Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
December 18, 2017, 05:08:29 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Election 2018 predictions for US Senate are now open!.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  2016 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter, TJ in Wisco)
| | |-+  absentee/early vote thread, part 2
« previous next »
Pages: 1 2 3 4 [5] 6 7 8 9 10 ... 78 Print
Author Topic: absentee/early vote thread, part 2  (Read 71231 times)
Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3673
Sweden


View Profile
« Reply #100 on: November 02, 2016, 02:37:05 pm »
Ignore

"hidden trump supporters"

lol k

laugh all you want but like i said i know many college educated white voters like myself who wont admit in public they support him. On an anonymous board i will but if im asked at work by anyone or in a public setting i say im fed up with the whole system and both parties and will vote for the independent candidate.

Why the hell would people lie to pollsters? This secret Trump voter argument doesn't make sense, because there is no reason for people to hide their intentions.

I am sorry, this just reeks of desperation.

people lie all the time

upshot/nyt said that 16% of the people who SAID they ALREADY voted, actualy didn't. so i don't know why but obviously they lied and 16% is a huuuge number

Is it true? Link?

Probably small sample caused it.
Logged

“People have forgotten this truth," the fox said. "But you mustn’t forget it. You become responsible forever for what you’ve tamed. You’re responsible for your rose.”
bilaps
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 293
View Profile
« Reply #101 on: November 02, 2016, 02:40:22 pm »
Ignore

you can find it it nate cohn's tweets, from few days ago. i don't have time for now to look for it.
Logged
Kalimantan
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 656
Indonesia


Political Matrix
E: -3.10, S: -1.74

View Profile
« Reply #102 on: November 02, 2016, 02:44:26 pm »
Ignore

Can the blue avatars stop with the abuse please. Its fine to spin the polls and look for evidence your candidate is winning, but can you do it without the abuse and sarcasm please, not necessary.
Logged
Kalimantan
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 656
Indonesia


Political Matrix
E: -3.10, S: -1.74

View Profile
« Reply #103 on: November 02, 2016, 02:45:48 pm »
Ignore

Question, if you don't mind.  From where are we getting these racial breakdowns on EV numbers?
Logged
OneJ_
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1811
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.68, S: -4.00

View Profile
« Reply #104 on: November 02, 2016, 02:48:49 pm »
Ignore

All the reports I'm seeing indicate a decline in the share of black vote among those voting early.

The actual numbers of black voters seem to be up, though clearly not up as much as hispanic (or white) voters.

Entirely possible this is just non-black voters discovering early voting is a thing, rather than any sort of real indication of enthusiasm among black voters.

I told people not to worry so much! 😉
Logged

Alone and Stranded: A Black Liberal in White, Conservative Mississippi
bilaps
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 293
View Profile
« Reply #105 on: November 02, 2016, 02:50:03 pm »
Ignore

Question, if you don't mind.  From where are we getting these racial breakdowns on EV numbers?

For NC they release all data on early/absentee balots.
Logged
BundouYMB
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 448


View Profile
« Reply #106 on: November 02, 2016, 02:50:39 pm »
Ignore

Question, if you don't mind.  From where are we getting these racial breakdowns on EV numbers?

Some states release them, some don't. For those that do they're on the websites of various Secretary of States. Here's a good link to keep track of EV everywhere: http://www.electproject.org/early_2016

If you scroll to the right they have racial breakdowns on their chart too.

Also, yes, please stop responding to that grade a idiot 2016election. It's no good for me to have him on ignore if y'all are going to quote him... hit ignore and move on please.
« Last Edit: November 02, 2016, 02:54:28 pm by BundouYMB »Logged
BundouYMB
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 448


View Profile
« Reply #107 on: November 02, 2016, 02:53:15 pm »
Ignore

All the reports I'm seeing indicate a decline in the share of black vote among those voting early.

The actual numbers of black voters seem to be up, though clearly not up as much as hispanic (or white) voters.

Entirely possible this is just non-black voters discovering early voting is a thing, rather than any sort of real indication of enthusiasm among black voters.

I told people not to worry so much! 😉

re: this -- I looked at early voting in Louisiana today (just out of curiosity), where blacks have declined significantly as a share of the early vote, and black turnout is actually UP. Black turnout is 116% of 2012 number... it's just that white EV turnout is 160% of 2012 numbers.

