absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[Dr. Arch]

As of right now, over 37 million people have already voted, representing over 80% of the 2012 EV. Note that many states have yet to update since October, and we have a huge voting dump coming in the next 2 days from big last day votes.

Some notes:

FL: Now tied, Ds will likely be winning the EV after today
NC: Ds have widened the margin

[ApatheticAustrian]

PPP are serious partisans - CNN are neutral anarchists.

[Speed of Sound]

Ohio news: Cuyahoga, Franklin, and Hamilton Counties made up 28% of the early vote in '12.

This year, they've made up 31% of the early vote, with Franklin County making up the biggest difference. A lot more infrequent voters showing up early this year.

Great news to hear that OH is recovering nicely.

Come on, OH, big numbers today and put OH heavily in play....!

[Maxwell]

CNN is wildly incompetent and always searching for a neutral narrative. PPP are partisans, but they're good at what they do and aren't actively tipping the scales.

[JimSharp]

on a conference call with nothing to say so doing back of envelope calcs.

NV. (according to sos as of yesterday's numbers)
Total voted:
Clark (Vegas): 199k Dems 139k Rep 94k ind
NV totas: 262k Dems 222k Rep 131 ind

Obviously, Indie/UNA hold the key
Past 4 elections indies have gone (according to CNN exit):
2012: 43% Dem 50% Rep (BO v MR)
2008: 54% Dem  41% Rep (BO v JM)
2004: 54% Dem  42% Rep (JK v GWB)

Looks to me like, as it stands, Rep have to pick up a lot of votes or Ind/UNA have to break almost 60/40 to Trump. 94k Total ind/UNA have voted in Clark or about 72%. So is it plausible in any world that indie/UNAs from Vegas go for Trump 56/44 (you have to pull about 5 or 6 %, maybe higher for GJ and others, but those are rough numbers.) That's my calcs if the vote were counted EOD yesterday.
(Please, someone check my math, I'm doing this fast.)

[Dr. Arch]

on a conference call with nothing to say so doing back of envelope calcs.

NV. (according to sos as of yesterday's numbers)
Total voted:
Clark (Vegas): 199k Dems 139k Rep 94k ind
NV totas: 262k Dems 222k Rep 131 ind

Obviously, Indie/UNA hold the key
Past 4 elections indies have gone (according to CNN exit):
2012: 43% Dem 50% Rep (BO v MR)
2008: 54% Dem  41% Rep (BO v JM)
2004: 54% Dem  42% Rep (JK v GWB)

Looks to me like, as it stands, Rep have to pick up a lot of votes or Ind/UNA have to break almost 60/40 to Trump. 94k Total ind/UNA have voted in Clark or about 72%. So is it plausible in any world that indie/UNAs from Vegas go for Trump 56/44 (you have to pull about 5 or 6 %, maybe higher for GJ and others, but those are rough numbers.) That's my calcs if the vote were counted EOD yesterday.
(Please, someone check my math, I'm doing this fast.)

Indies lean D in NV, so he's pretty much toast. The Clark county firewall is huge right now too and Rs are not doing even close to well enough in Washoe.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

CNN is wildly incompetent and always searching for a neutral narrative. PPP are partisans, but they're good at what they do and aren't actively tipping the scales.

Reporting numbers =  always searching for a neutral narrative? OK, all right!

But yeah, they are incompetent.

on a conference call with nothing to say so doing back of envelope calcs.

NV. (according to sos as of yesterday's numbers)
Total voted:
Clark (Vegas): 199k Dems 139k Rep 94k ind
NV totas: 262k Dems 222k Rep 131 ind

Do you know how many UPA voted early in 2012? UPA should be Hillary friendly.

Obviously, Indie/UNA hold the key
Past 4 elections indies have gone (according to CNN exit):
2012: 43% Dem 50% Rep (BO v MR)
2008: 54% Dem  41% Rep (BO v JM)
2004: 54% Dem  42% Rep (JK v GWB)

Looks to me like, as it stands, Rep have to pick up a lot of votes or Ind/UNA have to break almost 60/40 to Trump. 94k Total ind/UNA have voted in Clark or about 72%. So is it plausible in any world that indie/UNAs from Vegas go for Trump 56/44 (you have to pull about 5 or 6 %, maybe higher for GJ and others, but those are rough numbers.) That's my calcs if the vote were counted EOD yesterday.
(Please, someone check my math, I'm doing this fast.)

