly for Clinton, NOBODY knows how map will look like on tuesday.

[BoAtlantis]

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/11/03/1590528/-Columbus-OH-early-vote-update-on-track-to-top-2012

"Yesterday’s (Nov. 2) in-person early vote total in Columbus of 5,383 was the largest yet this year. This was the day after Pres. Obama fired up thousands at a GOTV rally in Columbus suburb Bexley.

So far in the 18 days of early voting there have been 56,976 in-person early votes compared to 33,378 in 2012, a 70% increase. There are three fewer early voting days in 2016, but the increased rate will likely more than make up for that shortfall. In 2012 there were 69,112 in-person early votes in the end, about 12% of ballots cast.

If the remaining 5 days of early vote in the county match the final 5 days in 2012, the end total would be 80,440, a 16% increase over 2012. The total will probably top that, as the daily totals have been significantly stronger than 2012 in general."

[PresidentTRUMP]

WOWzer, please note almost all polls show clinton up in Virginia but Trump seems to be closing the gap BIG Time. Tim Kaine really helping the ticket lol.

For what its worth, just out:

Virginia Hampton-University/CPP Poll

Trump - 44% (+3%)
Clinton - 41%

A 15 point shift in this poll from a month ago, if Virginia starts heading toward a battle ground state, D's can completely forget NC and start worrying about that state, if Trump carries is he will be President.

$500 bucks, 3-1 odds for you, Trump loses VA. Here and now.

Put up or shut up.

Geez, relax and take a breath. Hillary will almost certainly win Virginia, I was just posting a positive poll from the state for Trump supporters, again relax.

[BoAtlantis]

"High turnout hurts Trump. Newly registered and "missing" voters back Clinton by a wide margin in Upshot/Siena polls. "

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/04/upshot/donald-trump-cant-count-on-those-missing-white-voters.html?_r=0

[alomas]

If the remaining 5 days of early vote in the county match the final 5 days in 2012, the end total would be 80,440, a 16% increase over 2012. The total will probably top that, as the daily totals have been significantly stronger than 2012 in general."

Florida's EV totals have already topped 2012 totals so this Democratic county is not doing so well then.

[Brittain33]

If the remaining 5 days of early vote in the county match the final 5 days in 2012, the end total would be 80,440, a 16% increase over 2012. The total will probably top that, as the daily totals have been significantly stronger than 2012 in general."

Florida's EV totals have already topped 2012 totals so this Democratic county is not doing so well then.

The quoted text refers to Ohio—comparing to Florida results is apples and oranges.

[Dr. Arch]

I would note that unaffiliated voters in NC are heavily urban, young, and mostly women. The fact that they have spiked to the point of equaling the R share should be spoopy to Trump.

[Adam Griffin]

Great registration numbers, but the early voting is almost over and it doesn't look great.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1fz_V3oAUL8XJMEudq5wm5hDT_f554uagt6sIm_sJDro/edit#gid=1996929977
http://www.electproject.org/2014_early_vote
2016 early vote (2014 early vote since I couldn't find 2012)

White 60.8% (58.1%)
Black 27.7% (30.8%)
Hispanic 1.3% (0.5%)
Other 2% (1%)
Unknown 8.1% (9.6%)

I'm still waiting to see what Election Day looks like before rendering any verdicts. 2014 had phenomenal black early voter turnout in GA - to the extent that if it had tracked with election day and early vote in previous years, it would have been something like a 32% black electorate - but those numbers absolutely collapsed in the Election Day vote.

I'm increasingly thinking that early voting numbers are serving as indicators for enthusiasm. We've known for a long time that black voters are nowhere nearly as enthusiastic as they were in 2008 & 2012, but enthusiasm doesn't necessarily matter among reliable voters. I've seen reports that there are a substantial number of likely black voters nationally who have yet to cast ballots - likely being based off of pre-2008 participation. We may just be seeing a return to the mean in terms of voting patterns; that the cannibalization of previous ED vote is reverting back to normal among black voters who a) no longer are voting early because the enthusiasm for Obama is no longer applicable and b) the particulars of this election/the candidates. It really makes no sense for the black share of the electorate to be less than it was in 2010 & 2014, two midterm years where Obama was also not on the ballot.

