absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[Speed of Sound]

Update from Ralston:

http://www.ktnv.com/news/ralston/the-nevada-early-voting-blog

Here's the lead:

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[ApatheticAustrian]

less about 18-34, more about 35-44...why shouldn't they vote accordingly?

[psychprofessor]

Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports  4m4 minutes ago
Blog updated.
More than half vote in.
Trump/Heck math problem.
Next 2 days key.
GOP House seats, #nvleg may be gone.

[Devout Centrist]

Update from Ralston:

http://www.ktnv.com/news/ralston/the-nevada-early-voting-blog

Here's the lead:

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1980 redux inbound.

[ApatheticAustrian]

republican NC voter supression once again visible:


North Carolina. In 2012, Duke students could vote early on the main campus. This year, the polls were moved to a little-known spot.


https://twitter.com/KatzOnEarth/status/793975049405534208


they can't really get away with this, can they?

[ApatheticAustrian]

shame there are not many latinos in NC

[eric82oslo]

Nick Riccardi ‏@NickRiccardi  8m8 minutes ago Denver, CO
One thing I've been watching carefully in CO early vote: Age. Young CO voters cast ballots late. A lot still to come #copolitics



Nick Riccardi ‏@NickRiccardi  9m9 minutes ago Denver, CO
This is from the invaluable @MagellanStrat breakdown of Colorado early votes

Who knows, if they will vote though. My cousin goes UC Boulder for graduate school and she was a Bernie fan but her and her boyfriend aren't voting this year, because Bernie isn't on the ballot.

Bad hombre and bad mujer.

[The Other Castro]

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  10m10 minutes ago
At least 34 Million people have voted in the 2016 election at 11/3 midday

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  5m5 minutes ago
TX #earlyvote update 11/2: 3,655,123 voted, +36.4% of 2012. Picked up pace a little y'day relative to 2012. Was +32.2% 2 days ago

Jeremy Bird ‏@jeremybird  3m3 minutes ago
FL: Yesterday was largest turnout of black voters so far (55k);
585K AA voters have cast votes so far, up 28% compared to same point in '12

[The Other Castro]

Ralston's numbers for why Trump cannot win Nevada:

[Virginiá]

they can't really get away with this, can they?

It's simple really; they already have.

But, if Cooper wins, Democrats will then control the local/state election boards from at least 2017 - 2021, and thus the early voting hours/locations for 2018 and 2020. That is how we not only fix the current issues, but expand early voting in the future.

[Speed of Sound]

Voting in Clark looks strong again today. Ralston has predicted every day of the week perfectly so far. Guru's at it again:

@RalstonReports  8m8 minutes ago

6,500 voted in Clark today by 11 AM. About same pace as Wednesday. Stay tuned.

[Yank2133]

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If they get to 13% then you pretty much put FL in her column.

[BoAtlantis]

Tom Bonier on FL

"FL: GOP early voters are better educated than non-EV GOP. 31.6% of GOP EVs graduated from college, as compared to 24.6% of non voting GOPs. This is consistent with the high rate of GOP crossover we see in our latest survey in FL, as better educated GOP are stronger for Clinton."

"Younger GOP voters are not coming out (yet). 46% of GOP EV/AV are over the age of 65 (snowbirds?), compared to 26% of non-voting GOPers."

"Finally, the GOP AV/EV share is higher among women. 52.1% of GOP turnout thus far is from women, compared to 49.8% of non voting GOP."

[Ebsy]

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If they get to 13% then you pretty much put FL in her column.

Reports of the demise of the black vote this election were heavily exaggerated.

[Speed of Sound]

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If they get to 13% then you pretty much put FL in her column.

That's what Schale has his models at, so he says. He currently believes that they will hit and slightly exceed that mark.

[Crumpets]

On Upshot's NC vote tracker, they have over half the total vote as in, and Hillary winning already-submitted votes by 10. That means Trump has to win remaining votes by at least 10 to carry the state. Not to mention 4 more days of early voting at current support numbers (roughly 50/50, if we're being conservative). That means Trump would have to win the election day vote pretty overwhelmingly unless things shift his way in the state ight now. So, even if that Trump +7 poll was accurate and that's how people vote for the remainder of the election, he'd still lose the state overall.

Somebody please double-check my math, because it sounds a bit Karl Rovey when I read it back to myself.

[Speed of Sound]

Clinton's projected margin has rebounded a little, back to 6% (or, more appropriately, -1% from the poll it's pegged to).

[ApatheticAustrian]

it's simple.

if cohn's model is even in the same universe than reality, than NC is clinton's and if she wins NC, she also wins high-educated CO/VA/NH.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

On Upshot's NC vote tracker, they have over half the total vote as in, and Hillary winning already-submitted votes by 10. That means Trump has to win remaining votes by at least 10 to carry the state. Not to mention 4 more days of early voting at current support numbers (roughly 50/50, if we're being conservative). That means Trump would have to win the election day vote pretty overwhelmingly unless things shift his way in the state right now. So, even if that Trump +7 poll was accurate and that's how people vote for the remainder of the election, he'd still lose the state overall.

Somebody please double-check my math, because it sounds a bit Karl Rovey when I read it back to myself.

It is based on a single Sienna/Upshot poll with Clinton +7. If the poll was right and the race has not changed since    OCT. 20-23, Trump is done.

[Ebsy]

On Upshot's NC vote tracker, they have over half the total vote as in, and Hillary winning already-submitted votes by 10. That means Trump has to win remaining votes by at least 10 to carry the state. Not to mention 4 more days of early voting at current support numbers (roughly 50/50, if we're being conservative). That means Trump would have to win the election day vote pretty overwhelmingly unless things shift his way in the state right now. So, even if that Trump +7 poll was accurate and that's how people vote for the remainder of the election, he'd still lose the state overall.

Somebody please double-check my math, because it sounds a bit Karl Rovey when I read it back to myself.

It is based on a single Sienna/Upshot poll with Clinton +7. If the poll was right and the race has not changed since    OCT. 20-23, Trump is done.

I believe that Sienna is recontacting the poll's respondents to measure whether they have voted early or not and who they voted for, and is then making a projection for the rest of the state.

[Ljube]

it's simple.

if cohn's model is even in the same universe than reality, than NC is clinton's and if she wins NC, she also wins high-educated CO/VA/NH.

That model no longer applies.

Pubs are coming home, including the educated Pubs. They are declaring themselves "undecided" in most recent polls, but expect that "undecided" is a codeword for shy Trump.

[Classic Conservative]

Malik Obama has voted:
https://mobile.twitter.com/ObamaMalik/status/794192790125248512

[Ebsy]

it's simple.

if cohn's model is even in the same universe than reality, than NC is clinton's and if she wins NC, she also wins high-educated CO/VA/NH.

That model no longer applies.

Pubs are coming home, including the educated Pubs. They are declaring themselves "undecided" in most recent polls, but expect that "undecided" is a codeword for shy Trump.

Shy Trump voters are not a thing.

[Speed of Sound]

it's simple.

if cohn's model is even in the same universe than reality, than NC is clinton's and if she wins NC, she also wins high-educated CO/VA/NH.

That model no longer applies.

Pubs are coming home, including the educated Pubs. They are declaring themselves "undecided" in most recent polls, but expect that "undecided" is a codeword for shy Trump.

Shy Trump voters are not a thing.

[ApatheticAustrian]

i have to say, if i were a college-educated white woman, voting for trump after all of this would....be ....fascinating.