That of course doesn't mean black turnout WON'T go down. It COULD. There's just really no evidence of it yet.
Logged
PresidentTRUMP
2016election
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 958


View Profile
« Reply #108 on: November 02, 2016, 02:53:37 pm »
Ignore

Can the blue avatars stop with the abuse please. Its fine to spin the polls and look for evidence your candidate is winning, but can you do it without the abuse and sarcasm please, not necessary.

The fact is nobody knows for sure what the EV totals look like. Yeah we have some raw data thats come in but nobody really knows whats true and whats not true about that data. Its all pure speculation at this point, only 6 days away from the election. Will be here before you know it.
Logged

Make America GREAT Again!

PRESIDENT TRUMP!
Kalimantan
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 656
Indonesia


Political Matrix
E: -3.10, S: -1.74

View Profile
« Reply #109 on: November 02, 2016, 02:54:34 pm »
Ignore

Question, if you don't mind.  From where are we getting these racial breakdowns on EV numbers?

Some states release them, some don't. For those that do they're on the websites of various Secretary of States. Here's a good link to keep track of EV everywhere: http://www.electproject.org/early_2016

If you scroll to the right they have racial breakdowns on their chart too.

Also, yes, please stop responding to that grade a idiot 2016 election. It's no good for me to have him on ignore if y'all are going to quote him... hit ignore and move on please.

Thanks. So the next question is, why on earth do the Secretary of States have this information? When you vote, you just put a cross in a piece of paper, no? - you surely don't have to state the colour of your skin? Racial profiling, yuck....
Logged
bilaps
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 293
View Profile
« Reply #110 on: November 02, 2016, 02:57:34 pm »
Ignore

Question, if you don't mind.  From where are we getting these racial breakdowns on EV numbers?

Some states release them, some don't. For those that do they're on the websites of various Secretary of States. Here's a good link to keep track of EV everywhere: http://www.electproject.org/early_2016

If you scroll to the right they have racial breakdowns on their chart too.

Also, yes, please stop responding to that grade a idiot 2016 election. It's no good for me to have him on ignore if y'all are going to quote him... hit ignore and move on please.

Thanks. So the next question is, why on earth do the Secretary of States have this information? When you vote, you just put a cross in a piece of paper, no? - you surely don't have to state the colour of your skin? Racial profiling, yuck....

lol

dude, they know who you are, they have you in a voter registration file
Logged
Ozymandias
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 471


View Profile
« Reply #111 on: November 02, 2016, 02:59:06 pm »
Ignore

Thanks. So the next question is, why on earth do the Secretary of States have this information? When you vote, you just put a cross in a piece of paper, no? - you surely don't have to state the colour of your skin? Racial profiling, yuck....

If states don't collect racial demographic info, then it becomes harder to determine when minority voters are disenfranchised, which unfortunately continues to occur all too often here in the States.
Logged
nirvanayoda
Jr. Member
**
Posts: 89


View Profile
« Reply #112 on: November 02, 2016, 03:01:58 pm »
Ignore

When one side has to say the polls are skewed (even with this early voting analysis), it usually ends up poorly for that side.  I want to see Hillary lose -- note that I didn't say I wanted to see Trump win -- but I'm not going to paint a picture that everything is lovely when almost every reputable poll says that she has a giant EV lead.

That said, it's possible that those numbers adjust over the course of the next week and on election day.  Let's hope for the best.
Logged
Kalimantan
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 656
Indonesia


Political Matrix
E: -3.10, S: -1.74

View Profile
« Reply #113 on: November 02, 2016, 03:03:38 pm »
Ignore

Question, if you don't mind.  From where are we getting these racial breakdowns on EV numbers?

Some states release them, some don't. For those that do they're on the websites of various Secretary of States. Here's a good link to keep track of EV everywhere: http://www.electproject.org/early_2016

If you scroll to the right they have racial breakdowns on their chart too.

Also, yes, please stop responding to that grade a idiot 2016 election. It's no good for me to have him on ignore if y'all are going to quote him... hit ignore and move on please.

