absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[The Other Castro]

At least 29,202,565 votes have been cast as of this morning. Over 63% of the total 2012 early vote.

[The Other Castro]

Ye old bait-and-switch post by Michael McDonald: all is well in CO so far.

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Taking a page from the Ralston playbook I see.

[The Other Castro]

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  16s16 seconds ago
TX #earlyvote (mail & in-person) update 11/1: 3.3 Million voted, +36.2% from 2012. Was +22.0% over same single 2012 y'day

[The Other Castro]

Latino Decisions ‏@LatinoDecisions
LD statistical model projecting voter turnout by Prof. @justinhgross forecasts 13.1-14.7 million Latino votes cast, up from 11.2M in 2012

[The Other Castro]

Idk how much the overall popular voting total is supposed to rise, but if it stayed the same total as 2012 (hypothetically), Latino vote share would rise from 8.7% to a range between 10.1%-11.4%.

[The Other Castro]

Whoa, total Early Vote now at 31,191,741. 67.5% of the 2012 early vote, 24.2% of the total 2012 vote.

[The Other Castro]

Mark Murray and Dave Wasserman discuss the possibility of Election Day EV cannibalization by Republicans in Florida:

Dave Wasserman‏ @Redistrict
Top FL early vote increases vs. '12 *totals:*
1. Lee (R) +42%
2. Manatee (R) +40%
3. Sumter (R) +22%
4. Baker (R) +21%
5. Hernando (R) +15%

Dave Wasserman ‏@Redistrict
In Sumter, FL (The Villages), early ballots cast so far are already at 88% of the *entire* number of votes cast there in 2012 (67% Romney).

Dave Wasserman ‏@Redistrict
Some of that is pop growth. But for comparison, FL's statewide early ballots at 52% of '12 total votes cast. Miami-Dade at 57%, Leon 39%.

Mark Murray‏ @mmurraypolitics Mark Murray Retweeted Dave Wasserman
With those kinds of increases from places like The Villages (Sumter), how much GOP vote will be left on Elex Day?

[The Other Castro]

Also, before a mod comes in and says it, can we please keep discussion here to early vote updates and analysis? Take the long arguments elsewhere.

[The Other Castro]

Was early voting made easier in MA.  They are now at 262% of 2012 early vote with two days to go.

Now if only there was something exciting going on in MA...

[The Other Castro]

538 has her 0.2 up in polls-only. Hardly a big advantage, black turnout is down as well.

538 doesn't take into account early voting.

[The Other Castro]

Steve Schale ‏@steveschale  33s33 seconds ago Florida, USA
Dems expand EV vote in bellwether Hillsborough from 17.2k to 18.6k today. Best day in a while.

[The Other Castro]

Steve Schale ‏@steveschale  33s33 seconds ago Florida, USA
Dems expand EV vote in bellwether Hillsborough from 17.2k to 18.6k today. Best day in a while.

Steve Schale ‏@steveschale  16m16 minutes ago Tallahassee, FL
Total Broward in-person early:

16.7k Dem
8k NPA
6.3k GOP

[The Other Castro]

Someone made this helpful visual tool that updates based on new information from electproject.org:

https://public.tableau.com/profile/publish/usevmap/Dashboard1#!/publish-confirm

[The Other Castro]

Steve Schale ‏@steveschale  10s10 seconds ago
I see you Orange County!
19,682 in-person early votes (biggest day by 2500)
Dems +3300, plus another 5500 NPA voters #wow

[The Other Castro]

Miami-Dade came in massive

46,255 total
34,348 in person

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/794002733829341184

the mook machine

He's irresistible.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rXd8ZrP8H6Y

[The Other Castro]

Schale is spending his night posting .gifs of Joe Biden after days of shouting about voting in all caps. He likes tonight a whole lot.

And he's been trying to tamp down expectations recently to get people to keep voting, so that says something.

[The Other Castro]

Florida is a much bigger state than Nevada, so it can't be as accurately gauged by a Jon Ralston-type figure. There's only one Jon Ralston.

[The Other Castro]

Taniel ‏@Taniel
Af-Am turnout picking up a bit in NC. Higher share of daily vote, & now -11% (twas -17% Friday). Via @BowTiePolitics

http://www.oldnorthstatepolitics.com/2016/11/north-carolina-absentee-ballots-near-22.html?m=1

[The Other Castro]

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  2m2 minutes ago
NC #earlyvote gender comparision to 2012:
Woman 1,298,386 voted; +143,020 (+12.4%) vs. 2012
Men 995,645 voted; +96,499 (+10.7%)

[The Other Castro]

In response to the CO GOP surge:

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  16m16 minutes ago
Colorado #earlyvote update. Reps finally make a move with 9,006 more returns y'day. Dem lead now +1.0, was +1.9 y'day

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  12m12 minutes ago
If 2014 is a guide (first election under new law)
- Reps need about +7 points to be competitive
- Dems going to pick up this weekend

[The Other Castro]

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  10m10 minutes ago
At least 34 Million people have voted in the 2016 election at 11/3 midday

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  5m5 minutes ago
TX #earlyvote update 11/2: 3,655,123 voted, +36.4% of 2012. Picked up pace a little y'day relative to 2012. Was +32.2% 2 days ago

Jeremy Bird ‏@jeremybird  3m3 minutes ago
FL: Yesterday was largest turnout of black voters so far (55k);
585K AA voters have cast votes so far, up 28% compared to same point in '12

[The Other Castro]

Ralston's numbers for why Trump cannot win Nevada:

[The Other Castro]

AZ early voting age groups broken down by party:

[The Other Castro]

Ralston is doing a Facebook live on NV early voting in 10 minutes: https://www.facebook.com/KTNVLasVegas/

[The Other Castro]

Ralston answered my question! If you comment he'll answer it.