absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[Crumpets]

I'm still hopeful about NC.

Most polls consistently show her the slight favorite to win NC.
Mook is going after low propensity voters.
Black voters are down but unaffiliated, educated whites will break for her.

Me as well. I have to imagine that the kind of low-propensity white voters that are showing up aren't overwhelmingly pro-Trump enough to counter the educated whites and Latinos who are turning out for Hillary.

[Ozymandias]

Vote projections for the most Hispanic states (I believe this is overall, not just election day)

Patrick Ruffini ‏@PatrickRuffini  1h1 hour ago
Demographic projections for Tuesday's electorate.

[Ronnie]

Wait, Florida is going to be 63.8% white?  If so, curtains for Trump, as far as I can tell.

[JimSharp]

Odd - that looks LESS Latino compared to CNN 2012 exit polls in NV. (64% White. 19% Latino.) I had heard that Latino reg is up 2% and voting is up? Pew Research has Latino registered as 17% in 2014... Hm?

[Ozymandias]

Odd - that looks LESS Latino compared to CNN 2012 exit polls in NV. (64% White. 19% Latino.) I had heard that Latino reg is up 2% and voting is up? Pew Research has Latino registered as 17% in 2014... Hm?

Yeah, perhaps I shouldn't have posted that table, since I don't really know the provenance of the model(?) that created it...

[Adam Griffin]

Assuming I've read McDonald's state-by-state numbers/columns correctly (some of the labeling sounds weird to me, but meh), here's a map showing the most recent early vote in each state as a percentage of the total 2012 vote.

Numbered are the 11 states where the early vote thus far is over 50% of the 2012 total vote.

Code:

NV	75.61%
AZ	69.18%
TN	68.16%
FL	67.64%
NC	64.36%
GA	60.86%
CO	60.45%
OR	59.35%
MT	56.35%
TX	56.28%
WA	54.21%
--------------
UT	47.21%
AR	46.89%
NM	45.93%
IA	37.68%
MD	36.16%
ND	34.82%
DC	34.50%
KS	32.43%
CA	32.22%
ME	30.51%
WV	27.43%
ID	26.85%
LA	26.31%
WI	25.32%
IN	24.31%
IL	24.04%
MA	22.14%
SC	21.71%
SD	21.61%
NE	21.58%
HI	21.03%
--------------
OH	18.90%
MI	18.10%
AK	17.41%
WY	16.33%
VT	15.13%
OK	14.77%
MN	14.22%
VA	12.52%
DE	5.41%
NJ	4.73%
KY	4.08%
RI	3.78%
NH	3.64%
MO	2.01%
MS	1.08%
AL	0.12%
--------------
CT	0.00%
NY	0.00%
PA	0.00%

[politicallefty]

What's with the early vote in Tennessee?

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/latino-early-vot-surges-from-florida-to-nevada

If they're coming out like nevada in colorado...well, tuesday is looking like a very exciting day.

[Kalimantan]

Assuming I've read McDonald's state-by-state numbers/columns correctly (some of the labeling sounds weird to me, but meh), here's a map showing the most recent early vote in each state as a percentage of the total 2012 vote.

Numbered are the 11 states where the early vote thus far is over 50% of the 2012 total vote.

do you know whats happening in Tennessee?

[BundouYMB]

Assuming I've read McDonald's state-by-state numbers/columns correctly (some of the labeling sounds weird to me, but meh), here's a map showing the most recent early vote in each state as a percentage of the total 2012 vote.

Numbered are the 11 states where the early vote thus far is over 50% of the 2012 total vote.

do you know whats happening in Tennessee?

Nothing is happening in Tennessee. It's simply a state where most of the vote is cast early. Around 75% of the total 2012 vote in TN was EV. There's nothing weird about having 68% of the total 2012 vote in at this point.

[heatcharger]

Over 6.15 million votes cast in Florida so far. Hopefully we get some major "soul to the polls" action today.

[Kalimantan]

Assuming I've read McDonald's state-by-state numbers/columns correctly (some of the labeling sounds weird to me, but meh), here's a map showing the most recent early vote in each state as a percentage of the total 2012 vote.

Numbered are the 11 states where the early vote thus far is over 50% of the 2012 total vote.


do you know whats happening in Tennessee?

Nothing is happening in Tennessee. It's simply a state where most of the vote is cast early. Around 75% of the total 2012 vote in TN was EV. There's nothing weird about having 68% of the total 2012 vote in at this point.

Thanks. I actually meant, is there anything happening with vote totals that might be instructive to the election at large?

[Kalimantan]

Assuming I've read McDonald's state-by-state numbers/columns correctly (some of the labeling sounds weird to me, but meh), here's a map showing the most recent early vote in each state as a percentage of the total 2012 vote.

Numbered are the 11 states where the early vote thus far is over 50% of the 2012 total vote.


do you know whats happening in Tennessee?

