absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[Dr. Arch]

Florida exit polling for whites in florida in 2012 was 61-37 according to the nyt

That'd be +24 Romney

I WAS REFERRING TO EARLY VOTING, not all white turnout.

Ok so.....

If were expecting 70% or so of all ballots cast by end of early voting, and am not aware of other numbers to use, seems like a decent comparison imo

Actually, the White share of FL this cycle is expected to be around 67%, rather than 70%, I remember reading.

Rather, I think his point is that 70% of all people will vote early, so distinguishing between early voters only and all voters won't actually be a big difference.

Yes, that was my initial point

Oh, gotcha

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Rather, I think his point is that 70% of all people will vote early, so distinguishing between early voters only and all voters won't actually be a big difference.

Polls say it will.

[Ebsy]

Rather, I think his point is that 70% of all people will vote early, so distinguishing between early voters only and all voters won't actually be a big difference.

Polls say it will.

[dspNY]

Assuming Latino percentages stay the same (they are 14.4% of the vote now), they make up 756K. Clinton would net about 160K. Assuming African-Americans go 90/10 instead of 94/5 like 2012, (they are 12.2% of the vote now), Clinton nets 512K. That gives Clinton a 668K margin, which beats Trump's 610K margin with white voters.

Now push that Latino margin to 2-1 Clinton. She nets another 80K votes on top of that. And that still assumes the electorate does not become more diverse over the last 3-4 days

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Rather, I think his point is that 70% of all people will vote early, so distinguishing between early voters only and all voters won't actually be a big difference.

Polls say it will.

Last CNN Clinton +2

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[Speed of Sound]

Rather, I think his point is that 70% of all people will vote early, so distinguishing between early voters only and all voters won't actually be a big difference.

Polls say it will.

Unless he wins ED whites by 60, 30% won't move the needle enough.

[The Other Castro]

38,682,645 votes have now been cast. I think that's about 4M in the last day or something like that.

[Minnesota Mike]

Huge turnout day in Miami Dade.  42,810 EIP voters, by far biggest turnout to date.

http://www.miamidade.gov/elections/library/reports/2016-11-08-general-election-daily-early-voting-report.pdf

[dspNY]

Huge turnout day in Miami Dade.  42,810 EIP voters, by far biggest turnout to date.

http://www.miamidade.gov/elections/library/reports/2016-11-08-general-election-daily-early-voting-report.pdf

Huge spike. Up 7K from yesterday. Trump's goose is starting to get cooked

[Ozymandias]

The 2016 Advance (mail + early in-person) vote is now up to almost 30% of the 2012 Total (Advance + Election Day) vote (source: http://www.electproject.org/early_2016).

State: 2016 Advance Vote / 2012 Total Vote = Percentage
USA   38,410,981   /   128,925,332   =   29.79%
TN   1,675,679   /   2,458,577   =   68.16%
AZ   1,560,159   /   2,298,802   =   67.87%
NV   680,278   /   1,014,918   =   67.03%
FL   5,267,750   /   8,474,134   =   62.16%
CO   1,553,325   /   2,569,516   =   60.45%
OR   1,054,056   /   1,775,995   =   59.35%
WA   1,694,344   /   3,125,516   =   54.21%
GA   2,111,543   /   3,897,839   =   54.17%
MT   253,528   /   483,932   =   52.39%
NC   2,337,899   /   4,493,301   =   52.03%
TX   4,006,732   /   7,991,197   =   50.14%
UT   480,356   /   1,017,401   =   47.21%
AR   501,452   /   1,069,468   =   46.89%
NM   359,980   /   783,758   =   45.93%
IA   565,393   /   1,574,738   =   35.90%
MD   967,410   /   2,697,018   =   35.87%
ND   105,163   /   321,072   =   32.75%
KS   375,858   /   1,158,833   =   32.43%
CA   4,193,725   /   13,015,298   =   32.22%
ME   216,974   /   711,053   =   30.51%
DC   82,826   /   292,992   =   28.27%
WV   183,920   /   670,438   =   27.43%
ID   175,132   /   652,274   =   26.85%
LA   521,325   /   1,994,065   =   26.14%
IN   637,706   /   2,623,541   =   24.31%
IL   1,260,208   /   5,241,179   =   24.04%
WI   685,644   /   3,063,064   =   22.38%
MA   700,000   /   3,161,215   =   22.14%
SD   78,635   /   363,815   =   21.61%
NE   170,623   /   790,662   =   21.58%
HI   91,400   /   434,539   =   21.03%
SC   400,190   /   1,964,118   =   20.38%
OH   1,054,912   /   5,580,715   =   18.90%
MI   854,921   /   4,722,988   =   18.10%
WY   40,332   /   247,026   =   16.33%
VT   44,968   /   297,247   =   15.13%
OK   197,191   /   1,334,872   =   14.77%
MN   415,986   /   2,925,920   =   14.22%
AK   40,372   /   297,625   =   13.56%
VA   431,680   /   3,847,243   =   11.22%
DE   22,387   /   413,890   =   5.41%
NJ   172,013   /   3,638,499   =   4.73%
KY   73,335   /   1,796,832   =   4.08%
RI   16,793   /   444,668   =   3.78%
NH   25,809   /   708,399   =   3.64%
MO   55,503   /   2,757,323   =   2.01%
MS   13,167   /   1,285,584   =   1.02%
AL   2,399   /   2,070,327   =   0.12%
CT   0   /   1,558,132   =   0.00%
NY   0   /   7,071,734   =   0.00%
PA   0   /   5,742,040   =   0.00%

