absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[Antonio the Sixth]

"FL Dems surpass GOP in early/absentee ballots cast by 1,800. Before dawn, GOP led by 2,500"

Sweeeeeeeeeeeeeeet.

At last!

How many more votes can we expect to add to that margin by Saturday? And how would that compare to 2012?

[ApatheticAustrian]

At last!

How many more votes can we expect to add to that margin by Saturday? And how would that compare to 2012?

bad, since in 2012 dems overtook republicans after the first real weekend but with MUUUCH more registered dems and many fewer sent absentee ballots.

[GeorgiaModerate]

if the polls are worth anything, the urban cities of WI are delivering ......

Aren't all cities urban...?

[Antonio the Sixth]

At last!

How many more votes can we expect to add to that margin by Saturday? And how would that compare to 2012?

bad, since in 2012 dems overtook republicans after the first real weekend but with MUUUCH more registered dems and many fewer sent absentee ballots.

I know all that. I was asking for actual numbers.

[ApatheticAustrian]

Aren't all cities urban...?

you are correct.

guess the us-tautologies like "liberal democrat" or "conservative republican" have gone to my brain.

meant BIG cities anyway.....milwaukee and madison are rising.

[Speed of Sound]

VA is gone (of course):

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[BoAtlantis]

Tom Bonier

"NV: Almost 700k votes in - tough landscape for Trump. Dems are +6% in EV, and 28.8% of Dem EV didn't vote in '12 (25.5% of GOP)."

[Dr. Arch]

VA is gone (of course):

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No surprises there.

[psychprofessor]

Tom Bonier

"NV: Almost 700k votes in - tough landscape for Trump. Dems are +6% in EV, and 28.8% of Dem EV didn't vote in '12 (25.5% of GOP)."

same thing is happening in florida..lower propensity dem voters are voting

[Minnesota Mike]

Huge turnout day in Broward county. Already a 1 day high for VBM returns and on pace for a 1 day high for EIP voters.

http://www.voterfocus.com/voterturnout/GetVoterTurnout.php?county=broward&election=213#

[Speed of Sound]

Huge turnout day in Broward county. Already a 1 day high for VBM returns and on pace for a 1 day high for EIP voters.

http://www.voterfocus.com/voterturnout/GetVoterTurnout.php?county=broward&election=213#

Could be one of the most important days of the campaign. Looking to use today, and to a lesser extent, tomorrow closing the door.

[Xing]

If Trump loses Florida, he's completely cooked, so I'm liking those EV numbers so far.

[gf20202]

VA is gone (of course):

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No surprises there.

I really wonder why the campaign is deploying Tim Kaine there on Monday.  Is the election so in the  bag that they can allow for a narrative stop instead of a GOTV stop?

[2952-0-0]

Huge turnout day in Broward county. Already a 1 day high for VBM returns and on pace for a 1 day high for EIP voters.

http://www.voterfocus.com/voterturnout/GetVoterTurnout.php?county=broward&election=213#

YUUUUGE!!

[KingSweden]

VA is gone (of course):

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No surprises there.

I really wonder why the campaign is deploying Tim Kaine there on Monday.  Is the election so in the  bag that they can allow for a narrative stop instead of a GOTV stop?

Maybe to help take down Comstock

[ApatheticAustrian]

Maybe to help take down Comstock

my first thought!

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Another positive for D

John Harwood:

"Robby Mook notes on an early vote press call that Obama lost white millennials in 2012 -- a demo Clinton is winning right now, he says."

Eh... It does not sound plausible at all. Or? I though that she was underperforming among them nationally. If so (not 100% sure), I doubt she'll do better in NV.

[ApatheticAustrian]

Eh... It does not sound plausible at all. Or? I though that she was underperforming among them nationally. If so (not 100% sure), I doubt she'll do better in NV.

#

nah, she is not underperforming.

she is not driving them out.

regarding the split, trump is kryptonie for millenials.

[mark_twain]

All of the data points to a Clinton win in FL.

[BoAtlantis]

"FL Dems surpass GOP in early/absentee ballots cast by 1,800. Before dawn, GOP led by 2,500"

Steve Schale

Thru Thurs, Dems took lead in FL

Dem: 2,099,906 (+2,670)
GOP: 2,097,236
NPA: 1,087,063

[afleitch]

Another positive for D

John Harwood:

"Robby Mook notes on an early vote press call that Obama lost white millennials in 2012 -- a demo Clinton is winning right now, he says."

Eh... It does not sound plausible at all. Or? I though that she was underperforming among them nationally. If so (not 100% sure), I doubt she'll do better in NV.

White male millennials were 54-41 Romney and females 49-48 according to exit polls, but millennials are only 55% white and will I think drop below 50% by 2020.

[Speed of Sound]

From PPP's new trio of CO, MI, and VA:

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[ApatheticAustrian]

there is EV in MI?

they talk about absentee, right?

[HillOfANight]

https://twitter.com/adamsmithtimes/status/794599190009614340
Clinton's campaign manager think they're ahead by 170K in Florida. Obama's team thought they were behind in 2012.

I did the math, with 5.3M votes in, give 2% to third parties, leaves 5.194M for Trump/Clinton. On Mook's math, they're up 4% in early voting, 2.7M/52% to 2.5M/48%. THe lead should grow with voting in the weekend.

[BoAtlantis]

Steve Schale

Keep getting asked about NPA versus FL electorate as a whole.
Its more diverse:
All voters:  68w - 12.2b - 14.4h
NPA: 64.2w - 6.3b - 19.9h