absentee/early vote thread, part 2
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  absentee/early vote thread, part 2
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Author Topic: absentee/early vote thread, part 2  (Read 110438 times)
Dr. Arch
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« Reply #75 on: November 02, 2016, 01:43:30 PM »

All the reports I'm seeing indicate a decline in the share of black vote among those voting early.

The actual numbers of black voters seem to be up, though clearly not up as much as hispanic (or white) voters.

Entirely possible this is just non-black voters discovering early voting is a thing, rather than any sort of real indication of enthusiasm among black voters.

Exactly. Hispanic voting %s are WAY up, so the share on other ends will also decrease subsequently even if their numbers go up too.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #76 on: November 02, 2016, 01:43:45 PM »

Trump is not going to do as well with white voters as Romney did. Romney won North Carolina whites by a whopping 68 TO 32. There hasn't been a single poll showing Trump winning a similar margin of them.
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swf541
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« Reply #77 on: November 02, 2016, 01:43:49 PM »

lol....come on now already....

Obama a SITTING president lost NC where the AA community came out in droves to vote for him still lost the state by close to 100,000 votes to Mitt Romney LOL. But yes HRC is going to flip a state Obama wasn't able too last cycle, literally comical.

The nc shift has little to do with african americans but is connected to the educated white swing and swing among white females
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #78 on: November 02, 2016, 01:45:04 PM »

Should this be merged into the absentee/early vote thread?
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PresidentTRUMP
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« Reply #79 on: November 02, 2016, 01:46:50 PM »
« Edited: November 02, 2016, 01:48:53 PM by 2016election »

lol....come on now already....

Obama a SITTING president lost NC where the AA community came out in droves to vote for him still lost the state by close to 100,000 votes to Mitt Romney LOL. But yes HRC is going to flip a state Obama wasn't able too last cycle, literally comical.

The nc shift has little to do with african americans but is connected to the educated white swing and swing among white females

Hmmm Trump is doing MUCH MUCH better than Romney with high school, some college or less white voters but polls showing him doing worse among college educated whites. It is assumed by most people there is a hidden Trump vote not showing in the polls because people don't want to admit their voting for him. HMMM now i wonder what voters that might just likely be....seems pretty OBVIOUS to me which group those hidden Trump supporters are from but we will see, heck i know many Trump voters who won't admit in public or to anyone besides family they are supporting him and guess what category they all fall into?
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
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« Reply #80 on: November 02, 2016, 01:47:26 PM »

All the reports I'm seeing indicate a decline in the share of black vote among those voting early.

The actual numbers of black voters seem to be up, though clearly not up as much as hispanic (or white) voters.

Entirely possible this is just non-black voters discovering early voting is a thing, rather than any sort of real indication of enthusiasm among black voters.

I hope this reasoning is right. African American voters have been disproportionately likely to vote early, so if this is just other voters catching up, then there is less to worry about.

I'm still going to feel queasy until all the votes are counted, given all that is at stake.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #81 on: November 02, 2016, 01:48:40 PM »

"hidden trump supporters"

lol k
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Ebsy
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« Reply #82 on: November 02, 2016, 01:49:08 PM »

GG, good luck next election.
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Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.
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« Reply #83 on: November 02, 2016, 01:50:47 PM »


Miami-Dade will deliver FL for Hillary!
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PresidentTRUMP
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« Reply #84 on: November 02, 2016, 01:51:14 PM »
« Edited: November 02, 2016, 01:53:24 PM by 2016election »


laugh all you want but like i said i know many college educated white voters like myself who wont admit in public they support him. On an anonymous board i will but if im asked at work by anyone or in a public setting i say im fed up with the whole system and both parties and will vote for the independent candidate.

The media has categorized Trump supporters as racists, bigots, hate woman ect. college educated white voters know this, we read and watch the news and that's why that particular group will never admit to anyone they are backing Trump because they want change because they know the media has said you are a racist if you support him.
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Yank2133
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« Reply #85 on: November 02, 2016, 01:52:08 PM »


I thought this theory wad debunked already. Granted, it is not like 2016election cares, but still.........
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Yank2133
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« Reply #86 on: November 02, 2016, 01:54:21 PM »


laugh all you want but like i said i know many college educated white voters like myself who wont admit in public they support him. On an anonymous board i will but if im asked at work by anyone or in a public setting i say im fed up with the whole system and both parties and will vote for the independent candidate.

Why the hell would people lie to pollsters? This secret Trump voter argument doesn't make sense, because there is no reason for people to hide their intentions.

I am sorry, this just reeks of desperation.
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PresidentTRUMP
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« Reply #87 on: November 02, 2016, 01:55:13 PM »


Shocks me as well that this actually surprises people, I thought this was obvious. Guess not when your on the atlas board.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #88 on: November 02, 2016, 01:58:34 PM »

Looks like they were a little bit Obama-friendly in '12. Couldn't find '08, though I didn't look hard.

LD 2012 final proj: 75-23
2012 Exit poll final: 71-27

Yeah. Marginwise from Obama +52 to Obama 44%. 8% is not that little. If they have the same error now, it would mean Clinton +32 rather than Clinton +40. A huuuuge difference for Florida.

I don't know though how good they were in Florida in 2012/2008
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StatesPoll
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« Reply #89 on: November 02, 2016, 02:03:31 PM »

Trump is not going to do as well with white voters as Romney did. Romney won North Carolina whites by a whopping 68 TO 32. There hasn't been a single poll showing Trump winning a similar margin of them.

