absentee/early vote thread, part 2
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 08:53:23 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential Election
  absentee/early vote thread, part 2
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 69 70 71 72 73 [74] 75 76 77 78
Author Topic: absentee/early vote thread, part 2  (Read 110440 times)
Person Man
Angry_Weasel
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,681
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1825 on: November 07, 2016, 04:59:47 PM »

Colorado Update


GOP takes the lead this weekend and leads 35.2%-34.8%. At this point in time in 2014, the GOP had a lead of 110,000 ballots. 56.6% of all ballots have been returned

As of Sunday - 2016 v 2014. (2014 in parenthesis)

Democrats  645,020 (446,448)
Republicans  652,380 (558,966)
Independent 527,706 (359,496)

TOTAL 1,852,029 (1,379,562)

Dem turnout up 44%
Rethuglican turnout up 17%
Independent turnout up 47%

Total turnout up 34%


why compare to 2014 and not 2012?
Dems dont turn out for midterms

Because dems kept the governorship in 2014.
Hick is very Hillarylike and Both Ways Bob is very Trumpy. That said, Ds are doing a point better than 2012. If  Trump w8ns here, he is already President Elect when he does
Logged
JerryArkansas
jerryarkansas
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,536
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1826 on: November 07, 2016, 05:00:18 PM »

Colorado Update


GOP takes the lead this weekend and leads 35.2%-34.8%. At this point in time in 2014, the GOP had a lead of 110,000 ballots. 56.6% of all ballots have been returned

As of Sunday - 2016 v 2014. (2014 in parenthesis)

Democrats  645,020 (446,448)
Republicans  652,380 (558,966)
Independent 527,706 (359,496)

TOTAL 1,852,029 (1,379,562)

Dem turnout up 44%
Rethuglican turnout up 17%
Independent turnout up 47%

Total turnout up 34%


why compare to 2014 and not 2012?
Dems dont turn out for midterms

Because dems kept the governorship in 2014.
And it is the only year that had all mail.
Logged
Ozymandias
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 470


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1827 on: November 07, 2016, 05:16:07 PM »


Daniel Berman ‏@DanielBerman2  5m5 minutes ago
Worth noting, party ID in Ohio is determined by which primary you took part in. So GOP identification might be inflated this year by Kasich
Logged
Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,585
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1828 on: November 07, 2016, 05:22:53 PM »


Daniel Berman ‏@DanielBerman2  5m5 minutes ago
Worth noting, party ID in Ohio is determined by which primary you took part in. So GOP identification might be inflated this year by Kasich

Wow. I had no idea. My confidence in Hillary in Ohio just went up dramatically.
Logged
The Other Castro
Castro2020
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,230
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1829 on: November 07, 2016, 05:23:17 PM »

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  24m24 minutes ago
My national and state pre-election turnout forecasts. Nationally, I predict more than 135 million people will vote
Logged
‼realJohnEwards‼
MatteKudasai
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,867
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -4.87

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1830 on: November 07, 2016, 05:24:06 PM »


Daniel Berman ‏@DanielBerman2  5m5 minutes ago
Worth noting, party ID in Ohio is determined by which primary you took part in. So GOP identification might be inflated this year by Kasich

Wow. I had no idea. My confidence in Hillary in Ohio just went up dramatically.
WOAH. Yeah I agree.
Logged
izixs
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,276
United States


Political Matrix
E: -8.31, S: -6.51

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1831 on: November 07, 2016, 05:32:51 PM »


Daniel Berman ‏@DanielBerman2  5m5 minutes ago
Worth noting, party ID in Ohio is determined by which primary you took part in. So GOP identification might be inflated this year by Kasich

Wow. I had no idea. My confidence in Hillary in Ohio just went up dramatically.
WOAH. Yeah I agree.

And heck, even then it doesn't always equate properly. I voted in the Democratic primary but my county has me down as a rep for some reason.
Logged
Mike88
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,223
Portugal


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1832 on: November 07, 2016, 05:59:40 PM »

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  24m24 minutes ago
My national and state pre-election turnout forecasts. Nationally, I predict more than 135 million people will vote

If this is accurate, then this will be the 2nd largest voter turnout in the world, only behind India!! WOW
Logged
‼realJohnEwards‼
MatteKudasai
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,867
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -4.87

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1833 on: November 07, 2016, 06:04:13 PM »

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  24m24 minutes ago
My national and state pre-election turnout forecasts. Nationally, I predict more than 135 million people will vote

If this is accurate, then this will be the 2nd largest voter turnout in the world, only behind India!! WOW
Makes sense, since we're the second largest democracy Tongue

