absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[Mike88]

Wait, the voting booth is in a supermarket?? Ok....

But, anyway, great news about turnout!! Votando, decidimos nuestro futuro.

[MasterJedi]

Yeah, don't piss off Latinos and Nev-ah-da voters:

https://twitter.com/LatinoDecisions/status/794753441750872064

Beautiful scene!

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Wait, the voting booth is in a supermarket?? Ok....

In 2012, one Los Angeles booth was at a McDonalds:

http://www.politico.com/magazine/gallery/2016/11/americas-weirdest-polling-places-000683?slide=4

[Xing]

Wow, it's like Ralston read my mind.

Funny, I was told that Washoe was Trump territory and NV was a Toss-Up because muh WCWs. Trump is going to get cooked in NV.

[BoAtlantis]

Few more late night stats. This through Thurs.

34.5% of Dem
51.2% of NPA
27.8% of GOP
Dems have ~141k advantage

What does this mean?

He just clarified that this is for low propensity voters.

[dspNY]

Good God almighty

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/794755970463207424

[Yank2133]

Good God almighty

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/794755970463207424

[HST1948]

Thank you to everyone who has been contributing to this thread... its been a fantastic analysis that I have been following religiously!

I am sorry if this has been answered and I missed it, but I was wondering if anyone knew the most recent D/R/NPA numbers for the state of Florida and an idea of what that means? Thank you so much!

[Lief 🗽]

nate silver right now:

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Steve Schale on FL

Few more late night stats. This through Thurs.

34.5% of Dem
51.2% of NPA
27.8% of GOP
Dems have ~141k advantage

On Thurs alone, 82.5% of Hispanic early voters were considered low propensity voters.
That's literally nuts.

Holy moly (!!!!)

It was the reporting about the Obama campaign turning out infrequent voters in 2012 in Florida that made me feel comfortable predicting that he would win there that year. Feeling similar this cycle.

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

How is hispanic turnout in Colorado? If it is anything like Florida and Nevada = Gone.

[dspNY]

How is hispanic turnout in Colorado? If it is anything like Florida and Nevada = Gone.

Neither campaign is going back to Colorado in the final days so it looks like the state is ceded to Clinton

Edit: Trump going to Colorado tomorrow. He's wasting his time there, I think, if Nevada is any indication of what's going on

[publicunofficial]

Goodbye Heck. Goodbye Hardy. Goodbye Tarkanian. Goodbye R Majority in the Legislature.

[Dr. Arch]

Steve Schale on FL

Few more late night stats. This through Thurs.

34.5% of Dem
51.2% of NPA
27.8% of GOP
Dems have ~141k advantage

On Thurs alone, 82.5% of Hispanic early voters were considered low propensity voters.
That's literally nuts.

Holy moly (!!!!)

It was the reporting about the Obama campaign turning out infrequent voters in 2012 in Florida that made me feel comfortable predicting that he would win there that year. Feeling similar this cycle.

I told you guys polls would miss hundreds of thousands of Puerto Ricans. I've been saying it for months. You are now seeing it come to fruition.

[Lyin' Steve]

OK guys, how have the odds changed today?  Seems like NV is moving towards likely Clinton, while we're all super confused about all those North Carolina tweets form whatshisface.  Florida doing pretty well too I take it?  But Colorado seems like she's in big trouble?  That's the message I seem to be getting.

[Devout Centrist]

Florida top line numbers out yet? How much do Dems outpace R's by now?

[Ronnie]

OK guys, how have the odds changed today?  Seems like NV is moving towards likely Clinton, while we're all super confused about all those North Carolina tweets form whatshisface.  Florida doing pretty well too I take it?  But Colorado seems like she's in big trouble?  That's the message I seem to be getting.

There's no indication at all that Clinton is in big trouble in Colorado.  Not sure where you heard that from.

[Lief 🗽]

OK guys, how have the odds changed today?  Seems like NV is moving towards likely Clinton, while we're all super confused about all those North Carolina tweets form whatshisface.  Florida doing pretty well too I take it?  But Colorado seems like she's in big trouble?  That's the message I seem to be getting.

Nah, Republicans need better than a tie in Colorado.  Most of the young people don't mail their sh!t in until literally the last minute.

[Seriously?]

