absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[Dr. Arch]

Another 'good' day for the GOP in Washoe, but they really need to eliminate that entire deficit by election day to stand any chance.


Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports 3m3 minutes ago

Republicans with another solid win in Washoe. 350 votes. Dem lead down to about 1,000 there.
Dem - 4,254
Republican - 4,609
TOTAL - 11,873

Well early voting ends tomorrow.  I doubt they win by 1,000.

Yep, and then there's that near 60k firewall already built up.

[BundouYMB]

Idk why Ralston said it was a good day for the GOP in Washoe. I mean, yes they "won" the day but GOP was +500 in Washoe in 2012 EV. Now with one day to go Democrats are +1,000. Given Obama won Nevada by 7 points in 2012 I don't know in what universe doing worse than 2012 could be called "good."

[ApatheticAustrian]

1) it was a good day, they got crushed by democrats for over a week.

2) the good was written in " " <-

[QE]

Idk why Ralston said it was a good day for the GOP in Washoe. I mean, yes they "won" the day but GOP was +500 in Washoe in 2012 EV. Now with one day to go Democrats are +1,000. Given Obama won Nevada by 7 points in 2012 I don't know in what universe doing worse than 2012 could be called "good."

I was editorializing Ralston's tweet. Looked at in isolation, the GOP "won" the day but I agree that they're doing worse relative to their performance in 2012. Things look dire for the GOP. I also think they may under perform in some of the rural counties, such as Lincoln, White Pine, and Lander - all of which have heavy Mormon populations.

[peterthlee]

Clinton may win Duval County. That's great. This is in line with Quinnipiac and SurveyMonkey polls.

[Confused Democrat]

How is California looking?

Reps are giving Dems a run for their money in California. This state could turn blue with the way things are looking now. Hillary will be lucky to win there.

/s

[psychprofessor]

Clinton may win Duval County. That's great. This is in line with Quinnipiac and SurveyMonkey polls.

If Clinton wins Duval she will most assuredly win the state. Schale seemed to think if EV continues on the current trajectory, Florida should be called pretty early on Tuesday night.

[Speed of Sound]

Idk why Ralston said it was a good day for the GOP in Washoe. I mean, yes they "won" the day but GOP was +500 in Washoe in 2012 EV. Now with one day to go Democrats are +1,000. Given Obama won Nevada by 7 points in 2012 I don't know in what universe doing worse than 2012 could be called "good."

Ralston has a lingo. He looks day to day, without precedent in his first tweets, fills in reality along the night. They did, as he notes first, win Washoe. He just enjoys telling you what that really means an hour later.

[gf20202]

Clinton may win Duval County. That's great. This is in line with Quinnipiac and SurveyMonkey polls.

If Clinton wins Duval she will most assuredly win the state. Schale seemed to think if EV continues on the current trajectory, Florida should be called pretty early on Tuesday night.

Schale is optimistic, but don't think it had anything to do with the trajectory. More to do with having 70% of the vote counted almost instantaneously because it was already banked.

[Speed of Sound]

Another 'good' day for the GOP in Washoe, but they really need to eliminate that entire deficit by election day to stand any chance.


Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports 3m3 minutes ago

Republicans with another solid win in Washoe. 350 votes. Dem lead down to about 1,000 there.
Dem - 4,254
Republican - 4,609
TOTAL - 11,873

Well early voting ends tomorrow.  I doubt they win by 1,000.

And I don't care if they do (they won't), with what Clark's doing.

[Dr. Arch]

What are the final numbers for Clark tonight?

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

What are the final numbers for Clark tonight?

They come out around 10:30pm pst.

[ApatheticAustrian]

What are the final numbers for Clark tonight?

wait at least half n hour more.

[RI]

Total vote cast in FL so far as % of 2012 total vote (Atlas shades):



Highest percentages seem to be in the popular retirement areas of the SW/the Villages. Central Panhandle lagging most.

[calvinhobbesliker]

Another BIG day for Dems in Clark.  18.1k Ds, 12.3k Rs, total 40.7k.  Dems by just about 5800!

https://twitter.com/sorceror43/status/794402570500354048

[ApatheticAustrian]

groundbreaking

i am sure, ralston is going to tell us in a minute, how this compares with the result in 2012.....:-P

[Dr. Arch]

Ds overperform 2012 Firewall considerably above 60k.

