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| |-+  2016 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter, TJ in Wisco)
| | |-+  absentee/early vote thread, part 2
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Author Topic: absentee/early vote thread, part 2  (Read 71212 times)
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Icefire9
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« Reply #550 on: November 04, 2016, 08:39:53 am »
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Democrats have closed the gap again in Florida yesterday and the difference is now less than 2k from 12k
But they won it 43-40 in 2012...
With Dixiecrats in the mix. Many of them have switched reg since 2012.

you don't know that for a fact

Actually, we do. Schale found 50,000 Republican early voters in 2016 who were registered as Democrats in 2012.
Not to mention, these voters were in parts of northern Florida that have very high Democratic registration levels, but always vote reliably Republican.
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« Reply #551 on: November 04, 2016, 08:42:57 am »
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Democrats have closed the gap again in Florida yesterday and the difference is now less than 2k from 12k
But they won it 43-40 in 2012...
With Dixiecrats in the mix. Many of them have switched reg since 2012.

you don't know that for a fact
OK, explain to me why so many (overwhelmingly white) Dems have switched reg in the interim. Iĺl wait.

i don't know but you don't know as well. who knows how many democrats didn't switch their registration for ages and are voting republican? you are just guessing, skewing the news so they can fit your narrative. but that's kind of worse. landing on election night will only come harder.

We (people on democratic campaigns) have access to voter reg data and history.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #552 on: November 04, 2016, 08:51:29 am »
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Democrats have closed the gap again in Florida yesterday and the difference is now less than 2k from 12k
But they won it 43-40 in 2012...
With Dixiecrats in the mix. Many of them have switched reg since 2012.

you don't know that for a fact
OK, explain to me why so many (overwhelmingly white) Dems have switched reg in the interim. Iĺl wait.

i don't know but you don't know as well. who knows how many democrats didn't switch their registration for ages and are voting republican? you are just guessing, skewing the news so they can fit your narrative. but that's kind of worse. landing on election night will only come harder.

We (people on democratic campaigns) have access to voter reg data and history.

Do you have a more specific # than Steve Schale's (total, not just who has early voted).
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #553 on: November 04, 2016, 08:52:27 am »
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Ralston and Schale have posted their daily updates. I'll give excerpts:

http://www.ktnv.com/news/ralston/the-nevada-early-voting-blog

Quote
Trump still has a very narrow path here that goes like this: Hold the Dems to a reasonable win on Friday and, because turnout is down, squeeze extra GOP voters out on Tuesday, especially in rural Nevada, where Republicans now have about a 25,000 vote lead. The Republicans need to win Election Day pretty big -- remember the Dems won it in '12

http://steveschale.com/blog/2016/11/4/it-is-friday-somewhere-and-that-somewhere-is-2016-election.html

Quote
All of this has me leaning a bit that the state is shaping up nicely for HRC, but while I think that, in no way is it in the bag, or close to it. Donald Trump could still very well win Florida, and it remains exceptionally close. The race really will go to the side that does the best job over the next 96 hours. I used the term “crazy close” yesterday and I think it still works today.
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« Reply #554 on: November 04, 2016, 08:54:19 am »
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Ralston and Schale are political hacks. Doesn't mean they are wrong, just saying.
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« Reply #555 on: November 04, 2016, 08:55:02 am »
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There are a lot of people one can shrug off. You shrug off those two at your own peril.
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bilaps
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« Reply #556 on: November 04, 2016, 09:02:59 am »
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I'm not shrugging them off, i'm just saying they are hacks. I've stated constantly on here that according to early vote Nevada is lean D or likely D. You can't ignore the numbers. But I can ignore people like Ralston saying "until cows come home" basically offending all rural voters. I'm sick of these guys so offended by Trump and in essence same like himm. Also, Schale having a twitter erection two days ago and after that we've seen actual returns and actualy Republicans won that day. So i don't doubt data i'm just doubting their "objective" expectations.
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« Reply #557 on: November 04, 2016, 09:05:10 am »
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I'm not shrugging them off, i'm just saying they are hacks. I've stated constantly on here that according to early vote Nevada is lean D or likely D. You can't ignore the numbers. But I can ignore people like Ralston saying "until cows come home" basically offending all rural voters. I'm sick of these guys so offended by Trump and in essence same like himm. Also, Schale having a twitter erection two days ago and after that we've seen actual returns and actualy Republicans won that day. So i don't doubt data i'm just doubting their "objective" expectations.

The cows joke isnt an insult to rural people, you offend way too easily if you found that of all things to be offensive.
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« Reply #558 on: November 04, 2016, 09:07:58 am »
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I'm not shrugging them off, i'm just saying they are hacks. I've stated constantly on here that according to early vote Nevada is lean D or likely D. You can't ignore the numbers. But I can ignore people like Ralston saying "until cows come home" basically offending all rural voters. I'm sick of these guys so offended by Trump and in essence same like himm. Also, Schale having a twitter erection two days ago and after that we've seen actual returns and actualy Republicans won that day. So i don't doubt data i'm just doubting their "objective" expectations.
Wow, you're offended over a common idiom?!