Thanks. So the next question is, why on earth do the Secretary of States have this information? When you vote, you just put a cross in a piece of paper, no? - you surely don't have to state the colour of your skin? Racial profiling, yuck....

lol

dude, they know who you are, they have you in a voter registration file

You have to declare the colour of your skin to register to vote? Stunning, in 2016.
Logged
Kalimantan
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 656
Indonesia


Political Matrix
E: -3.10, S: -1.74

View Profile
« Reply #114 on: November 02, 2016, 03:05:45 pm »
Ignore

Thanks. So the next question is, why on earth do the Secretary of States have this information? When you vote, you just put a cross in a piece of paper, no? - you surely don't have to state the colour of your skin? Racial profiling, yuck....

If states don't collect racial demographic info, then it becomes harder to determine when minority voters are disenfranchised, which unfortunately continues to occur all too often here in the States.

Many would say it makes it easier for states to disenfranchise minority voters.

How else can you perfectly gerrymander a map to your advantage. Or ensure there are fewer polling stations in minority areas.
Logged
BundouYMB
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 448


View Profile
« Reply #115 on: November 02, 2016, 03:09:06 pm »
Ignore

Thanks. So the next question is, why on earth do the Secretary of States have this information? When you vote, you just put a cross in a piece of paper, no? - you surely don't have to state the colour of your skin? Racial profiling, yuck....

If states don't collect racial demographic info, then it becomes harder to determine when minority voters are disenfranchised, which unfortunately continues to occur all too often here in the States.

Many would say it makes it easier for states to disenfranchise minority voters.

How else can you perfectly gerrymander a map to your advantage. Or ensure there are fewer polling stations in minority areas.

Your lack of understand of US law/elections is showing here. I don't really feel like explaining this in detail but a lot of laws that protect nonwhites (incl. the Voting Rights Act) have provisions that would be literally impossible to enforce if the government didn't keep this data.
Logged
Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6385
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.19, S: -6.17

P
View Profile
« Reply #116 on: November 02, 2016, 03:10:21 pm »
Ignore

Question, if you don't mind.  From where are we getting these racial breakdowns on EV numbers?

Some states release them, some don't. For those that do they're on the websites of various Secretary of States. Here's a good link to keep track of EV everywhere: http://www.electproject.org/early_2016

If you scroll to the right they have racial breakdowns on their chart too.

Also, yes, please stop responding to that grade a idiot 2016 election. It's no good for me to have him on ignore if y'all are going to quote him... hit ignore and move on please.

Thanks. So the next question is, why on earth do the Secretary of States have this information? When you vote, you just put a cross in a piece of paper, no? - you surely don't have to state the colour of your skin? Racial profiling, yuck....

lol

dude, they know who you are, they have you in a voter registration file

You have to declare the colour of your skin to register to vote? Stunning, in 2016.

There's nothing nefarious about it, and I say that as someone who vigorously opposes racial profiling. Consider France's recent law to prevent keeping track of racial statistics pertaining to crime. All evidence points to increased bias against minorities since the bill was passed as law enforcement now feels less incentive to stop/arrest/charge/convict people in a racially blind way.

In the US, especially in the South, it is imperative to know the racial statistics of who is voting to ensure congressional delegations don't under-represent minorities (under the Voting Rights Act) and that minority neighborhoods get the same number/quality of polling stations as white neighborhoods. Of course, this is all de jure. De facto, minority voters assuredly get the short end of the stick when it comes to election day.
Logged

A notorious art thief and prolific womanizer
PresidentTRUMP
2016election
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 958


View Profile
« Reply #117 on: November 02, 2016, 03:15:25 pm »
Ignore

WOWzer, please note almost all polls show clinton up in Virginia but Trump seems to be closing the gap BIG Time. Tim Kaine really helping the ticket lol.

For what its worth, just out:

Virginia Hampton-University/CPP Poll

Trump - 44% (+3%)
Clinton - 41%

A 15 point shift in this poll from a month ago, if Virginia starts heading toward a battle ground state, D's can completely forget NC and start worrying about that state, if Trump carries is he will be President.
Logged

Make America GREAT Again!

PRESIDENT TRUMP!
Maxwell
mah519
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 28181
Germany


View Profile
« Reply #118 on: November 02, 2016, 03:16:32 pm »
Ignore

WOWzer, please note almost all polls show clinton up in Virginia but Trump seems to be closing the gap BIG Time. Tim Kaine really helping the ticket lol.