Jon Ralston
‏@RalstonReports

Day 13 of early voting in Clark, 2016: Ds +5,794

Day 13 of early voting in Clark, 2012: Ds +5,673

I told you it looked a lot like 2012.

[ApatheticAustrian]

so.....and we even beat 2012.

happy everyone?

[gf20202]

so.....and we even beat 2012.

happy everyone?

Eh, 2012 levels wasn't enough to save Berkley and I believe that's a lower percentage given the registration numbers have increased.

But still great. Didn't Obama have a 71k early vote lead there in 1012? Will come close with another strong day tomorrow.

[NOVA Green]

Meanwhile in Solid Democratic Oregon:

Updates posted for ballots returned through EOB 11/2:

+120k New votes with total for 36.6% turnout (878k ballots cast).

Total ballots to date are:

EV (48.4 D- 34.6 R- 17.0 I) vs RV (41.4D- 30.0 R- 28.6 I)

Enthusiasm gap appears to continue for Republicans in Oregon with % of of EV vs RV numbers by party.

(43.1-42.4-21.9 D-R-I).

This is an extremely unusual phenomenon in Oregon and of the (22) of (36) counties  on my list, Republicans lead in EV turnout numbers only only four (Curry, Josephine, Umatilla, and Malheur) and even lag in heavily Republican Counties that typically vote 60-40+ Republican, where one would expect Trump's message to resonate (Douglas & Linn).

Metro- Portland:

Multnomah- EV (68D-16 R-16* I) vs RV (69D-16R-15I) with % of EV turnout by party (41.4 D-
40.3 R- 22.0 I). This is the breadbasket of Democratic votes in Oregon with >20% of the total statewide vote, and responsible for Dems having won all statewide elections for decades. Romney/McCain barely won 21% of the County vote in '08/'12 vs Bush Jr with 27% in '04. Trump won only 55% of the Republican Primary vote running unopposed in mid-May (Kasich 23%).... I would not be surprised to see Trump end up with only 15-18% of the vote this year.

Clackamas- EV (47D- 36 R- 17 I) vs RV (39D- 33 R- 28 I). % of EV turnout by Party (40D-36R-20I).
Classic "swing county Oregon" that has a mixture of some of wealthiest suburbs of Portland, with a large Middle-Class and Blue-Collar contingent in suburban, rural and exurban county. Trump garnered 61% of the R vote in the primaries, and overall total county turnout is only 32.7%, one of the lowest in the state, and extremely unusual for a county in Metro PDX.

Washington- EV (50D-32R-19I) vs RV (42D-28R-30I). % of EV by Party (42D-38R-22I).

One of the most rapidly growing counties in the state, home to two two Fortune 100 Companies (Nike & Intel), and also one of the most diverse counties in Oregon with Americans from a wide range of counties of origin. 2016 (R) primaries (Trump 56- Kasich- 22). Indies tend to vote heavily Democratic here (McCain/Romney) 38/40% respectively. i would not be shocked to see Clinton win closer to a 2:1 margin here...

Yamhill- EV (41D-41*R-23I) vs RV (33D-37R-30I). % of EV by Party (45D-41R-23I).

Rapidly growing Exurban County, with a large Latino population whose children go to the same schools as Anglo kids in the small towns and rural areas here, and although Reps have finally taken a narrow EV lead, the Indie voter turnout is the highest in Metro-PDX, and still looking like a Dem '16 flip county.

Mid-Willamette Valley

Marion- EV (43D-41R- 16I) vs RV (35*D-35R- 30I). % of EV by Party (44D-43R-19I)

Another "swing county" and again (D) turnout is surpassing (R) turnout in a county with a large number of Latinos.

Polk- EV (42D-42*R-16I) vs RV (35D-38R-27I). % of EV by Party (46D-43R-22I)

See notes above for Yamhill, but also has a large college community, as well as a Democratic base in West Salem.

Linn- EV (37D-45R-18I) vs RV (38D-44R-18I). % of EV by Party (42D-41R-23I).