'The cows come home' isn't directed at rural people, it's an idiomatic phrase that means he's waiting for people. 'Until the cows come home' means a very long time.

Is English your first language? If it is, there's no excuse for this deliberate nonsense.
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« Reply #559 on: November 04, 2016, 09:14:43 am »
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Tom Bonier

OH
"OH: Upward trend in Franklin EV turnout keeps getting steeper, now only 0.5% share behind '12. Cuyahoga trending up, not as fast, 1.7% down."

MI
"AV in MI also skews whiter, with 88% of ballots returned coming from white voters."
"Interestingly, ballots returned in MI so far skew heavily female, with 57% of ballots cast coming from women"
"The AV returned so far skews much older (over 60 no fault abs) with only 6% of votes coming from millennials"
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« Reply #560 on: November 04, 2016, 09:16:48 am »
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Given the rules in MI, I wouldn't be thinking too much about it
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« Reply #561 on: November 04, 2016, 09:39:10 am »
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Another 'good' day for the GOP in Washoe, but they really need to eliminate that entire deficit by election day to stand any chance.


Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports 3m3 minutes ago

Republicans with another solid win in Washoe. 350 votes. Dem lead down to about 1,000 there.
Dem - 4,254
Republican - 4,609
TOTAL - 11,873


Well early voting ends tomorrow.  I doubt they win by 1,000.

Yep, and then there's that near 60k firewall already built up.




Can someone explain something to me?  I checked 2012 results in Washoe, there were over 180,000 votes cast with Obama winning by 4%.

Were saying most of the vote in Nevada will have already been cast by ED. but there are only 11,000 votes cast so far in Washoe.....what am i missing?
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« Reply #562 on: November 04, 2016, 09:40:27 am »
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Another 'good' day for the GOP in Washoe, but they really need to eliminate that entire deficit by election day to stand any chance.


Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports 3m3 minutes ago

Republicans with another solid win in Washoe. 350 votes. Dem lead down to about 1,000 there.
Dem - 4,254
Republican - 4,609
TOTAL - 11,873


Well early voting ends tomorrow.  I doubt they win by 1,000.

Yep, and then there's that near 60k firewall already built up.




Can someone explain something to me?  I checked 2012 results in Washoe, there were over 180,000 votes cast with Obama winning by 4%.

Were saying most of the vote in Nevada will have already been cast by ED. but there are only 11,000 votes cast so far in Washoe.....what am i missing?

That was 11k votes in the day, not overall
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« Reply #563 on: November 04, 2016, 09:41:02 am »
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Last day of early voting by state:

Nevada: Today
Texas: Today
Arizona: Today
Wisconsin: Today
Georgia: Today
North Carolina: Saturday
Florida: Saturday or Sunday (depends on the county)
Ohio: Monday
Iowa: Monday

Sunday's numbers will be interesting in Florida. All the big Democratic leaning counties will be open for EV while most of the Republican leaning counties will be closed.  
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« Reply #564 on: November 04, 2016, 09:41:08 am »
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Another 'good' day for the GOP in Washoe, but they really need to eliminate that entire deficit by election day to stand any chance.


Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports 3m3 minutes ago

Republicans with another solid win in Washoe. 350 votes. Dem lead down to about 1,000 there.
Dem - 4,254
Republican - 4,609
TOTAL - 11,873


Well early voting ends tomorrow.  I doubt they win by 1,000.

Yep, and then there's that near 60k firewall already built up.




Can someone explain something to me?  I checked 2012 results in Washoe, there were over 180,000 votes cast with Obama winning by 4%.

Were saying most of the vote in Nevada will have already been cast by ED. but there are only 11,000 votes cast so far in Washoe.....what am i missing?

Obama won the election day vote and very likely indies in Washoe. There's no reason to believe the same won't happen to Clinton seeing how early voting has been going in the state.
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« Reply #565 on: November 04, 2016, 09:41:50 am »
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Another 'good' day for the GOP in Washoe, but they really need to eliminate that entire deficit by election day to stand any chance.


Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports 3m3 minutes ago

Republicans with another solid win in Washoe. 350 votes. Dem lead down to about 1,000 there.
Dem - 4,254
Republican - 4,609
TOTAL - 11,873


Well early voting ends tomorrow.  I doubt they win by 1,000.

Yep, and then there's that near 60k firewall already built up.




Can someone explain something to me?  I checked 2012 results in Washoe, there were over 180,000 votes cast with Obama winning by 4%.

Were saying most of the vote in Nevada will have already been cast by ED. but there are only 11,000 votes cast so far in Washoe.....what am i missing?

That was 11k votes in the day, not overall

Gotcha, I figured. Thanks.

Where can i find the up to date total votes cast by county results? NV SoS site?

