absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[Minnesota Mike]

You do know that all those Indy's are not going to break for Trump, don't you?

Trump has to win Indys by 20 points to make up for the early vote deficit. There is no evidence that this is happening. A single outlier CNN poll doesn't prove they are

Actually, a FOX News poll had Trump winning Independents by I believe 44 to 33?

Again there is a difference between self identified Independents and and those who are registered as NPA.

[Speed of Sound]

I come back from my meeting and both Nevada and Florida are putting up #yuuuuuuuuuuuuuuge numbers! You can just sense Schale's excitement; he knows what numbers need to be gathered, and he's watching those goals getting closer and closer.

[ApatheticAustrian]

5000 more clark votes in just one hour.


https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/794669496162074624?lang=de

[Speed of Sound]

Hit the turning point in CO.

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[ApatheticAustrian]

i guess we are going to hear each day now, that CO is safe R.

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

Hit the turning point in CO. No way Rs match 2012 with time left.

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When does early voting end in CO?

[Ozymandias]

Steve Schale ‏@steveschale  2m2 minutes ago
Yesterday I tweeted Wed was record day for Black turnout in Florida.  Well it was.

Thursday was better. 
62,500 votes
Up to 12.2% share

[ApatheticAustrian]

When does early voting end in CO?

never, since it's mail-only.

[Speed of Sound]

Hit the turning point in CO. No way Rs match 2012 with time left.

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When does early voting end in CO?

Runs straight through, so I actually revise that statement. They'd have to stay strong, but they could still match 2012. In the world of 2012, being 2% ahead gave the Republicans a 5.5% loss. If they only match (or don't even match), hard to see where any magic appears for them.

[BoAtlantis]

Steve Schale

"Yesterday I tweeted Wed was record day for Black turnout in Florida.  Well it was.
Thursday was better. 
62,500 votes
Up to 12.2% share"

"Soooo. Almost 47K people voted in Broward County today.  Hint:  That is a lot.  Like 6-7K better than the best day of the year."

[Speed of Sound]

More on Florida's massive day:

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[BoAtlantis]

Ralston

"Clark County voters w/3 hours left: 32,800. May not get to 50K. My guess is Ds will not increase margin by 10K as did on last day in '12."

[Goldwater64]

The white vote is up in many states like AZ, NV, FL, NC, and TX.
Who are these white voters?
According to both sides, democrats are drawing new voters, republicans are drawing repeat voters somewhat. These less likely voters won't be picked up in the polls of likely voters.

The Washingtin post had an article on 10/27 entitled "How the
early vote is shaping up in Texas, Nevada, and Florida".
They cleary show in their charts that these new voters are coming from democratic TX and NV counties 2 to 1 suggesting Hillary voters maybe. But today they mention white vote surging in FL and make no mention of what counties these votes are coming from.
It would seem to me that if these white voters are likely decide this election, they should mention," Hey 60% are coming from democratic leaning counties or something". Doesn't  mean they will vote any which way but for the sake if transparency...

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

Hit the turning point in CO.

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Can we start chicken littleing now?

[Speed of Sound]

Hit the turning point in CO.

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Can we start chicken littleing now?

See my pre-empting of this question here:

They'd have to stay strong, but they could still match 2012. In the world of 2012, being 2% ahead gave the Republicans a 5.5% loss. If they only match (or don't even match), hard to see where any magic appears for them.

[Speed of Sound]

Voting lasts longer than usual tonight in NV. Expect final numbers to be a little late, but be oh so worth it.

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[Antonio the Sixth]

Ralston

"Clark County voters w/3 hours left: 32,800. May not get to 50K. My guess is Ds will not increase margin by 10K as did on last day in '12."

Ugh.

[Speed of Sound]

Ralston

"Clark County voters w/3 hours left: 32,800. May not get to 50K. My guess is Ds will not increase margin by 10K as did on last day in '12."

Ugh.

See my post which barely ninja'd yours, however.

[dspNY]

Broward County:

12.5K VBM ballots. Dems 6499, GOP 2818, NPA with the rest
36,123 voted early-in person. Dems 18,739, GOP 7,568, NPA around 11K

Dems add around 14K in Broward

[riceowl]

Hit the turning point in CO.

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Can we start chicken littleing now?

See my pre-empting of this question here:

They'd have to stay strong, but they could still match 2012. In the world of 2012, being 2% ahead gave the Republicans a 5.5% loss. If they only match (or don't even match), hard to see where any magic appears for them.

I guess the question is - how much of that 7.5% swing can we count on?

[NOVA Green]

we are on a roll.


Judge: NC counties must restore voters removed from rolls
http://www.usnews.com/news/us/articles/2016-11-04/judge-nc-counties-must-restore-voters-removed-from-rolls

This is absolutely bizarre from the original quoted article:

"Under state law, any voter can challenge another county resident's registration, resulting in a hearing at which the challenger presents evidence, according to a state legal filing. If local officials find probable cause, the challenged voter is given notice of a subsequent hearing. A voter who doesn't rebut the evidence can be removed."

How can be this legit, particularly in a former Jim Crow state that a voter can be removed from the rolls simply on the testimony of another resident of the county? Also this whole concept of "undeliverable ballots" is completely bizarre to me. In Oregon, we can track the status of our mail ballot and estimated postal delivery date, report lost/stolen ballots to obtain a replacement, and drop off our ballots in any mailbox or ballot drop box anywhere in the state regardless of county.

 

[NOVA Green]

Clinton leads 48-43 in Colorado, with Gary Johnson at 4%, Jill Stein at 2%, and Evan McMullin at 1%. In a head to head match up just between her and Trump, she leads 50-45.

Clinton leads 46-41 in Michigan, with Gary Johnson at 6% and Jill Stein at 2%. Clinton's lead grows slightly to 50/44 in a head to head between her and Trump.

Clinton leads 48-43 in Virginia, with Gary Johnson at 4%, Jill Stein at 1%, and Evan McMullin at 1%. Her leads grows slightly to 51/45 in a head to head between her and Trump.

NH +3
NEVADA +3
NC +2
PA +4
WI +7

publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/11/clinton-leads-by-5-in-firewall-states.html

Welcome to the forum and congrats on your first post!

[Speed of Sound]

Hit the turning point in CO.

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Can we start chicken littleing now?

See my pre-empting of this question here:

They'd have to stay strong, but they could still match 2012. In the world of 2012, being 2% ahead gave the Republicans a 5.5% loss. If they only match (or don't even match), hard to see where any magic appears for them.

I guess the question is - how much of that 7.5% swing can we count on?

UFAs are infamously left leaning in CO. We should be okay on this current trajectory. Rs could get back in it, but it would take some super human efforts or a serious misreading. As PPP said today,

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[Speed of Sound]

Schale asked if he'll make a firm call on Florida:

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[dspNY]

Duval County (leans GOP):

Dems win by 800 votes. They trail by approximately 1600 in party ID out of over 250K votes cast, or 0.6%