Also, I'm wondering how they've sourced the 2014 data by race. I had access in '14 to the statewide Democratic voter file, and it showed a substantially larger black electorate in early voting (something like 34% at the end of early voting if I recall correctly).

I wonder if the GA Democrats, had the early voting electorate at 34% black because of the 'unknown'. That could be plausible.

Nope, because the same method of breakdown is used in the voter file (SoS classifications). There is an alternate way of looking at it (ethnicity), but that's not what I used at the time.

[HillOfANight]

Michael McDonald has mentioned his voter file is stale, maybe as of September so that could contribute to it, and I think third party vendors have better data on the unknowns (based on modeling).

http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/01/politics/early-voting-update-black-vote-decreasing/
CNN has the Black vote at 31% as of 10/31, I think about 3% higher than Michael's reporting, but that's still trailing previous years.

He had been reporting 28.x% Black, yet it dipped to 27.7% today.

At least in Florida and North Carolina, the Black % is creeping up, but no sign of that in Georgia.

[dspNY]

We finally have an Iowa update from yesterday:

Ballots Requested:

DEM: 258,063
GOP: 208,108
IND: 140,675
Other: 2,050

Ballots cast:

DEM: 217,054
GOP: 174,452
IND: 110,975
Other: 1,573

Dems lead in ballot requests by 50K and votes cast by 42.5K. As of this time, Clinton's early vote lead is only about 2/3 of Barack Obama's lead in 2012 in Iowa

[danny]

Meanwhile in Safe D Oregon EV numbers appear to still indicate a massive Democratic/Republican enthusiasm gap that seems favor the Democrats:

Metro PDX----

Dems continue to perform significantly well with EVs in the Democratic strongholds of Multonmah and Washington Counties. Clackamas (The only potential swing Portland County)  is currently rolling at (49-36-15 D-R-I) vs RV numbers of (39-33-38) D-R-I. Also, Dems still holding a narrow EV lead in Yamhill County (~20%+ Latino) despite a 4k Rep RV lead... (Also on my flip list)



Mid-Valley---

Marion- Dems curently holding a 2.7k lead in a county where RV numbers are only  +0.6k D in one of the largest Latino Counties in the state. Marion continiues to be on my '08 Obama/'12 Romney/ Clinton '16 flip list.

Polk---- Dems hold a 600 vote EV lead in a county with a 1.2k Rep RV lead. Long been on my 2016 flip list (Again Mid-Valley county with a lot of Latinos and some college kids out in Monmouth).

Linn- Should be a Republican stronghold, but Dems outperforming Rep EV vs RV numbers, with a large number of Indies, including many Latinos that appear to be voting at higher numbers than normal.

Benton- College county where most Indies vote Dem, D turnout is +10 over RV, Rep turnout is stagnant vs RV.

Lane- Mix of college, rural, and mill towns. (D) are +3.9% of Ev vs RV, (R) is +0.6% EV/RV.

Coastal Oregon:

Dems still holding on extremely well, even in places like Tillamook and Columbia Counties where the mythical Reagan Democrats might miraculously resurrect themselves from the graves....

Southern Oregon

Douglas County--- Reps outperforming EV vs RV numbers in classic Timber Country, as I long suspected. FWIW (This county was a 47-53% Bush Sr County in '88) and swung hard Republican as a result of the Oregon Timber Wars of the late '80s/ early '90s.

Coos County--- Dems still hold an EV lead of 700 votes, despite a Rep 800 vote RV lead, in what used to be one of the most Democratic Counties in the state, going back to the New Deal and the days of the Union.... I would not be surprised to see Coos come back home after several decades in the wilderness, although I still have it as a Lean Trump county.