Sorry to burst your red avatar orgy here, but here's the reality on CO right now. Republicans pulled ahead with Early voters. Magellan may be a questionable pollster, but they are usually good about releasing the Early Vote stuff in CO ahead of the SoS.

http://kdvr.com/2016/11/04/republicans-overtake-democrats-in-early-voting/

You are also way, way, way off on Nevada this week. I don't care about alleged L2 data. The raw numbers suggest overwhelmingly that the Republicans have made significant inroads on the early vote vs. 2012, erasing a 8% deficit from 2012 to about 3.5% this year. Keep in mind, they already shaved a point off of the D margin from 2012 in Week 1.

2016: http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4555
2012: http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=2503

[BoAtlantis]

Steve Schale on FL

Few more late night stats. This through Thurs.

34.5% of Dem
51.2% of NPA
27.8% of GOP
Dems have ~141k advantage

On Thurs alone, 82.5% of Hispanic early voters were considered low propensity voters.
That's literally nuts.

Holy moly (!!!!)

It was the reporting about the Obama campaign turning out infrequent voters in 2012 in Florida that made me feel comfortable predicting that he would win there that year. Feeling similar this cycle.

I told you guys polls would miss hundreds of thousands of Puerto Ricans. I've been saying it for months. You are now seeing it come to fruition.

Yup see below.

https://twitter.com/adrian_gray/status/794728475307413505

Non-bilingual polls consistently underestimate Latinos. Polling industry is in crisis if they don't rectify their English-only method.

There is a reason Latino Decision is more accurate.

[Ebsy]

Seriously? is literally covered in dogsweat.

[JerryArkansas]

Sorry to burst your red avatar orgy here, but here's the reality on CO right now. Republicans pulled ahead with Early voters.

http://kdvr.com/2016/11/04/republicans-overtake-democrats-in-early-voting/

You are also way, way, way off on Nevada this week. I don't care about alleged L2 data. The raw numbers suggest overwhelmingly that the Republicans have made significant inroads on the early vote vs. 2012, erasing a 8% deficit from 2012 to about 3.5% this year. Keep in mind, they already shaved a point off of the D margin from 2012 in Week 1.

2016: http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4555
2012: http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=2503

They have to win by at least 7 to have any chance.  Sorry to burst your damn bubble.

And the raw data doesn't favor your side either, unless you look through the lens of derangement, which you seem to be doing.

[Speed of Sound]

OK guys, how have the odds changed today?  Seems like NV is moving towards likely Clinton, while we're all super confused about all those North Carolina tweets form whatshisface.  Florida doing pretty well too I take it?  But Colorado seems like she's in big trouble?  That's the message I seem to be getting.

There's no indication at all that Clinton is in big trouble in Colorado.  Not sure where you heard that from.

In fact, I like the numbers in CO a good bit. They aren't "it's over" numbers like NV is showing, but they're very good. If I had to rank the "high level info states" (I'm missing some) in decreasing odds of Clinton winning, I'd go something like: NV>CO>FL>NC>IA>OH>AZ, with NC/IA as the barrier: everything left of it is increasingly lean Clinton, everything right is increasingly lean Trump.

[MasterJedi]

Sorry to burst your red avatar orgy here, but here's the reality on CO right now. Republicans pulled ahead with Early voters.

http://kdvr.com/2016/11/04/republicans-overtake-democrats-in-early-voting/

You are also way, way, way off on Nevada this week. I don't care about alleged L2 data. The raw numbers suggest overwhelmingly that the Republicans have made significant inroads on the early vote vs. 2012, erasing a 8% deficit from 2012 to about 3.5% this year. Keep in mind, they already shaved a point off of the D margin from 2012 in Week 1.

2016: http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4555
2012: http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=2503

That's some filthy dog sweat kiddo. It's the weekend now, that R lead will be erased and it needs to be R+7 for Trump to have even a shot.

[gf20202]

Sorry to burst your red avatar orgy here, but here's the reality on CO right now. Republicans pulled ahead with Early voters. Magellan may be a questionable pollster, but they are usually good about releasing the Early Vote stuff in CO ahead of the SoS.

Romney won early vote by 2 in CO. He lost the state by five points. In being tied, Trump is doing worse than Romney already.