Intresting.

Though self-reported Indie from CNN is not the same as UNA.
We'll probably also see more uneducated white Dems voting for Trump and educated white Reps voting for Hillary. Question is which share will be bigger

[psychprofessor]

on a conference call with nothing to say so doing back of envelope calcs.

NV. (according to sos as of yesterday's numbers)
Total voted:
Clark (Vegas): 199k Dems 139k Rep 94k ind
NV totas: 262k Dems 222k Rep 131 ind

Obviously, Indie/UNA hold the key
Past 4 elections indies have gone (according to CNN exit):
2012: 43% Dem 50% Rep (BO v MR)
2008: 54% Dem  41% Rep (BO v JM)
2004: 54% Dem  42% Rep (JK v GWB)

Looks to me like, as it stands, Rep have to pick up a lot of votes or Ind/UNA have to break almost 60/40 to Trump. 94k Total ind/UNA have voted in Clark or about 72%. So is it plausible in any world that indie/UNAs from Vegas go for Trump 56/44 (you have to pull about 5 or 6 %, maybe higher for GJ and others, but those are rough numbers.) That's my calcs if the vote were counted EOD yesterday.
(Please, someone check my math, I'm doing this fast.)

Indies lean D in NV, so he's pretty much toast. The Clark county firewall is huge right now too and Rs are not doing even close to well enough in Washoe.

Here's your answer for Nevada:

Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports  2h2 hours ago
Jon Ralston Retweeted (((Harry Enten)))
I have seen data on indies in NV. Less white than ever before. Dems did not ignore them during reg drive.

[JimSharp]

CNN is wildly incompetent and always searching for a neutral narrative. PPP are partisans, but they're good at what they do and aren't actively tipping the scales.

Reporting numbers =  always searching for a neutral narrative? OK, all right!

But yeah, they are incompetent.

on a conference call with nothing to say so doing back of envelope calcs.

NV. (according to sos as of yesterday's numbers)
Total voted:
Clark (Vegas): 199k Dems 139k Rep 94k ind
NV totas: 262k Dems 222k Rep 131 ind

Do you know how many UPA voted early in 2012? UPA should be Hillary friendly.

Obviously, Indie/UNA hold the key
Past 4 elections indies have gone (according to CNN exit):
2012: 43% Dem 50% Rep (BO v MR)
2008: 54% Dem  41% Rep (BO v JM)
2004: 54% Dem  42% Rep (JK v GWB)

Looks to me like, as it stands, Rep have to pick up a lot of votes or Ind/UNA have to break almost 60/40 to Trump. 94k Total ind/UNA have voted in Clark or about 72%. So is it plausible in any world that indie/UNAs from Vegas go for Trump 56/44 (you have to pull about 5 or 6 %, maybe higher for GJ and others, but those are rough numbers.) That's my calcs if the vote were counted EOD yesterday.
(Please, someone check my math, I'm doing this fast.)

Intresting.

Though self-reported Indie from CNN is not the same as UNA.
We'll probably also see more uneducated white Dems voting for Trump and educated white Reps voting for Hillary. Question is which share will be bigger

My "indie" are UPA but not early voting number, just exit totals.  34% of the voters (in CNN exit - caveat there) were UNA. 43% BO, 50% MR, 7% other.

[PresidentTRUMP]

http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/03/politics/early-voting-battleground-states/index.html

Arizona
- Registered Republicans are ahead right now by 5.5%. But at this point four years ago, the GOP had a 10% advantage over Democrats.
- But the good news for Republicans here is that it appears they're gaining ground. One week ago, their lead over Democrats was only about 11,500. Today that lead is more than 71,000.

Colorado
- The Democratic lead one week ago was about 5.6%. It stands at 1.5% today.

Florida
- GOP has a 16K lead (trailed by 73K in 2008)
- Latinos had the largest spike in terms of raw votes, boosting their turnout by 129% from 2008. - White voters increased their turnout by 55%.
- And even though African-American turnout is up by 24% that is clearly a slower growth rate than the other racial groups, and their share of the electorate dropped from 2008.

