absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[PresidentTRUMP]

wow

Republican surge in Nevada. Early Voting 2nd week (11/2 9AM)
http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4555
In Person: DEM 39.89%  REP 37.79% Other 22.32%

Now Nevada=Likely TRUMP

Statespoll, Thank you for your contributions!! All we ever see is Liberals posting on this forum and posting whatever someone is stating in their favor. They tell you to go away because your posting facts they dont like, I LOVE IT. Please keep me up to date with these EV states! I appreciate your efforts!

[PresidentTRUMP]

Even Latino Decisions shows a 40-ish point margin for Clinton. What is the basis for your claim?

http://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2016/10/clinton-dominating-trump-among-florida-hispanics-in-new-poll-106082

This.

You as well Alomas, thanks for the updates, nice to see both sides of the picture on here......once in a while....thanks for the link! Better and closer than i thought!

Reading these posts online here of all liberals you would think trump was down with hispanics by 40-50% in FLorida, not the case obviously.

[PresidentTRUMP]

How is this news?

People actually think AA will come out and vote 95-96% for HRC and with HUGE turnout like they did for Obama? Anyone who ever thought that would be the case is crazy.

[PresidentTRUMP]

lol....come on now already....

Obama a SITTING president lost NC where the AA community came out in droves to vote for him still lost the state by close to 100,000 votes to Mitt Romney LOL. But yes HRC is going to flip a state Obama wasn't able too last cycle, literally comical.

AA accounted for 1,047,758 of the votes in NC, if Romney got 5% of that voting group he got 52,388 of the over 1,000,000 votes casted by AA and STILL lost the state 50% to 48%. Will AA turn out another 1MM plus vote tally in the state? I say NO CHANCE.

[PresidentTRUMP]

lol....come on now already....

Obama a SITTING president lost NC where the AA community came out in droves to vote for him still lost the state by close to 100,000 votes to Mitt Romney LOL. But yes HRC is going to flip a state Obama wasn't able too last cycle, literally comical.

The nc shift has little to do with african americans but is connected to the educated white swing and swing among white females

Hmmm Trump is doing MUCH MUCH better than Romney with high school, some college or less white voters but polls showing him doing worse among college educated whites. It is assumed by most people there is a hidden Trump vote not showing in the polls because people don't want to admit their voting for him. HMMM now i wonder what voters that might just likely be....seems pretty OBVIOUS to me which group those hidden Trump supporters are from but we will see, heck i know many Trump voters who won't admit in public or to anyone besides family they are supporting him and guess what category they all fall into?

[PresidentTRUMP]

"hidden trump supporters"

lol k

laugh all you want but like i said i know many college educated white voters like myself who wont admit in public they support him. On an anonymous board i will but if im asked at work by anyone or in a public setting i say im fed up with the whole system and both parties and will vote for the independent candidate.

The media has categorized Trump supporters as racists, bigots, hate woman ect. college educated white voters know this, we read and watch the news and that's why that particular group will never admit to anyone they are backing Trump because they want change because they know the media has said you are a racist if you support him.

[PresidentTRUMP]

Did anyone think that it wouldn't?

Shocks me as well that this actually surprises people, I thought this was obvious. Guess not when your on the atlas board.

[PresidentTRUMP]

Also, interesting to note when Obama carried NC in 2008 after we were going through the worst recession in a long time and he was the FIRST AA candidate to be running from a major party in the general election:
                        Obama              McCain
Popular vote   2,142,651   2,128,474
Percentage    49.70%             49.38%

He carried the state by a mere 14,177 votes.

But yes HRC will outperform Obama and carry the state, really?

[PresidentTRUMP]

Quinnipiac early voting poll

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LOL if you actually believe those figures. Is Clinton up in EV 58-35 percent in Texas as well?

[PresidentTRUMP]

Can the blue avatars stop with the abuse please. Its fine to spin the polls and look for evidence your candidate is winning, but can you do it without the abuse and sarcasm please, not necessary.

The fact is nobody knows for sure what the EV totals look like. Yeah we have some raw data thats come in but nobody really knows whats true and whats not true about that data. Its all pure speculation at this point, only 6 days away from the election. Will be here before you know it.

[PresidentTRUMP]

WOWzer, please note almost all polls show clinton up in Virginia but Trump seems to be closing the gap BIG Time. Tim Kaine really helping the ticket lol.

For what its worth, just out:

Virginia Hampton-University/CPP Poll

Trump - 44% (+3%)
Clinton - 41%

A 15 point shift in this poll from a month ago, if Virginia starts heading toward a battle ground state, D's can completely forget NC and start worrying about that state, if Trump carries is he will be President.

[PresidentTRUMP]

Sure, will do from now on, just wanted to post it as i figured Virginia was a complete lost casue especially with Tim Kaine being the senator and former governor of the State, very promising it might actually be in play.

[PresidentTRUMP]

What i love about the Media is all the talk about Arizona and GA being in play and even serious talk about Texas. Yet, if it was the other way around and this VA poll came out they would be polling the state every day, haven't seen many polls either on Minn & Michigan, wonder why? If these were normally red states they would be polling these states every few days. Blast away...