[BoAtlantis]

Huge turnout day in Miami Dade.  42,810 EIP voters, by far biggest turnout to date.

http://www.miamidade.gov/elections/library/reports/2016-11-08-general-election-daily-early-voting-report.pdf

Huge spike. Up 7K from yesterday. Trump's goose is starting to get cooked

Steve Schale with comparison to 2012

https://twitter.com/MDCElections/status/794719228653879296

[Ozymandias]

Huge turnout day in Miami Dade.  42,810 EIP voters, by far biggest turnout to date.

http://www.miamidade.gov/elections/library/reports/2016-11-08-general-election-daily-early-voting-report.pdf

Huge spike. Up 7K from yesterday. Trump's goose is starting to get cooked

Steve Schale with comparison to 2012

https://twitter.com/MDCElections/status/794719228653879296

Wow

[The Other Castro]

Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports  1m1 minute ago
Turnout just went over 49,300. Hundreds still in line at some polling places, including high Hispanic areas. Big.

[Dr. Arch]

Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports  1m1 minute ago
Turnout just went over 49,300. Hundreds still in line at some polling places, including high Hispanic areas. Big.

Nevada, meet bowtie 🎀

[ApatheticAustrian]

#thosepeoplenevervoteRus

[izixs]

Huge turnout day in Miami Dade.  42,810 EIP voters, by far biggest turnout to date.

http://www.miamidade.gov/elections/library/reports/2016-11-08-general-election-daily-early-voting-report.pdf

Huge spike. Up 7K from yesterday. Trump's goose is starting to get cooked

Steve Schale with comparison to 2012

https://twitter.com/MDCElections/status/794719228653879296

So like 75% of 2012's totals. Nice.

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

Huge turnout day in Miami Dade.  42,810 EIP voters, by far biggest turnout to date.

http://www.miamidade.gov/elections/library/reports/2016-11-08-general-election-daily-early-voting-report.pdf

Huge spike. Up 7K from yesterday. Trump's goose is starting to get cooked

Steve Schale with comparison to 2012

https://twitter.com/MDCElections/status/794719228653879296

Wow

I can't see how Florida isn't in the bag for Hillary with data like. 29 more electorals will go along ways to making sure Donald Trump never sets foot into the white house.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

is it an early vote % increase OR is it a general increase in voter turnout? I guess we will find out on election day.

[Dr. Arch]

is it an early vote % increase OR is it a general increase in voter turnout? I guess we will find out on election day.

Both. At this point, more Latinos have voted in FL than the entire 2012 election. Let that sink in.

[sobo]

Huge turnout day in Miami Dade.  42,810 EIP voters, by far biggest turnout to date.

http://www.miamidade.gov/elections/library/reports/2016-11-08-general-election-daily-early-voting-report.pdf

Huge spike. Up 7K from yesterday. Trump's goose is starting to get cooked

Steve Schale with comparison to 2012

https://twitter.com/MDCElections/status/794719228653879296

Wow

I can't see how Florida isn't in the bag for Hillary with data like. 29 more electorals will go along ways to making sure Donald Trump never sets foot into the white house.

I've got to agree. I'm still feeling a little underlying anxiety about this election, but with this kind of turnout, it's hard to see how Clinton loses. The total vote in Miami Dade in 2012 was 870K. If its already at 650K with two more days of early in person voting, 4 more days of mail-in ballots coming back it looks like Miami Dade turnout will be substantially up this year. This in a county that's only 14.4% non-Hispanic white.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

is it an early vote % increase OR is it a general increase in voter turnout? I guess we will find out on election day.

Both. At this point, more Latinos have voted in FL than the entire 2012 election. Let that sink in.

meh, we'll see how that impacts things, also depends how they breakdown, if it's like Latino Decisions he is done, if it's like other polls he is still in fair shape.

[ApatheticAustrian]

people are leaving the line in NV cause they are sick of waiting.....

[BoAtlantis]

Not related to early voting but this is the problem with polls capturing Hispanic voters.

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

Avg among Hispanic voters....
English-only surveys:  +35
Online surveys: +37
Live phone bilingual:  +50

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

This is the same pattern from 2012... guess who got it right?

[Ebsy]

This is the same pattern from 2012... guess who got it right?

Latino Decisions!