Iowa
- Right now, about 41,000 more Democrats than Republicans have voted in the Hawkeye State. But at this point four years ago, they had an edge of more than 60,000 votes.

Nevada
- Dems ahead 29K, larger than 1 week ago (4 years ago, they were ahead 38K)

North Carolina
- Right now, registered Democrats are ahead by about 243,000 votes statewide. At this point in 2012, the Democratic lead was more than 307,000 votes.
- Blacks are 28% in 2012 to about 23% today.

Ohio
- Registered Republicans expanded their lead this week in Ohio. They're now ahead of Democrats by almost 66,000 votes, or about 5 points. They were only up by 2.5 points one week ago.

Well if this is accurate from the Clinton News Network things look great for Trump. Can the Colorado numbers actually be right??? Shes up 1.5% right now, really? All those states look good but i would prefer to see comparisons to 2012 than 2008 when Obama won by HUGE HUGE numbers.

Actually if were comparing it to 2008 and not 2012 the numbers are actually even that much better for Trump!! Thanks for the re-cap.

[psychprofessor]

CNN is wildly incompetent and always searching for a neutral narrative. PPP are partisans, but they're good at what they do and aren't actively tipping the scales.

Reporting numbers =  always searching for a neutral narrative? OK, all right!

But yeah, they are incompetent.

on a conference call with nothing to say so doing back of envelope calcs.

NV. (according to sos as of yesterday's numbers)
Total voted:
Clark (Vegas): 199k Dems 139k Rep 94k ind
NV totas: 262k Dems 222k Rep 131 ind

Do you know how many UPA voted early in 2012? UPA should be Hillary friendly.

Obviously, Indie/UNA hold the key
Past 4 elections indies have gone (according to CNN exit):
2012: 43% Dem 50% Rep (BO v MR)
2008: 54% Dem  41% Rep (BO v JM)
2004: 54% Dem  42% Rep (JK v GWB)

Looks to me like, as it stands, Rep have to pick up a lot of votes or Ind/UNA have to break almost 60/40 to Trump. 94k Total ind/UNA have voted in Clark or about 72%. So is it plausible in any world that indie/UNAs from Vegas go for Trump 56/44 (you have to pull about 5 or 6 %, maybe higher for GJ and others, but those are rough numbers.) That's my calcs if the vote were counted EOD yesterday.
(Please, someone check my math, I'm doing this fast.)

Intresting.

Though self-reported Indie from CNN is not the same as UNA.
We'll probably also see more uneducated white Dems voting for Trump and educated white Reps voting for Hillary. Question is which share will be bigger

My "indie" are UPA but not early voting number, just exit totals.  34% of the voters (in CNN exit - caveat there) were UNA. 43% BO, 50% MR, 7% other.

States Hillary never lost in 2008 and 2016: Nevada, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Mook was her field guy in 2008 for Nevada and Ohio. Mook orchestrated her organization this year in the caucus. He knows Nevada...he knows Ohio...trust in the Mook machine

[PresidentTRUMP]

CNN is wildly incompetent and always searching for a neutral narrative. PPP are partisans, but they're good at what they do and aren't actively tipping the scales.

Reporting numbers =  always searching for a neutral narrative? OK, all right!

But yeah, they are incompetent.

on a conference call with nothing to say so doing back of envelope calcs.

NV. (according to sos as of yesterday's numbers)
Total voted:
Clark (Vegas): 199k Dems 139k Rep 94k ind
NV totas: 262k Dems 222k Rep 131 ind

Do you know how many UPA voted early in 2012? UPA should be Hillary friendly.

Obviously, Indie/UNA hold the key
Past 4 elections indies have gone (according to CNN exit):
2012: 43% Dem 50% Rep (BO v MR)
2008: 54% Dem  41% Rep (BO v JM)
2004: 54% Dem  42% Rep (JK v GWB)

Looks to me like, as it stands, Rep have to pick up a lot of votes or Ind/UNA have to break almost 60/40 to Trump. 94k Total ind/UNA have voted in Clark or about 72%. So is it plausible in any world that indie/UNAs from Vegas go for Trump 56/44 (you have to pull about 5 or 6 %, maybe higher for GJ and others, but those are rough numbers.) That's my calcs if the vote were counted EOD yesterday.
(Please, someone check my math, I'm doing this fast.)