[PresidentTRUMP]

Here's the current state-by-state breakdown of the "Advance" (= Absentee/Mail-in + Early In-Person) vote.

The election is already more than half over in AZ, NV, & FL-- and probably CO & NC too by the end of the day...

State 2016 Advance Vote / 2012 Total Vote = Percentage
USA   31,191,741   /   128,925,332   =   24.19%
AZ   1,370,746   /   2,298,802   =   59.63%
TN   1,403,731   /   2,458,577   =   57.10%
NV   561,813   /   1,014,918   =   55.36%
FL   4,466,624   /   8,474,134   =   52.71%
CO   1,217,166   /   2,569,516   =   47.37%
NC   2,098,045   /   4,493,301   =   46.69%
OR   809,984   /   1,775,995   =   45.61%
MT   220,316   /   483,932   =   45.53%
GA   1,708,490   /   3,897,839   =   43.83%
TX   3,311,159   /   7,991,197   =   41.44%
WA   1,235,614   /   3,125,516   =   39.53%
NM   294,537   /   783,758   =   37.58%
AR   342,683   /   1,069,468   =   32.04%
IA   472,085   /   1,574,738   =   29.98%
UT   284,841   /   1,017,401   =   28.00%
MD   703,399   /   2,697,018   =   26.08%
LA   515,181   /   1,994,065   =   25.84%
CA   3,329,133   /   13,015,298   =   25.58%
ID   144,872   /   652,274   =   22.21%
MA   700,000   /   3,161,215   =   22.14%
ME   155,554   /   711,053   =   21.88%
HI   91,400   /   434,539   =   21.03%
KS   242,043   /   1,158,833   =   20.89%
ND   65,466   /   321,072   =   20.39%
SD   73,446   /   363,815   =   20.19%
DC   57,865   /   292,992   =   19.75%
OH   1,054,912   /   5,580,715   =   18.90%
NE   148,634   /   790,662   =   18.80%
WI   567,663   /   3,063,064   =   18.53%
MI   854,921   /   4,722,988   =   18.10%
IN   472,707   /   2,623,541   =   18.02%
WV   116,561   /   670,438   =   17.39%
WY   40,332   /   247,026   =   16.33%
VT   44,968   /   297,247   =   15.13%
SC   267,007   /   1,964,118   =   13.59%
IL   708,976   /   5,241,179   =   13.53%
AK   36,229   /   297,625   =   12.17%
VA   341,480   /   3,847,243   =   8.88%
MN   250,123   /   2,925,920   =   8.55%
OK   63,981   /   1,334,872   =   4.79%
NJ   172,013   /   3,638,499   =   4.73%
KY   73,335   /   1,796,832   =   4.08%
DE   16,352   /   413,890   =   3.95%
RI   14,285   /   444,668   =   3.21%
MO   55,503   /   2,757,323   =   2.01%
MS   13,167   /   1,285,584   =   1.02%
AL   2,399   /   2,070,327   =   0.12%
CT   0   /   1,558,132   =   0.00%
NH   0   /   708,399   =   0.00%
NY   0   /   7,071,734   =   0.00%
PA   0   /   5,742,040   =   0.00%

so about 70% give or take of the total votes casted for the election will be on election day. LOVE how PA doesn't have EV. Also love to see that EV in MI & WI will be only 25-30% of the voting on election day as well as VA & MN currently having under 10% of EV of the total vote in 2012.

[PresidentTRUMP]

so about 70% give or take of the total votes casted for the election will be on election day.

No, the pace is well ahead of 2012, when the early vote was 36% of the total.

I think at least 40% of the total vote will be cast before election day,  and it might even be closer to 50% than 40%.

There expecting enormous turnout this election so the total votes casted will be much higher than 2012.

If Trump is ahead or withing striking distance in most of these battle ground states come election day, I like our chances a lot. One thing i know for sure is Trump supporters are 1000% showing up to vote. Hillary supporters well, some of them may just have something better to do that day and I am not convinced people will be energized to show up on election day and wait hours in line to cast a vote for her. Trump supporters would wait 10 hours in line to vote for him on election day. Kind of like Obama voters in 2012, they were showing up and voting no matter how long it took to actually get to the ballot.

[PresidentTRUMP]

so about 70% give or take of the total votes casted for the election will be on election day.

No, the pace is well ahead of 2012, when the early vote was 36% of the total.

I think at least 40% of the total vote will be cast before election day,  and it might even be closer to 50% than 40%.

There expecting enormous turnout this election so the total votes casted will be much higher than 2012.

If Trump is ahead or withing striking distance in most of these battle ground states come election day, I like our chances a lot. One thing i know for sure is Trump supporters are 1000% showing up to vote. Hillary supporters well, some of them may just have something better to do that day and I am not convinced people will be energized to show up on election day and wait hours in line to cast a vote for her. Trump supporters would wait 10 hours in line to vote for him on election day. Kind of like Obama voters in 2012, they were showing up and voting no matter how long it took to actually get to the ballot.