By the way, love this thread, been reading it for about 2-3 weeks or so....check it every morning and throughout the day haha..........

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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #566 on: November 04, 2016, 09:50:13 am »
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Democrats have closed the gap again in Florida yesterday and the difference is now less than 2k from 12k
But they won it 43-40 in 2012...
With Dixiecrats in the mix. Many of them have switched reg since 2012.

you don't know that for a fact

Actually, we do. Schale found 50,000 Republican early voters in 2016 who were registered as Democrats in 2012.
50k is nothing.
And how much switched back?

According to Upshot/Sienna poll. Trump is doing great among white uneducated registred Dems.
Quote
He’s so strong that Mrs. Clinton has just 55 percent of the vote among white registered Democrats without a degree, compared with Mr. Trump’s 32 percent.

Unfortunately, they don't specify what is numbers among all registred Dems/Reps. But they do specify the numbers among self-id D/R.
Dems: Clinton 86, Trump  7
Reps:  Trump  86, Clinton 5

Upshot mentions though that % of registred D > % self-id D (some D are saying they are R probably), which implyes, that Trump is probably doing even better among registred Dems than among self-id Dems.

But of course, one poll is just one poll.
« Last Edit: November 04, 2016, 09:52:25 am by Happy Sad Trumpista »Logged

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« Reply #567 on: November 04, 2016, 09:54:10 am »
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Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  19s20 seconds ago
Louisiana early vote update 11/4: 521,325 voted (+146% over total of 2012). Afr-Am +20,727 (+17.5%), White +135,623 (+59.6%)


Also fun fact: MA early votes are at exactly 700,000.
« Last Edit: November 04, 2016, 09:58:12 am by Castro »Logged
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« Reply #568 on: November 04, 2016, 10:00:04 am »
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Gotcha, I figured. Thanks.

Where can i find the up to date total votes cast by county results? NV SoS site?

By the way, love this thread, been reading it for about 2-3 weeks or so....check it every morning and throughout the day haha..........



Always glad to have another nerd on board! Smiley http://www.electproject.org/early_2016 is your friend for finding out where to get up to date numbers from each state. For NV, you can also follow Jon Ralston on twitter, who has the connections to often get Clark and Washoe numbers before the state has them registered.
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« Reply #569 on: November 04, 2016, 10:06:12 am »
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Been following him too.

Ready for this election to be over. So disappointed in my country right now.

Disappointed in some friends and family too.
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« Reply #570 on: November 04, 2016, 10:18:00 am »
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Does anyone have 2016 vs. 2012 EV totals for Florida with party breakdowns included as well? EV in the state is just about over and wondering how they compare? Thanks
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« Reply #571 on: November 04, 2016, 10:19:52 am »
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Does anyone have 2016 vs. 2012 EV totals for Florida with party breakdowns included as well? EV in the state is just about over and wondering how they compare? Thanks

http://www.electproject.org/2012_early_vote

Has some basic breakdowns of the final 2012 EV %s. I'm not great for finding all the charts and graphs and things like that. Arch might know if he pops in today.
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« Reply #572 on: November 04, 2016, 10:21:27 am »
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http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/03/politics/early-voting-battleground-states/index.html

Arizona
- Registered Republicans are ahead right now by 5.5%. But at this point four years ago, the GOP had a 10% advantage over Democrats.
- But the good news for Republicans here is that it appears they're gaining ground. One week ago, their lead over Democrats was only about 11,500. Today that lead is more than 71,000.

Colorado
- The Democratic lead one week ago was about 5.6%. It stands at 1.5% today.

Florida
- GOP has a 16K lead (trailed by 73K in 2008)
- Latinos had the largest spike in terms of raw votes, boosting their turnout by 129% from 2008. - White voters increased their turnout by 55%.
- And even though African-American turnout is up by 24% that is clearly a slower growth rate than the other racial groups, and their share of the electorate dropped from 2008.

Iowa
- Right now, about 41,000 more Democrats than Republicans have voted in the Hawkeye State. But at this point four years ago, they had an edge of more than 60,000 votes.

Nevada
- Dems ahead 29K, larger than 1 week ago (4 years ago, they were ahead 38K)

North Carolina
- Right now, registered Democrats are ahead by about 243,000 votes statewide. At this point in 2012, the Democratic lead was more than 307,000 votes.
- Blacks are 28% in 2012 to about 23% today.

Ohio
- Registered Republicans expanded their lead this week in Ohio. They're now ahead of Democrats by almost 66,000 votes, or about 5 points. They were only up by 2.5 points one week ago.

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« Reply #573 on: November 04, 2016, 10:25:21 am »
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We passed 37 million votes cast this morning!
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« Reply #574 on: November 04, 2016, 10:27:32 am »
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So based on those Iowa numbers, why does it look so dire for HRC there? Obama won the state by 92k votes after an EV advantage of 60k. The election day vote shift would have to be substantial.
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