absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  24m24 minutes ago
My national and state pre-election turnout forecasts. Nationally, I predict more than 135 million people will vote

If this is accurate, then this will be the 2nd largest voter turnout in the world, only behind India!! WOW

Don't Chinese elections count technically? I mean obviously the local Communist party hack wins with 99% of the vote, but they are still voting in huge numbers.

[Mike88]

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  24m24 minutes ago
My national and state pre-election turnout forecasts. Nationally, I predict more than 135 million people will vote

If this is accurate, then this will be the 2nd largest voter turnout in the world, only behind India!! WOW

Don't Chinese elections count technically? I mean obviously the local Communist party hack wins with 99% of the vote, but they are still voting in huge numbers.

There are no real elections in China. Who chooses the President and Prime Minister is the congress of the Communist Party every 5 years.

[2952-0-0]

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  24m24 minutes ago
My national and state pre-election turnout forecasts. Nationally, I predict more than 135 million people will vote

If this is accurate, then this will be the 2nd largest voter turnout in the world, only behind India!! WOW

Don't Chinese elections count technically? I mean obviously the local Communist party hack wins with 99% of the vote, but they are still voting in huge numbers.

These aren't national elections. The public elect local people's councils, which in turn elects the county level people's councils, which elects the provincial people's council, which finally elects the national people's council.

But, in any case, the government only exists as a surrogate of the Party. There's a reason why the People's Liberation Army is legally the Party's army, not the nation's army.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Intesresting quote from The Nooner (CA political newsletter):

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Ooooooooooooooooooooooooo

the first three are terrific, the last bit of news makes me deeply sad but I can imagine it.

I don't. Why would people seriously buy into a candidate who's made it abundantly clear he's a puppet of the tech industry?

[dspNY]

With Miami-Dade, Lake, Palm Beach and Sarasota Counties not publicly reporting, the Democrats lead in VBM ballots by 882 votes (I did the calculations myself). It's very likely the Dems will expand their early vote lead through mail right before the big day

[The Other Castro]

If 135,000,000 people do vote, what turnout % would that be of eligible voters?

[Mike88]

If 135,000,000 people do vote, what turnout % would that be of eligible voters?

Maybe something between 57-58%.

[JerryArkansas]

If 135,000,000 people do vote, what turnout % would that be of eligible voters?

I know it would be 67% of registered voters.

[The Other Castro]

46,002,316 people have now voted.

[GeorgiaModerate]

If 135,000,000 people do vote, what turnout % would that be of eligible voters?

The U.S. Elections Project, a good source, says that the Voting Eligible Population (VEP) is 231,556,622 (http://www.electproject.org/2016g).  So 135 million would be a bit over 58%.

[RI]

Wisconsin vote as % of 2012:


Ohio vote as % of 2012:

[Crumpets]

Wisconsin looks pretty good. Can't find too much either way from the Ohio map.

[Mike88]

Not about early vote, but...

Massive crowd in Independence Hall.



https://twitter.com/gdebenedetti/status/795792038247727104

[Maxwell]

If 135,000,000 people do vote, what turnout % would that be of eligible voters?

The U.S. Elections Project, a good source, says that the Voting Eligible Population (VEP) is 231,556,622 (http://www.electproject.org/2016g).  So 135 million would be a bit over 58%.

That would be higher than 2008 - Highly improbable, but not impossible.

[Pandaguineapig]

Wisconsin vote as % of 2012:


Ohio vote as % of 2012:

Wisconsin is solid for Clinton, but ohio looks great for trump

[The Other Castro]

[win win]

http://www.l2political.com/blog/2016/11/07/early-voting-battleground-states-oh-az-nc-fl-wi-co-ga-nv-new-registrants-nationwide-mi/

I took their non partisan #s, did the math of the lean, and added it to the D/R #.

OH
Democrats: 50.3%, Republicans 49.5%

AZ
Democrats: 44%, Republicans 47%

NC
Democrats:51%  Republicans: 48%

FL
Democrats: 48% Republicans 52% (missing weekend data)

GA– my state
Republican 43.5% // Democrat 32.7% // 23.6% Non-partisan (Likely leaning among non-partisans: 65.3% D // 34.6% R)
Gender 57.6% F // 42.3% M

Net GA Democrats 48% Republicans 52%

Clark County, NV – Early Voting Returned Ballots as of 11/4/16
Republican 33.0% // Democrat 45.9% // 16.0% Non-partisan (Likely leaning among non-partisans: 39.2% D // 60.7% R)

Net Clark County Democrats 57% Republicans 43%

Where did you get those Nevada nonpartisan numbers? Are they for realz?

[psychprofessor]

Wisconsin vote as % of 2012:


Ohio vote as % of 2012:

Wisconsin is solid for Clinton, but ohio looks great for trump

Considering Hillary is dominating the early vote +9 in Ohio from more traditional Repub counties, that has to be a warning sign to the Republicans.

[HillOfANight]

Ds really need to figure out their appeal to white voters they clearly haven't hit the bottom with them. Dems seem stuck at 30-33% in NC which results in narrow losses for them, 20-25% in GA etc.

The latest polls seem to have her improving...
2008 Georgia exit polls had it Obama 23%, McCain 76% (R+53%)
Landmark's final 2014 poll had Nunn at 22%, Perdue at 74%, a margin of 52%.

Landmark's final 2016 poll has Clinton at 26%, Trump at 68%, a margin of 42%.
Marist/NBC's recent poll has Clinton at 27% Trump at 65%, a 38% margin.
Quinnipiac's recent poll has her 23-65, 42%.

At least from Landmark/Marist, she's doing better with whites a little, and Johnson is taking Trump's support. Whether that will hold up on election day though...

[The Other Castro]

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  3m3 minutes ago
Well, Clinton might have pulled off Ohio. #Earlyvote change from 2012
Cuyahoga +1,052 (+0.4%)
Franklin +22,522 (+10.2%)

[Antonio the Sixth]

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  3m3 minutes ago
Well, Clinton might have pulled off Ohio. #Earlyvote change from 2012
Cuyahoga +1,052 (+0.4%)
Franklin +22,522 (+10.2%)

How does it compare in % terms?

[JerryArkansas]

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  3m3 minutes ago
Well, Clinton might have pulled off Ohio. #Earlyvote change from 2012
Cuyahoga +1,052 (+0.4%)
Franklin +22,522 (+10.2%)

How does it compare in % terms?

What do you mean, that is the change from 2012 final total for absentee and early voting.

[Pandaguineapig]

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  3m3 minutes ago
Well, Clinton might have pulled off Ohio. #Earlyvote change from 2012
Cuyahoga +1,052 (+0.4%)
Franklin +22,522 (+10.2%)

How does it compare in % terms?

Also he fails to mention them as comparison to the state as a whole or using party registration returns. This guy is predicting a Clinton win in Iowa, a state they have already given up on

[Antonio the Sixth]

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  3m3 minutes ago
Well, Clinton might have pulled off Ohio. #Earlyvote change from 2012
Cuyahoga +1,052 (+0.4%)
Franklin +22,522 (+10.2%)

How does it compare in % terms?

What do you mean, that is the change from 2012 final total for absentee and early voting.

Sorry, I meant how does the % of these counties EV over the total Ohio EV compare to that same number in 2012.

[Ozymandias]

Here's a summary of all the polling data of early voters in Florida:

FLORIDA polling of early voting summary

Presented from most-to-least percent of Early Voters (EV), with absolute number of EV (which can be used as a proxy for MOE) in parentheses:

Opinion Savvy: 71% (607 EV)-- Clinton +8

Quinnipiac: 65% (575 EV)-- Clinton +6 (48-42)

YouGov: 63% (748 EV)-- Clinton +10 (51-41)

Opinion Savvy: 55% (333 EV)-- Clinton +9 (53-44)

Emerson: 51% (257 EV)-- Clinton +15 (57-42)

TargetSmart: 43% (311 EV)-- Clinton +18 (55-37)

Quinnipiac: 42% (263 EV)-- Clinton +6 (48-42)

NBC: 36% (356 EV)-- Clinton +17 (54-37)

FAU: 26% (226 EV)-- Clinton +12 (54-41)

Based on the most recent polling, and how well the Dems did in early voting this past weekend, I think it's safe to say that Clinton is heading into election day with almost a 10-point lead among the ~76% of the population that has now voted.