This should be Trump country where one might expect to see a Democratic "enthusiasm gap" in a plus +11/16 (McCain/Romney) area, with a ton of WWC voters.... It is interesting to actually see registered Democrats voting at higher numbers than RV Reps.... still not sure what is happening here, but suspect that Trump isn't making the case in places like Albany, where Anglos and Latinos work in the same freeze-fry plants, USW jobs, and commute to work in Corvallis and Salem....

Benton- EV (57D-27R-17I) vs RV (49D-25R-25I). % of EV by Party (44D-39R-25I).

Heavily college town mixed with Tech sector works and professionals. Trump only won 55% of the Rep vote running unopposed, and Indies and even many registered Reps skew Left. I would be surprised to see Trump crack over 30% of the vote here, and quite likely create a new record Dem margin in a county that actually used to vote for Republicans for President even back in the days of Ronald Reagan.

Lane- EV (55D-30R-15I) vs RV (46D-27R-27I). % of EV by Party (39D-37R-19I).

Turnout is unusually low across the board (33% to date) that doesn't mirror results we are seeing elsewhere in Oregon. This is typically a 60-40% (D) county in national elections, and although most think of this as the home of the University of Oregon, there is also an extremely large rural population and a ton of WWC workers in the timber mills. We'll see how this trend plays out and if it indicates a Trump surge in Southern Oregon.

Coastal Oregon:

Columbia- EV (47D-34R-21I) vs RV (39D-31R-30I). % of EV by Party (42D-38R-21I).

This should be the classic home of the mythical "Reagan Democrat".... A deeply ancestral New Deal Democratic Union county that more often than not votes Republican in statewide elections, and even the much maligned Nate Silver considers to be representative of the decline of WWC voters statewide. Now there is a decent argument that many (D)s shifted to (I)s over the past few decades, but the EV turnout levels appear to indicate that even here many Republicans and Republican leaning Indies aren't buying the Trump train.

Clatsop- EV (49D-32R-20I) vs RV (41D-29R-29*I). % of EV by Party (47D-44R-26I).

Small coastal community heavily dominated by logging, fishing, and tourism, with a high % of retirees. Also, home to one of the largest Community Colleges in the NorthCoast of Oregon. Indies tend to break 60-40 (D) in GEs and less so in statewide elections.

Tillamook- EV (47D-37R-16I) vs RV (38D-33R-29I). % of EV by Party (48D-37R-16I).

Another small coastal county with logging, fishing, and farming (dairy) with tourism being a much smaller component because of the remote location compared to major metro areas. Trump actually did quite well in the primary (68%) and this is one of those counties that went twice for George Jr and then narrowly Obama twice as well. Good chance that there are some ancestral Dems that switched to Indie that might be receptive to Trump. Still EV numbers looking extremely impressive for the Dems.

Lincoln- EV (50D-31R-19I) vs RV (42D-27R-31I). % of EV by Party (53D-52R-27I).

Another coastal county with logging, fishing, and tourism being dominant, but also has one of the highest % of 65+ in the state. This is a county where Republicans are rapidly becoming extinct, outside of a few large metro areas. Consistently 60-40+ (D) in GEs and also part of the six counties that always vote Dem in close statewide elections. Lincoln could well start moving towards a 2:1 (D) County if current trends continue....

Southern Oregon:

Douglas- EV (32D-52R-16I) vs RV (27D-44R-29I). % of EV by Party (49*D-49R-24I).

Finally some good news for Republicans in Oregon! However, unfortunately, apparently they aren't as enthusiastic as usual and Democrats actually lead so far as a % of voter turnout by Party. Again there might be some ancestral reg Dems voting Trump in a county where Dukakis actually won almost 47%, but I'm still a bit shocked that Dems are turning out in higher numbers here.

Coos- EV (41*D-41R-18I) vs RV (34D-36R-30I). % of turnout by party (49D-46R-24I).

This is yet another New Deal ancestral Dem county, where one should expect Trump to be out-performing (77% R- Primary), but yet enthusiasm appears to be stronger for the Dems. Again, one could make an argument that many of these Indies are backing Trump, but still doesn't explain why Dems are still leading in a county where Reps hold an RV lead.

Josephine- EV (32D-51R-17I) vs RV (28D-42R-30I). % of Party turnout (46D-48R-22I).