Oct. 28-31 SurveyUSA 659 LV (North Carolina)
http://www.wral.com/asset/news/state/nccapitol/2016/11/01/16183925/261876-WRAL_News_poll_Nov._1_2016_.pdf
Overall: TRUMP 44% | Hillary 37%
Already voted: TRUMP 46% | Hillary 52%
gonna vote later or in Nov,8 : TRUMP 54% | Hillary 38%
White: TRUMP 62% | Hillary 33%.  TRUMP +29%
Black: TRUMP 14% | Hillary 84%.  Hillary +70% (in 2012, Romney 4% | Obama 96%. Obama +92%)

1) yes. among white voters, 6% less margins than Romney.
2) But unfortunately(?) TRUMP is doing much better than Romney of Minorities.
Margins of Black voters: 92%(2012) ---> 70%(2016) freefall Cheesy
3) Black voter turnouts decreased by 20~23%ish means, DEM gonna lose 3~4% voters of Total in NC

And don't fotget. This SurveyUSA NC Poll was conducted with Dem +11% samples.

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Ebsy
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« Reply #90 on: November 02, 2016, 02:03:44 PM »

You cherrypick that ridiculous SUSA poll and can't even support your conclusion. Incredible!
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PresidentTRUMP
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« Reply #91 on: November 02, 2016, 02:05:36 PM »
« Edited: November 02, 2016, 02:07:26 PM by 2016election »

Also, interesting to note when Obama carried NC in 2008 after we were going through the worst recession in a long time and he was the FIRST AA candidate to be running from a major party in the general election:
                        Obama              McCain
Popular vote   2,142,651   2,128,474
Percentage    49.70%             49.38%

He carried the state by a mere 14,177 votes.

But yes HRC will outperform Obama and carry the state, really?
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StatesPoll
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« Reply #92 on: November 02, 2016, 02:09:14 PM »

You cherrypick that ridiculous SUSA poll and can't even support your conclusion. Incredible!

your logic

NYT NC Poll & estimates = Holy golden standard
SurveyUSA NC Poll= Ridiculous Poll

funny Wink

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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #93 on: November 02, 2016, 02:09:29 PM »

Also, interesting to note when Obama carried NC in 2008 after we were going through the worst recession in a long time and he was the FIRST AA candidate to be running from a major party in the general election:
                        Obama              McCain
Popular vote   2,142,651   2,128,474
Percentage    49.70%             49.38%

He carried the state by a mere 14,177 votes.

But yes HRC will outperform Obama and carry the state, really?

Trump is appealing to uneducated voters, which makes the bottom fall off from educated voters, give and take. NC has a huge share of educated voters who would be fine voting for Romney and McCain, but would never vote for Trump. It's really that simple.
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SunSt0rm
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« Reply #94 on: November 02, 2016, 02:10:26 PM »

Quinnipiac early voting poll

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PresidentTRUMP
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« Reply #95 on: November 02, 2016, 02:11:34 PM »

Quinnipiac early voting poll

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LOL if you actually believe those figures. Is Clinton up in EV 58-35 percent in Texas as well?
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StatesPoll
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« Reply #96 on: November 02, 2016, 02:24:06 PM »
« Edited: November 02, 2016, 02:25:37 PM by StatesPoll »

Quinnipiac early voting poll

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Quinnipiac NC Poll (10/27-11/1)
https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/ps/snc11022016_demos_Sbyf37m.pdf/
Total 602 LV samples.  Early voters 44%.
602 LV X 44% = 264.88 LV (Already voted)

265 LV = very massive samples to figure out 2 Million votes(already voted in NC) Wink
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‼realJohnEwards‼
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« Reply #97 on: November 02, 2016, 02:27:23 PM »

Quinnipiac early voting poll

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The margin of error is like 6 percent. So maybe she's only winning by 10 and not 22. Still though!

Quinnipiac NC Poll (10/27-11/1)
https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/ps/snc11022016_demos_Sbyf37m.pdf/
Total 602 LV samples.  Early voters 44%.
602 LV X 44% = 264.88 LV (Already voted)

265 LV = very massive samples to figure out 2 Million votes(already voted in NC) Wink

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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #98 on: November 02, 2016, 02:29:22 PM »

Quinnipiac early voting poll

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LOL if you actually believe those figures. Is Clinton up in EV 58-35 percent in Texas as well?

Has anyone claimed that she's up that much in Texas?  The numbers above are from polling data.  Now you can put as much stock in Q polls as you like, but it's a dishonest attempt to deflect when you bring in another state that is not the subject of the poll.
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bilaps
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« Reply #99 on: November 02, 2016, 02:32:10 PM »


laugh all you want but like i said i know many college educated white voters like myself who wont admit in public they support him. On an anonymous board i will but if im asked at work by anyone or in a public setting i say im fed up with the whole system and both parties and will vote for the independent candidate.

Why the hell would people lie to pollsters? This secret Trump voter argument doesn't make sense, because there is no reason for people to hide their intentions.

I am sorry, this just reeks of desperation.

people lie all the time

upshot/nyt said that 16% of the people who SAID they ALREADY voted, actualy didn't. so i don't know why but obviously they lied and 16% is a huuuge number
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