Intresting.

Though self-reported Indie from CNN is not the same as UNA.
We'll probably also see more uneducated white Dems voting for Trump and educated white Reps voting for Hillary. Question is which share will be bigger

With everything that has happened over the last week with the FBI i think Hillary will take a blow in that category, many educated R's who were leaning Hillary will probably now hold their nose and go Trump due to Hillary being under FBI investigation come election day still.

[ApatheticAustrian]

being up 1,5 at this point is death for republicans.

the needed to be up 7.

[Dr. Arch]

http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/03/politics/early-voting-battleground-states/index.html

Arizona
- Registered Republicans are ahead right now by 5.5%. But at this point four years ago, the GOP had a 10% advantage over Democrats.
- But the good news for Republicans here is that it appears they're gaining ground. One week ago, their lead over Democrats was only about 11,500. Today that lead is more than 71,000.

Colorado
- The Democratic lead one week ago was about 5.6%. It stands at 1.5% today.

Florida
- GOP has a 16K lead (trailed by 73K in 2008)
- Latinos had the largest spike in terms of raw votes, boosting their turnout by 129% from 2008. - White voters increased their turnout by 55%.
- And even though African-American turnout is up by 24% that is clearly a slower growth rate than the other racial groups, and their share of the electorate dropped from 2008.

Iowa
- Right now, about 41,000 more Democrats than Republicans have voted in the Hawkeye State. But at this point four years ago, they had an edge of more than 60,000 votes.

Nevada
- Dems ahead 29K, larger than 1 week ago (4 years ago, they were ahead 38K)

North Carolina
- Right now, registered Democrats are ahead by about 243,000 votes statewide. At this point in 2012, the Democratic lead was more than 307,000 votes.
- Blacks are 28% in 2012 to about 23% today.

Ohio
- Registered Republicans expanded their lead this week in Ohio. They're now ahead of Democrats by almost 66,000 votes, or about 5 points. They were only up by 2.5 points one week ago.

Well if this is accurate from the Clinton News Network things look great for Trump. Can the Colorado numbers actually be right??? Shes up 1.5% right now, really? All those states look good but i would prefer to see comparisons to 2012 than 2008 when Obama won by HUGE HUGE numbers.

Actually if were comparing it to 2008 and not 2012 the numbers are actually even that much better for Trump!! Thanks for the re-cap.

Sorry to burst your bubble, but Obama actually lost the EV by 2% in 2012 in CO. NV looks exceptionally well for HRC, and FL and NC have improved immensely over the last couple of days. Thing are looking quite grim for Trump.

[PresidentTRUMP]

http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/03/politics/early-voting-battleground-states/index.html

Arizona
- Registered Republicans are ahead right now by 5.5%. But at this point four years ago, the GOP had a 10% advantage over Democrats.
- But the good news for Republicans here is that it appears they're gaining ground. One week ago, their lead over Democrats was only about 11,500. Today that lead is more than 71,000.

Colorado
- The Democratic lead one week ago was about 5.6%. It stands at 1.5% today.

Florida
- GOP has a 16K lead (trailed by 73K in 2008)
- Latinos had the largest spike in terms of raw votes, boosting their turnout by 129% from 2008. - White voters increased their turnout by 55%.
- And even though African-American turnout is up by 24% that is clearly a slower growth rate than the other racial groups, and their share of the electorate dropped from 2008.

Iowa
- Right now, about 41,000 more Democrats than Republicans have voted in the Hawkeye State. But at this point four years ago, they had an edge of more than 60,000 votes.

Nevada
- Dems ahead 29K, larger than 1 week ago (4 years ago, they were ahead 38K)

North Carolina
- Right now, registered Democrats are ahead by about 243,000 votes statewide. At this point in 2012, the Democratic lead was more than 307,000 votes.
- Blacks are 28% in 2012 to about 23% today.

