absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[Holmes]

Restrictions in early vote may account for lower African-American turnout in North Carolina, but I think Matthew also played a role as well. I think most of the missing African-American vote will turn out on election day.

Even if that happens, isn't there a risk of polling places being overwhelmed? There is a lot to catch up, so even if Black voters try to vote they might be discouraged by long lines.

Yes, maybe. But for whatever it's worth, election day voting has a lot more polling stations open than on early voting days.

[JimSharp]

2012
- 11 percent Latino
- 77 percent white

2016
-- 13. 5 percent Latino
--77 percent white

Is it not a relatively good news for Reps?

Latino increase vs black/other decrease. Black vote more heavily for Dems than any other group?

Depends where those 2% came from. Has anyone published AA numbers for 2016?
If all 2.5% come from AA (~9% total vote/92% BO in 2012), she probably has +/- 1000 less votes than BO did when all voting in is. (Latino vote for BO was 71/27)
If that 2.5% comes from Asian/other (also ~9%) they split 50/47 for OB/MR, so she gains maybe a few hundred votes? Split is probably in the middle, so she might end up with +/-500 less?

Bigger question is where the White vote is coming from and if it echoes BO #s. In NV it seems like Location, Location, Location. Clark +14 BO, Washoe +4. Rest +MR, but Clark=~70% total vote, Washoe = ~17%. If both those places go HC, even by a small margin in Washoe (Clark has to be fairly strong with the Reid/Union turnout machine.) don't see how/where the DT votes come from.

More women should = +% for HC. More men, even Latino or AA men dampen that advantage.
My uneducated guess is HC by 25,000 in NV at the end of the day. Not BO numbers, but enough to win.

[JimSharp]

Early voting should be illegal.  What's the point of even having an election day anymore?  Let's just make it election month for lazy Americans.

Why not? If we are unable to provide infrastructure where voters don't have to wait hours, even with early voting, what is wrong with a month for voting?

We let candidates campaign for 3.5 years...

[Yank2133]

Early voting should be illegal.  What's the point of even having an election day anymore?  Let's just make it election month for lazy Americans.

Why not? If we are unable to provide infrastructure where voters don't have to wait hours, even with early voting, what is wrong with a month for voting?

We let candidates campaign for 3.5 years...

He is a Republican, they hate democracy.

[Speed of Sound]

@DeFede

#BREAKING Record setting day for early voting in Broward (44,216) and Miami-Dade (53,095) - unprecedented numbers for single day @CBSMiami

[Dr. Arch]

@DeFede

#BREAKING Record setting day for early voting in Broward (44,216) and Miami-Dade (53,095) - unprecedented numbers for single day @CBSMiami

44K IN BROWARD

[tinman64]

Early voting should be illegal.  What's the point of even having an election day anymore?  Let's just make it election month for lazy Americans.

No, Just start the voting on the weekend of election day.

This, or make Election Day a national holiday.

I'd support Election Day as a holiday.

[QE]

@DeFede

#BREAKING Record setting day for early voting in Broward (44,216) and Miami-Dade (53,095) - unprecedented numbers for single day @CBSMiami

44K IN BROWARD

Truly BEAUTIFUL

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

Wow.

Florida D margin muss be >100k votes now, right?

[IceSpear]

@DeFede

#BREAKING Record setting day for early voting in Broward (44,216) and Miami-Dade (53,095) - unprecedented numbers for single day @CBSMiami

[Dr. Arch]

Wow.

Florida D margin muss be >100k votes now, right?

Yep, most likely once Miami-Dade comes in.

[ApatheticAustrian]

schale makes his happy dance again

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/795471884246777856?lang=de

[dspNY]

Orange County (FL) now in.

28,725 voters cast ballots early.

DEM: 12,800
GOP: 7,146
IND: 8,132
Others: 647

Dems add 5,654 to their margin

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

Wow.

Florida D margin muss be >100k votes now, right?

Yep, most likely once Miami-Dade comes in.

Miami-Dade comes in....its Lights Out for Trump.

[ApatheticAustrian]

anyone wants a nightly laugh?



Trump officials believe the Florida county of Miami-Dade can tip the must-win state their way.
http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-11-07/in-trump-s-most-important-county-a-surge-of-hispanic-voters-iv7he39o

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Adam Griffin]

Florida is over. Nevada is over. It's over. Even if you concern-troll over PA, all Clinton needs now is NH and she can afford to lose PA, MI, OH, NC, IA, AZ, ME-2 and NE-2.

[Crumpets]

Using the data from this website, here's a map of Florida early vote turnout compared to 2012 final vote. This doesn't show changes from today - it's basically from this morning.

The most striking thing to me is the relatively low turnout of the Gulf Coast, particularly Pinellas County, which as of this morning was only at 14.6% of total 2012 turnout.

[izixs]

My sis lives in the southern gulf coast area of Florida. She describes it as heavy on old retirees and the like. So probably less interest in standing in early in person voting in general?

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

Soooo....after those EV numbers for Florida....what are Hillary's chances of winning it?

[Ronnie]

Soooo....after those EV numbers for Florida....what are Hillary's chances of winning it?

I wouldn't say Hillary has it in the bag, but it seems like Trump would have to come close to drawing an inside straight to win it.

[ApatheticAustrian]

Soooo....after those EV numbers for Florida....what are Hillary's chances of winning it?

still cause of dixiecrat questions and cannibalizing theories but atm i would say, we got this.

[Speed of Sound]

Soooo....after those EV numbers for Florida....what are Hillary's chances of winning it?

I wanna hear the full breakdown first. Let's see if Schale gives us a last update in the morning. Then we'll know a lot more.

[fldemfunds]

Soooo....after those EV numbers for Florida....what are Hillary's chances of winning it?

It's been over since Wednesday

[Minnesota Mike]

Osceola county Florida: 105,334 early votes so far.  2012 total of 108,927 vote.

[RI]

Using the data from this website, here's a map of Florida early vote turnout compared to 2012 final vote. This doesn't show changes from today - it's basically from this morning.

The most striking thing to me is the relatively low turnout of the Gulf Coast, particularly Pinellas County, which as of this morning was only at 14.6% of total 2012 turnout.

I presume this is only early vote and not vote-by-mail as well?