Nothing is happening in Tennessee. It's simply a state where most of the vote is cast early. Around 75% of the total 2012 vote in TN was EV. There's nothing weird about having 68% of the total 2012 vote in at this point.

Thanks. I actually meant, is there anything happening with vote totals in TN that might be instructive to the election at large?

[politicallefty]

Nothing is happening in Tennessee. It's simply a state where most of the vote is cast early. Around 75% of the total 2012 vote in TN was EV. There's nothing weird about having 68% of the total 2012 vote in at this point.

I didn't think it was a sign of a close race or anything, but it is a bit of an anomaly. Most of the states with high early voting are Western states or battleground states (Texas is part Western and part battleground, but probably not enough to flip). What drives the early voting in Tennessee of all states? It may not be weird when you look at 2012, but it is weird for a heavily Republican non-Western state to have such a high early vote turnout. On the flip side, I'm surprised to see Ohio so low considering its battleground status and easy early vote options (though I do think that is a state that has a lot of mail votes that come in late).

[Virginiá]

Vote projections for the most Hispanic states (I believe this is overall, not just election day)

Patrick Ruffini ‏@PatrickRuffini  1h1 hour ago
Demographic projections for Tuesday's electorate.

Doesn't Colorado seem a little off there? It says 12.xx% when in 2008 it was 13, and then in 2012 it was 14%. With increased voter access in CO this year and a Hispanic voter surge, shouldn't that number be higher, or at the very least, maintain 2012's share?

Or is this the projected composition of only election day's electorate and not the early vote combined?

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Michael McDonald
‏@ElectProject
NC #earlyvote indicates Trump lead. Sizable increase in unaffiliated early voters wildcard

[BoAtlantis]

Nate Cohn

"Last day of NC early vote was strong for Clinton, esp on black turnout:
192k
White 62.5, Black 27.9
D 41.3, R 29.6
18-29: 21.9
>65: 10.5"

"NC early vote, near final tallies:
3.098m
D 41.7, R 31.9
W 70.7, B 22.2
F 55.5, M 42.2
18-29: 13.1
65+ 27.6"

[alomas]

Michael McDonald
‏@ElectProject
NC #earlyvote indicates Trump lead. Sizable increase in unaffiliated early voters wildcard

Yes! On CNN they also said Democrats are "very nervous" about NC, while Republicans are "bullish" and feeling pretty good. CNN's sources say Trump is +2 in NC.

[Ljube]

What about Florida early vote? Florida is the state that will decide the election.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

https://electionbettingodds.com/earlyvoting.html election betting odds now has an early voting % comparison in 5 key states, for anyone interested.

[Fusionmunster]

Michael McDonald
‏@ElectProject
NC #earlyvote indicates Trump lead. Sizable increase in unaffiliated early voters wildcard

Thats a cop out.

"If you ignore this number, than im pretty sure republicans are ahead"

[win win]

http://www.oldnorthstatepolitics.com/

Last day for early voting in North Carolina;
Dem early vote same as 2012
Rep early vote UP 14 %
Unaffiliated UP 43 %
Black vote DOWN 8 % from 2012 ( 59,000 votes )
White vote UP 19 %
Hispanics vote too low to make a difference.
NC is done. All Trump territory.

[Fusionmunster]

http://www.oldnorthstatepolitics.com/

Last day for early voting in North Carolina;
Dem early vote same as 2012
Rep early vote UP 14 %
Unaffiliated UP 43 %
Black vote DOWN 8 % from 2012 ( 59,000 votes )
White vote UP 19 %
Hispanics vote too low to make a difference.
NC is done. All Trump territory.

Nope.

[win win]

http://www.oldnorthstatepolitics.com/

Last day for early voting in North Carolina;
Dem early vote same as 2012
Rep early vote UP 14 %
Unaffiliated UP 43 %
Black vote DOWN 8 % from 2012 ( 59,000 votes )
White vote UP 19 %
Hispanics vote too low to make a difference.
NC is done. All Trump territory.

Nope.

Let me remind you the GOP won in 2012.
Now add more Republicans and whites, take out some  blacks.
Add some independents, who Trump won in every poll.
She might have a 10% chance here at most.

[Dr. Arch]

http://www.oldnorthstatepolitics.com/

Last day for early voting in North Carolina;
Dem early vote same as 2012
Rep early vote UP 14 %
Unaffiliated UP 43 %
Black vote DOWN 8 % from 2012 ( 59,000 votes )
White vote UP 19 %
Hispanics vote too low to make a difference.
NC is done. All Trump territory.

Nope.

Let me remind you the GOP won in 2012.
Now add more Republicans and whites, take out some  blacks.
Add some independents, who Trump won in every poll.
She might have a 10% chance here at most.

"If I analyze this state like Alabama, Trump wins!"