Ohio
- Registered Republicans expanded their lead this week in Ohio. They're now ahead of Democrats by almost 66,000 votes, or about 5 points. They were only up by 2.5 points one week ago.

Well if this is accurate from the Clinton News Network things look great for Trump. Can the Colorado numbers actually be right??? Shes up 1.5% right now, really? All those states look good but i would prefer to see comparisons to 2012 than 2008 when Obama won by HUGE HUGE numbers.

Actually if were comparing it to 2008 and not 2012 the numbers are actually even that much better for Trump!! Thanks for the re-cap.

Sorry to burst your bubble, but Obama actually lost the EV by 2% in 2012 in CO. NV looks exceptionally well for HRC, and FL and NC have improved immensely over the last couple of days. Thing are looking quite grim for Trump.

Well we must be looking at two completely different things than. I Bolded all of the points that have me very very optimistic after reading them.

[ApatheticAustrian]

i agree that the reg data is confusing.

but while i see IA/OH/AZ safe in camp trump...

i think FL/NC are a toss-up at best

and CO/NV are gone for trump.

too much college-education or EV/minority-power.

[Speed of Sound]

i agree that the reg data is confusing.

but while i see IA/OH/AZ safe in camp trump...

Yep

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I think both are tossup/tiniest lean D on EV momentum

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Yep.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

So with NV gone for Trump, that means he has to win either PA, MI, WI, VA, or CO. No wonder he is spending his time in Wisconsin now.

[PresidentTRUMP]

i agree that the reg data is confusing.

but while i see IA/OH/AZ safe in camp trump...

i think FL/NC are a toss-up at best

and CO/NV are gone for trump.

too much college-education or EV/minority-power.

IA & OH I wouldnt put safe but lean R.

FL & NC are COMPLETE toss ups.

as for Nevada being over for trump, the three latest polls have trump +6, +2 and even, NV is FAR from a lost cause: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nv/nevada_trump_vs_clinton-5891.html

Colorado is FAR from a lost cause as well last four polls have Clinton +3, +1, +3 and the latest one tied: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/co/colorado_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson-5973.html

Trumps paths to 270 are opening up IF he carries FL and NC. I thought he would have 1 maybe 2 paths 2-3 weeks ago, now i see several if he takes those two states.

[swf541]

i agree that the reg data is confusing.

but while i see IA/OH/AZ safe in camp trump...

i think FL/NC are a toss-up at best

and CO/NV are gone for trump.

too much college-education or EV/minority-power.

Wouldnt call it safe trump but IA is lean trump ohio will be very close reverse of florida with a small lean r, Arizona i think will go Trump.

[HillOfANight]

https://twitter.com/adamsmithtimes/status/794599190009614340
Clinton's campaign manager think they're ahead by 170K in Florida. Obama's team thought they were behind in 2012.

[PresidentTRUMP]

So with NV gone for Trump, that means he has to win either PA, MI, WI, VA, or CO. No wonder he is spending his time in Wisconsin now.

LOL at people saying NV is gone, guess we will see in three days.

[PresidentTRUMP]

i agree that the reg data is confusing.

but while i see IA/OH/AZ safe in camp trump...

i think FL/NC are a toss-up at best

and CO/NV are gone for trump.

too much college-education or EV/minority-power.

Wouldnt call it safe trump but IA is lean trump ohio will be very close reverse of florida with a small lean r, Arizona i think will go Trump.

Disagree respectively, i think it is a complete toss up state and as usual COULD decide the election.

IF and a BIG IF, Trump carries both FL and NC and i strongly believe he will win.

[ApatheticAustrian]

if the polls are worth anything, the urban cities of WI are delivering ......

thanks EV,.....MI/PA are much more questionable.

[PresidentTRUMP]

if the polls are worth anything, the urban cities of WI are delivering ......

thanks EV,.....MI/PA are much more questionable.

Agreed, i don't see trump winning WI at all. He has a much much better chance of grabbing one of MI and PA.

The moment Ryan cancelled his appearance with Trump in WI he officially lost the state IMO.

If WI didn't flip with Ryan on the ticket as VP it isn't flipping this year either, I feel very confident that state will be blue and clinton will win it by ATLEAST 4 points, probably closer to 5 or 6.