135M, though... jeez.
Logged
HillOfANight
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,459
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1834 on: November 07, 2016, 06:15:40 PM »

Georgia

http://www.myajc.com/news/news/state-regional-govt-politics/a-breakdown-of-georgias-record-number-of-early-vot/ns5HH/

Share of vote
Blacks are down from 34% in 2012 to 28.4% this year.
Whites are up from 59% in 2012 to 61%
Latinos are up 0.8%
Asians are up 0.7%

Counties where the share of early voting by whites dropped the most:
Forsyth (Obama 18 Romney 81) 12%
Whitfield (O27 R72) 5%
Rockdale (O58 R41) 4%
Gwinnett (O45 R55) 3%

Counties where the share of early voting by blacks dropped the most:
The top ones are all rural, but
DeKalb County — where rolls are now 53 percent black — fell 11%
---
No idea what's going on in Dekalb... Obama won 78% to 21%, so maybe excited white hippies for her? Forsyth is also shocking on the opposite side but understandable given demographic change.

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/794566786960199680
Michael has also noted, more Blacks have voted in Georgia, it's just that a surge in white early voters are pushing their share down. If a lot of that is cannibalization, it may not be so bad for her.
Logged
Interlocutor is just not there yet
Interlocutor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,213


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -5.04

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1835 on: November 07, 2016, 06:20:36 PM »

Intesresting quote from The Nooner (CA political newsletter):

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.
Logged
The Other Castro
Castro2020
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,230
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1836 on: November 07, 2016, 06:22:53 PM »

Ryan Struyk ‏@ryanstruyk  4m4 minutes ago
At least 44,896,354 votes have been cast in the presidential election so far, per new @AP data just out.
Logged
Pandaguineapig
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,608
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1837 on: November 07, 2016, 06:26:42 PM »

It's becoming clear why Clinton never invested in Georgia
Logged
The Other Castro
Castro2020
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,230
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1838 on: November 07, 2016, 06:30:02 PM »

Intesresting quote from The Nooner (CA political newsletter):

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Ooooooooooooooooooooooooo
Logged
GeorgiaModerate
Moderators
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,354


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1839 on: November 07, 2016, 06:33:26 PM »

Forsyth is also shocking on the opposite side but understandable given demographic change.

I live in Forsyth County, and there is clearly less enthusiasm for Trump here than for past Republican nominees.  Certainly there are some zealous Trump supporters, but many of the more affluent and highly educated Republicans are put off by Trump.  I know some normally certain R voters who'll leave the top spot blank, a couple voting for McMullin, and at least one voting for Clinton.  In addition, the county has seen demographic change as you mentioned; there are more AA and Latino residents here than ever before.

Not that I expect Forsyth to be close (that would be the biggest election shock ever), but it won't be the blowout of the last two elections.  Romney won 81-18 and McCain 78-20.  I really doubt that Trump will break 70%; perhaps something like 68-27.
Logged
HillOfANight
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,459
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1840 on: November 07, 2016, 06:37:54 PM »

Forsyth is also shocking on the opposite side but understandable given demographic change.

I live in Forsyth County, and there is clearly less enthusiasm for Trump here than for past Republican nominees.  Certainly there are some zealous Trump supporters, but many of the more affluent and highly educated Republicans are put off by Trump.  I know some normally certain R voters who'll leave the top spot blank, a couple voting for McMullin, and at least one voting for Clinton.  In addition, the county has seen demographic change as you mentioned; there are more AA and Latino residents here than ever before.

Not that I expect Forsyth to be close (that would be the biggest election shock ever), but it won't be the blowout of the last two elections.  Romney won 81-18 and McCain 78-20.  I really doubt that Trump will break 70%; perhaps something like 68-27.

68-27 in Forsyth seems like a landslide for Clinton statewide! Is there any evidence that the surge in white voters is just cannibalization, or is North GA really growing their vote to vote Trump, and offset his losses among the educated?

I'm still encouraged by the close race among the live caller polls Smiley
Logged
Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,459
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1841 on: November 07, 2016, 06:38:04 PM »

Intesresting quote from The Nooner (CA political newsletter):

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Ooooooooooooooooooooooooo

the first three are terrific, the last bit of news makes me deeply sad but I can imagine it.
Logged
henster
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,976


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1842 on: November 07, 2016, 06:39:07 PM »

Ds really need to figure out their appeal to white voters they clearly haven't hit the bottom with them. Dems seem stuck at 30-33% in NC which results in narrow losses for them, 20-25% in GA etc.
Logged
GeorgiaModerate
Moderators
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,354


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1843 on: November 07, 2016, 06:44:32 PM »

Forsyth is also shocking on the opposite side but understandable given demographic change.