For what its worth, just out:

Virginia Hampton-University/CPP Poll

Trump - 44% (+3%)
Clinton - 41%

A 15 point shift in this poll from a month ago, if Virginia starts heading toward a battle ground state, D's can completely forget NC and start worrying about that state, if Trump carries is he will be President.

This is not the place to drop your idiot polls. There is a thread for it already.
Logged

Gamgubben
Newbie
*
Posts: 4
United Kingdom
View Profile
« Reply #119 on: November 02, 2016, 03:17:21 pm »
Ignore

WOWzer, please note almost all polls show clinton up in Virginia but Trump seems to be closing the gap BIG Time. Tim Kaine really helping the ticket lol.

For what its worth, just out:

Virginia Hampton-University/CPP Poll

Trump - 44% (+3%)
Clinton - 41%

A 15 point shift in this poll from a month ago, if Virginia starts heading toward a battle ground state, D's can completely forget NC and start worrying about that state, if Trump carries is he will be President.

Please, can you keep polling to the polling thread? It getsso cloggedup otherwise.
Logged
PresidentTRUMP
2016election
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 958


View Profile
« Reply #120 on: November 02, 2016, 03:20:10 pm »
Ignore

Sure, will do from now on, just wanted to post it as i figured Virginia was a complete lost casue especially with Tim Kaine being the senator and former governor of the State, very promising it might actually be in play.
Logged

Make America GREAT Again!

PRESIDENT TRUMP!
Kalimantan
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 656
Indonesia


Political Matrix
E: -3.10, S: -1.74

View Profile
« Reply #121 on: November 02, 2016, 03:22:14 pm »
Ignore

Thanks. So the next question is, why on earth do the Secretary of States have this information? When you vote, you just put a cross in a piece of paper, no? - you surely don't have to state the colour of your skin? Racial profiling, yuck....

If states don't collect racial demographic info, then it becomes harder to determine when minority voters are disenfranchised, which unfortunately continues to occur all too often here in the States.

Many would say it makes it easier for states to disenfranchise minority voters.

How else can you perfectly gerrymander a map to your advantage. Or ensure there are fewer polling stations in minority areas.

Your lack of understand of US law/elections is showing here. I don't really feel like explaining this in detail but a lot of laws that protect nonwhites (incl. the Voting Rights Act) have provisions that would be literally impossible to enforce if the government didn't keep this data.

Oh for sure, and also some naivety on my part, and a desire for utopian ideals... I get there were far deeper racial divisions in the US than in most other countries and things needed to be done - but now it feels like this is perpetuating the issue. When I vote over here the government doesn't know if I'm black or white or male or female, so they can't favour me or franchise against me, and thus I'm not part of some sub-group for campaigns to pore over and be 'targeted' or ignored... and for the media to fret over my 'groups' turnout stats... god it must be bloody awful for black and hispanic people to be discussed and dissected like this as one big single block of people... too simplistic?

Anyway, didn't mean to derail this thread, just never realised stats like this were kept and released to the public..
Logged
BernsteinBro
MikeWells12
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3247
United States


View Profile
« Reply #122 on: November 02, 2016, 03:29:05 pm »
Ignore

Sure, will do from now on, just wanted to post it as i figured Virginia was a complete lost casue especially with Tim Kaine being the senator and former governor of the State, very promising it might actually be in play.

It's not. That poll, taken October 26-30 shows Trump up by 3, but there have been six polls taken after that time period averaging out to a 6 point Clinton lead. With this poll added in, it becomes a 5 point lead.

But you can hope I guess. As long as you consider Georgia and Arizona to be in play also.
Logged

Castro
Castro2020
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10435
United States


View Profile
« Reply #123 on: November 02, 2016, 03:35:40 pm »
Ignore

Whoa, total Early Vote now at 31,191,741. 67.5% of the 2012 early vote, 24.2% of the total 2012 vote.
Logged
PresidentTRUMP
2016election
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 958


View Profile
« Reply #124 on: November 02, 2016, 03:44:16 pm »
Ignore

What i love about the Media is all the talk about Arizona and GA being in play and even serious talk about Texas. Yet, if it was the other way around and this VA poll came out they would be polling the state every day, haven't seen many polls either on Minn & Michigan, wonder why? If these were normally red states they would be polling these states every few days. Blast away...
Logged

Make America GREAT Again!

PRESIDENT TRUMP!
Pages: 1 2 3 4 [5] 6 7 8 9 10 ... 78 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines