absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[Person Man]

And right now the old and those in conservative CDs seem to be the ones casting ballots and republicans ares still 3000 behind where they were.

this site claims pubs have a lead of about 2k votes since this afternoon ...

http://magellanstrategies.com/colorado-2016-ballots-returned-reports/?utm_content=buffer26329&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

but i am not sure if this is reliable information.

I am not sure how they would since the CO SOS is closed on weekends and there is no mail on Sunday.

[Ebsy]

I mean, what is occurring in Colorado is basically both parties voting equal to their registration, with Republicans having fallen in registration since 2012 so that Democrats now narrowly lead. In that context, Democrats are well positioned to win the state rather easily.

[Adam Griffin]

As of today's early voting figures. Florida crosses the 70% threshold and NC comes very close, too.

'16 EV as a % of '12 Total:

Code:

NV 75.87%
FL 72.61%
AZ 69.18%
NC 68.96%
TN 68.16%
GA 61.00%
CO 60.45%
OR 59.35%
MT 56.35%
TX 56.28%
WA 54.21%
-----------
UT 47.21%
AR 46.89%
NM 45.93%
IA 37.68%
MD 36.16%
ND 34.82%
DC 34.50%
KS 32.43%
CA 32.22%
ME 30.51%
WV 27.43%
ID 26.85%
LA 26.31%
WI 25.32%
IN 24.31%
IL 24.04%
MA 22.14%
SC 21.71%
SD 21.61%
NE 21.58%
HI 21.03%
-----------
OH 18.90%
MI 18.10%
AK 17.41%
WY 16.33%
VT 15.13%
OK 14.77%
MN 14.22%
VA 12.52%
DE 5.41%
NJ 4.73%
KY 4.08%
RI 3.78%
NH 3.64%
MO 2.01%
MS 1.08%
AL 0.12%
-----------
CT 0.00%
NY 0.00%
PA 0.00% 

[alomas]

Florida Guy ‏@floridaguy267

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Collier went 65-35 (by 45k votes) for GOP in 2012 while Lee went 58-47 (by 44k votes).

[Person Man]

I mean, what is occurring in Colorado is basically both parties voting equal to their registration, with Republicans having fallen in registration since 2012 so that Democrats now narrowly lead. In that context, Democrats are well positioned to win the state rather easily.

It is looking like the polling average is about a point ahead, too.

[swf541]

And right now the old and those in conservative CDs seem to be the ones casting ballots and republicans ares still 3000 behind where they were.

this site claims pubs have a lead of about 2k votes since this afternoon ...

http://magellanstrategies.com/colorado-2016-ballots-returned-reports/?utm_content=buffer26329&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

but i am not sure if this is reliable information.

Well considering its Magellan.... I dont know it seems like it could be misleading

[ApatheticAustrian]

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https://twitter.com/electionsmith/status/795440179242815488

it's a shame that NC got killed strategically.

[HillOfANight]

As of today's early voting figures. Florida crosses the 70% threshold and NC comes very close, too.

'16 EV as a % of '12 Total:

Code:

NV 75.87%
FL 72.61%
AZ 69.18%
NC 68.96%
TN 68.16%
GA 61.00%
CO 60.45%
OR 59.35%
MT 56.35%
TX 56.28%
WA 54.21%
-----------
UT 47.21%
AR 46.89%
NM 45.93%
IA 37.68%
MD 36.16%
ND 34.82%
DC 34.50%
KS 32.43%
CA 32.22%
ME 30.51%
WV 27.43%
ID 26.85%
LA 26.31%
WI 25.32%
IN 24.31%
IL 24.04%
MA 22.14%
SC 21.71%
SD 21.61%
NE 21.58%
HI 21.03%
-----------
OH 18.90%
MI 18.10%
AK 17.41%
WY 16.33%
VT 15.13%
OK 14.77%
MN 14.22%
VA 12.52%
DE 5.41%
NJ 4.73%
KY 4.08%
RI 3.78%
NH 3.64%
MO 2.01%
MS 1.08%
AL 0.12%
-----------
CT 0.00%
NY 0.00%
PA 0.00% 

Cool! There's been lots of hand wringing about Black turnout, and though the share has been down, the turnout hasn't been (except North Carolina due to the GOP).

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/794566786960199680

Georgia race comparison to 2012 same day
Afr-Am +28,935 (+5.2%)
White +292,321 (+29.6%)

With whites up bigly in the Georgia early vote, wonder if they'll be weaker on election day, or if this is new voters for Trump.

[ApatheticAustrian]

once again:

if trump wins....

don't blame blacks, don't blame latinos and i may be wrong but it won't be women....

most likely still white men college-educated or not and idealistic third-partiers.

[Speed of Sound]

once again:

if trump wins....

don't blame blacks, don't blame latinos and i may be wrong but it won't be women....

most likely still white men college-educated or not and idealistic third-partiers.

Yep, that'll be your culprit right there.

[Green Line]

Early voting should be illegal.  What's the point of even having an election day anymore?  Let's just make it election month for lazy Americans.

[ApatheticAustrian]

Early voting should be illegal.  What's the point of even having an election day anymore?  Let's just make it election month for lazy Americans.

watching how amazingly some states still fail with the ED crowd after 2 weeks of EV, i would increase penalties or create a set of higher federal laws to fulfill.

[Speed of Sound]

Early voting should be illegal.  What's the point of even having an election day anymore?  Let's just make it election month for lazy Americans.

I'll translate:

"Those -----'s and damn lazy ---------'s are allowed to vote. I don't believe they should be allowed to. Whites will vote on ED. To hell with every obvious attempt to suppress voting. To hell with the thought that voting is our most inalienable right and duty. I don't want to make the pillar of our government and identity stronger because I hate non-whites for voting D"

[Devout Centrist]

Early voting should be illegal.  What's the point of even having an election day anymore?  Let's just make it election month for lazy Americans.

I'm glad you're not within a mile of the instruments of power in this nation.

[dspNY]

Early vote differentials on the final day of EV in Florida:

Bay: GOP +1153
Bradford: GOP +61
Broward: DEM +19148
Charlotte: GOP +510
Duval: DEM +3095
Hillsborough: DEM +3562
Leon: DEM +3064
Osceola: DEM +2035
Pinellas: DEM +1196
Polk: DEM +734
Seminole: DEM +152
St. Lucie: DEM +825
Suwannee: DEM +1

No information publicly available for Miami-Dade or Palm Beach until tomorrow morning. Orange should come in later. The total Democratic advantage in Florida today without those three counties is 32,028 before we hear from M-Dade, PB and Orange

[Dr. Arch]

Early vote differentials on the final day of EV in Florida:

Bay: GOP +1153
Bradford: GOP +61
Broward: DEM +19148
Charlotte: GOP +510
Duval: DEM +3095
Hillsborough: DEM +3562
Leon: DEM +3064
Osceola: DEM +2035
Pinellas: DEM +1196
Polk: DEM +734
Seminole: DEM +152
St. Lucie: DEM +825
Suwannee: DEM +1

No information publicly available for Miami-Dade or Palm Beach until tomorrow morning. Orange should come in later. The total Democratic advantage in Florida today without those three counties is 32,028 before we hear from M-Dade, PB and Orange

Woooow

[ApatheticAustrian]

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https://twitter.com/SteveCollinsSJ/status/795348672460505088

[hopper]

Early voting should be illegal.  What's the point of even having an election day anymore?  Let's just make it election month for lazy Americans.

No, Just start the voting on the weekend of election day.

[Speed of Sound]

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https://twitter.com/SteveCollinsSJ/status/795348672460505088

The GOP belief in democracy in a nut shell. They despise the voting process.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Early voting should be illegal.  What's the point of even having an election day anymore?  Let's just make it election month for lazy Americans.

No, Just start the voting on the weekend of election day.

This, or make Election Day a national holiday.

[ApatheticAustrian]

you could also vote sunday like everyone else?

really? no one?

okay

[QE]

Early vote differentials on the final day of EV in Florida:

Bay: GOP +1153
Bradford: GOP +61
Broward: DEM +19148
Charlotte: GOP +510
Duval: DEM +3095
Hillsborough: DEM +3562
Leon: DEM +3064
Osceola: DEM +2035
Pinellas: DEM +1196
Polk: DEM +734
Seminole: DEM +152
St. Lucie: DEM +825
Suwannee: DEM +1

No information publicly available for Miami-Dade or Palm Beach until tomorrow morning. Orange should come in later. The total Democratic advantage in Florida today without those three counties is 32,028 before we hear from M-Dade, PB and Orange

Woooow

Is it just me or does it seem like Bay County punched above its weight (at least in regards to today's EV)? That seems like a lot of early votes for a panhandle county with just Panama City / Panama City Beach as population centers.

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

Republicans hate democracy and anything that doesn't send America back to 1790. They must all be defeated...Every freaking one.

[OneJ]

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https://twitter.com/SteveCollinsSJ/status/795348672460505088

The GOP belief in democracy in a nut shell. They despise the voting process.

How disgusting. Voter suppression is real folks and look at who's doing it.

[Ozymandias]

daniel a. smith ‏@electionsmith  38m38 minutes ago
Total black turnout in Florida in 2016 will be higher than 2012.  Mark it.
At 777k as of yesterday. Souls to polls today. VBM & ED to come

daniel a. smith ‏@electionsmith  35m35 minutes ago
As a point of reference, in 2012 in Florida, the share of turnout was:
B14%/H12.5%/W68.4%/A1.5%

daniel a. smith ‏@electionsmith  2m2 minutes ago
In Florida in 2012, 44% of whites waited to vote until ED; 50.5% of Hispanics; 35.2% of blacks.