I live in Forsyth County, and there is clearly less enthusiasm for Trump here than for past Republican nominees.  Certainly there are some zealous Trump supporters, but many of the more affluent and highly educated Republicans are put off by Trump.  I know some normally certain R voters who'll leave the top spot blank, a couple voting for McMullin, and at least one voting for Clinton.  In addition, the county has seen demographic change as you mentioned; there are more AA and Latino residents here than ever before.

Not that I expect Forsyth to be close (that would be the biggest election shock ever), but it won't be the blowout of the last two elections.  Romney won 81-18 and McCain 78-20.  I really doubt that Trump will break 70%; perhaps something like 68-27.

68-27 in Forsyth seems like a landslide for Clinton statewide! Is there any evidence that the surge in white voters is just cannibalization, or is North GA really growing their vote to vote Trump, and offset his losses among the educated?

I'm still encouraged by the close race among the live caller polls Smiley

No, I think it's just that Trump is a very poor fit for Forsyth -- or at least the "New" Forsyth (overflow of technical and professional workers from Alpharetta and its neighbors).  If that 68-27 guess represented a uniform swing, then I agree that Clinton would win the state, but it's not going to happen in the further-out North GA counties.  Trump will probably do as well or even better than Romney there.  A county swing map after the election will be interesting; I'll predict that Forsyth has one of the largest D swings.

Overall, I think the statewide race is going to be close (no more than 3% margin), but Clinton is going to come up short.  It wouldn't shock me to be wrong, though.
Logged
heatcharger
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,238
Sweden


Political Matrix
E: -1.04, S: -0.24

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1844 on: November 07, 2016, 06:45:59 PM »

I want Issa to go down so badly for a lot of reasons but also because he thought he could "pal around" with Trump and get away with it.
Logged
HillOfANight
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,459
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1845 on: November 07, 2016, 06:51:41 PM »

http://www.l2political.com/blog/2016/11/07/early-voting-battleground-states-oh-az-nc-fl-wi-co-ga-nv-new-registrants-nationwide-mi/

I took their non partisan #s, did the math of the lean, and added it to the D/R #.

OH
Democrats: 50.3%, Republicans 49.5%

AZ
Democrats: 44%, Republicans 47%

NC
Democrats:51%  Republicans: 48%

FL
Democrats: 48% Republicans 52% (missing weekend data)

GA– my state
Republican 43.5% // Democrat 32.7% // 23.6% Non-partisan (Likely leaning among non-partisans: 65.3% D // 34.6% R)
Gender 57.6% F // 42.3% M

Net GA Democrats 48% Republicans 52%

Clark County, NV – Early Voting Returned Ballots as of 11/4/16
Republican 33.0% // Democrat 45.9% // 16.0% Non-partisan (Likely leaning among non-partisans: 39.2% D // 60.7% R)

Net Clark County Democrats 57% Republicans 43%
Logged
dspNY
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,802
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1846 on: November 07, 2016, 06:53:07 PM »

Steve Schale says the Dems built a 225K lead in low propensity Florida voters over the early vote period

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/795753793040302080

Logged
BoAtlantis
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 791


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1847 on: November 07, 2016, 07:03:54 PM »

https://twitter.com/MagellanStrat/status/795778298165035008

David Flaherty
‏@MagellanStrat
Magellan Colorado Ballots Returned Report 4pm update http://buff.ly/2fxBpjJ  Rep lead over Dems in ballots returned now 15,289 #copolitics
Logged
The Other Castro
Castro2020
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,230
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1848 on: November 07, 2016, 07:07:32 PM »

https://twitter.com/MagellanStrat/status/795778298165035008

David Flaherty
‏@MagellanStrat
Magellan Colorado Ballots Returned Report 4pm update http://buff.ly/2fxBpjJ  Rep lead over Dems in ballots returned now 15,289 #copolitics

That's 35.0% Republican, 34.3% Democrat and 29.2% unaffiliated.
Logged
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,489
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1849 on: November 07, 2016, 07:08:14 PM »

https://twitter.com/MagellanStrat/status/795778298165035008

David Flaherty
‏@MagellanStrat
Magellan Colorado Ballots Returned Report 4pm update http://buff.ly/2fxBpjJ  Rep lead over Dems in ballots returned now 15,289 #copolitics

That's 35.0% Republican, 34.3% Democrat and 29.2% unaffiliated.

CO still looking good Smiley
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 69 70 71 72 73 [74] 75 76 77 78  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.068 seconds with 14 queries.