Jackson County--- Reps lead RV by 2.7k here and today managed for the first time in EV to eke out a narrow (600) vote lead. All being said, this is a county where Indies tend to Lean D in GEs, and is on my flip list as an Obama '08/Romney '12/Clinton '16 County.

Josephine County--- enough said. See notes on Douglas County above, but throw in a weird Cali Middle-Class Tax revolt movement from the late '70s that doesn't believe that the county should pay for cops, and yeah.... positive EV/RV numbers for Trump here.

Central/Eastern Oregon:

Haven't spent too much time looking on the data out here but....

Deschutes County--- Reps lead +2.5% on RVs, but Dems actually lead in EV, in one of the wealthiest counties in Oregon home to a lot of educated Cali retirees... Also on my list of Obama '08/Romney '12/ Clinton '16 flip counties.

Wasco County--- Blue Collar County on the Columbia River over the Cascade Mountain Range, that used to sometimes vote Dem/Rep for Pres.... Although it didn't vote for Obama in '08 RV numbers are +3.5% D and EV number are +6.0 D.  Likely coming back home as a result of the Trump train and a growing Latino population in the Gorge, and most Oregonians aren't haters...

Umatilla & Malheur Counties---- These counties are a trip, since on the one hand you have traditionally heavily Republican parts of the state, but on the other hand you also have a large and rapidly growing Latino population, as well as an extremely sizeable Mormon population...

What's interesting here isn't as much the (D) and (R) numbers, but actually not only the huge number of independent voters that appear to be voting at much higher levels of Indies than most parts of the state....

Still curious about this, but suspect that many Indie voters in these counties are Latinos, and am extremely interested in looking at county level results after the final votes are in to see if there is a significant Republican defection in some of these counties that are >10% Mormon as well.

Great summary, but I just need to point out that McCain won Deschutes County in 08, even if barely.

[JerryArkansas]

Michael McDonald has mentioned his voter file is stale, maybe as of September so that could contribute to it, and I think third party vendors have better data on the unknowns (based on modeling).

http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/01/politics/early-voting-update-black-vote-decreasing/
CNN has the Black vote at 31% as of 10/31, I think about 3% higher than Michael's reporting, but that's still trailing previous years.

He had been reporting 28.x% Black, yet it dipped to 27.7% today.

At least in Florida and North Carolina, the Black % is creeping up, but no sign of that in Georgia.

Just remember, the percentages are going to be lower, not the raw numbers. 

[The Other Castro]

Taniel ‏@Taniel
Af-Am turnout picking up a bit in NC. Higher share of daily vote, & now -11% (twas -17% Friday). Via @BowTiePolitics

http://www.oldnorthstatepolitics.com/2016/11/north-carolina-absentee-ballots-near-22.html?m=1

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Nick Riccardi Verified account
‏@NickRiccardi

New CO early balloting numbers: Ds 508, 938; Rs 494,757; UAFs 383,275 #copolitics
36-35-27%

[ApatheticAustrian]

republicans running out of time in CO.

[psychprofessor]

@LatinoDecisions prediction: Record Latino turnout with Clinton 79% to 18% for Trump. Would be historic.

[Dr. Arch]

Nick Riccardi Verified account
‏@NickRiccardi

New CO early balloting numbers: Ds 508, 938; Rs 494,757; UAFs 383,275 #copolitics
36-35-27%

D+14,181 net, nice

[bilaps]

Nick Riccardi Verified account
‏@NickRiccardi

New CO early balloting numbers: Ds 508, 938; Rs 494,757; UAFs 383,275 #copolitics
36-35-27%

Almost 10k R plus margin in Colorado since last update.

[ApatheticAustrian]

i feel quite good about CO now...the.electorate there is just demographically anti-trump...meaning: if he wins there it doesn't matter cause he wins everywhere.