Finally, another county with good news for Trump in all metrics. idk if Trump will actually outperform Romney/McCain margins vs Obama here, but still signs look good here for Reps.

Jackson- EV (41D-43R-16I) vs RV (35D-37R-28I). % of Party turnout (48D-47R-23I).

On surface EV numbers might appear decent for Reps, but this is a narrow '08 Obama County and Indies tend to skew Dem, especially down in the college and tourist town Ashland, and yet again Dems lead as a % of party turnout to date....

Central/Eastern Oregon:

Deschutes- EV (41D-42R-18I) vs RV (35D-37R-28I). % of EV turnout by party ID (47D-46R-25I).

Indies are fickle out here, and Dem % of turnout looks good in a county that could easily go either way.

Wasco- EV (43D-38R-19I) vs RV (36D-32*R-32I). % of EV turnout by party ID (48D-47R-24I).

Lots of Indies out here in a WWC Columbia River Gorge county.... EV vs RV numbers look good for Dems, as well as greater Dem enthusiasm... We'll see what happens, but will def be watching this on ED to see if it flips back (D) for the first time in awhile.

Umatilla- EV (29D-49R-22I) vs RV (25D-39R-36I). % of EV turnout by party ID (44D-46R-22I).

Strange county that is both heavily Mormon and Latino... Wildcard county that I certainly don't expect to flip will be interesting to watch, especially with 36% registered Indies, one of the highest in the state.

Malheur- EV (23D-59R-19I) vs RV (19D-46R-35I). % of EV turnout by party ID (46D-46R-21I).

See Umatilla above, but less Latino....

Bottom line... Democratic turnout is exceeding Republican turnout in most of Oregon, even in many counties where we would expect to see a Republican surge.

Additionally, even in the Blue Collar WWC counties in Oregon, there is not any indication that Trump is particularly popular, even in places like Douglas and Linn County that typically vote 60-40 Republican at the Presidential level, and frequently much higher for statewide races.

We will see what happens over the next few days, but I am still shocked to see that Republican Party turnout is lagging Democratic Party turnout almost everywhere in Oregon.

[Panda Express]

How is California looking?

Reps are giving Dems a run for their money in California. This state could turn blue with the way things are looking now. Hillary will be lucky to win there.

/s

Yeah yeah, but if it's really bloody out there (depressed GOP turnout, hispanic surge etc), that could be good for picking up several house seats

[Dr. Arch]

Additionally, even in the Blue Collar WWC counties in Oregon, there is not any indication that Trump is particularly popular, even in places like Douglas and Linn County that typically vote 60-40 Republican at the Presidential level, and frequently much higher for statewide races.

We will see what happens over the next few days, but I am still shocked to see that Republican Party turnout is lagging Democratic Party turnout almost everywhere in Oregon.

The perfect storm of an energized D base supported by a massive and elaborate GOTV machine and a depressed GOP turnout because of an awful candidate with practically no ground game.

[psychprofessor]

Ds overperform 2012 Firewall considerably above 60k.

Jon Ralston
‏@RalstonReports

Day 13 of early voting in Clark, 2016: Ds +5,794

Day 13 of early voting in Clark, 2012: Ds +5,673

I told you it looked a lot like 2012.

Well, if tomorrow is gonna look like 2012, we are in for about 50k early votes in Clark. On the last day of EV in Clark four years ago, 48,000 people showed up. Tomorrow could be a bonanza.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Nevada. Hopefully tomorrow continues to match/exceed 2012 levels.

So, tonight's bottom line is that it's looking good for Dems in NV and CO, decent in FL, but still pretty dire in NC. I really, really, really hope Black turnout finally surges there tomorrow. These low %s terrify me.

[Dr. Arch]

Nevada. Hopefully tomorrow continues to match/exceed 2012 levels.

So, tonight's bottom line is that it's looking good for Dems in NV and CO, decent in FL, but still pretty dire in NC. I really, really, really hope Black turnout finally surges there tomorrow. These low %s terrify me.

Things have drastically improved in NC because the AA vote has finally started getting out in droves. And remember, just because they are a smaller share doesn't mean they're not voting. More have voted this year than in 2012.