I'm sure there are some very energised Trump voters, I think you have to be energised to be a Trump voter

Although if they are 1000% turning out to vote, why would they not be early-voting at the same rate as Clinton voters?

and please don't underestimate the appeal for women to vote for the first woman president

LOL...AA rightfully so voted and turned out in historic proportions for President Obama the first AA president. Based on numerous things in our history as a County. I even admit if i were AA and President Obama was running I would almost certainly casted my vote for him. Politically speaking he stands for almost everything I don't stand for but it would have meant more to me than political views. Comparing how Women will vote to AA when Obama ran is flawed in so many different ways.

Not to mention this is Hillary Clinton running as the first female president. There might actually be something to your statement if it was a woman without half the baggage she has. If Elizabeth Warren was at the top of the ticket or Kristen Gillibrand, your statement would probably hold a lot of weight, but it holds very LITTLE weight since it happens to be Hillary Clinton (arguably the most corrupt individual to ever seek the highest office in the world).

If I am right and Trump does win, everyone pretty much knows there will be a woman president most likely in the next few cycles, who isn't half as corrupt as Ms. Clinton and that said person will probably make a wonderful president.

[PresidentTRUMP]

WOWzer, please note almost all polls show clinton up in Virginia but Trump seems to be closing the gap BIG Time. Tim Kaine really helping the ticket lol.

For what its worth, just out:

Virginia Hampton-University/CPP Poll

Trump - 44% (+3%)
Clinton - 41%

A 15 point shift in this poll from a month ago, if Virginia starts heading toward a battle ground state, D's can completely forget NC and start worrying about that state, if Trump carries is he will be President.

$500 bucks, 3-1 odds for you, Trump loses VA. Here and now.

Put up or shut up.

Geez, relax and take a breath. Hillary will almost certainly win Virginia, I was just posting a positive poll from the state for Trump supporters, again relax.

[PresidentTRUMP]

Does anyone have 2016 vs. 2012 EV totals for Florida with party breakdowns included as well? EV in the state is just about over and wondering how they compare? Thanks

[PresidentTRUMP]

http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/03/politics/early-voting-battleground-states/index.html

Arizona
- Registered Republicans are ahead right now by 5.5%. But at this point four years ago, the GOP had a 10% advantage over Democrats.
- But the good news for Republicans here is that it appears they're gaining ground. One week ago, their lead over Democrats was only about 11,500. Today that lead is more than 71,000.

Colorado
- The Democratic lead one week ago was about 5.6%. It stands at 1.5% today.

Florida
- GOP has a 16K lead (trailed by 73K in 2008)
- Latinos had the largest spike in terms of raw votes, boosting their turnout by 129% from 2008. - White voters increased their turnout by 55%.
- And even though African-American turnout is up by 24% that is clearly a slower growth rate than the other racial groups, and their share of the electorate dropped from 2008.

Iowa
- Right now, about 41,000 more Democrats than Republicans have voted in the Hawkeye State. But at this point four years ago, they had an edge of more than 60,000 votes.

Nevada
- Dems ahead 29K, larger than 1 week ago (4 years ago, they were ahead 38K)

North Carolina
- Right now, registered Democrats are ahead by about 243,000 votes statewide. At this point in 2012, the Democratic lead was more than 307,000 votes.
- Blacks are 28% in 2012 to about 23% today.

Ohio
- Registered Republicans expanded their lead this week in Ohio. They're now ahead of Democrats by almost 66,000 votes, or about 5 points. They were only up by 2.5 points one week ago.

Well if this is accurate from the Clinton News Network things look great for Trump. Can the Colorado numbers actually be right??? Shes up 1.5% right now, really? All those states look good but i would prefer to see comparisons to 2012 than 2008 when Obama won by HUGE HUGE numbers.

Actually if were comparing it to 2008 and not 2012 the numbers are actually even that much better for Trump!! Thanks for the re-cap.

[PresidentTRUMP]

CNN is wildly incompetent and always searching for a neutral narrative. PPP are partisans, but they're good at what they do and aren't actively tipping the scales.

Reporting numbers =  always searching for a neutral narrative? OK, all right!

But yeah, they are incompetent.

on a conference call with nothing to say so doing back of envelope calcs.

NV. (according to sos as of yesterday's numbers)
Total voted:
Clark (Vegas): 199k Dems 139k Rep 94k ind
NV totas: 262k Dems 222k Rep 131 ind

Do you know how many UPA voted early in 2012? UPA should be Hillary friendly.

Obviously, Indie/UNA hold the key
Past 4 elections indies have gone (according to CNN exit):
2012: 43% Dem 50% Rep (BO v MR)
2008: 54% Dem  41% Rep (BO v JM)
2004: 54% Dem  42% Rep (JK v GWB)

Looks to me like, as it stands, Rep have to pick up a lot of votes or Ind/UNA have to break almost 60/40 to Trump. 94k Total ind/UNA have voted in Clark or about 72%. So is it plausible in any world that indie/UNAs from Vegas go for Trump 56/44 (you have to pull about 5 or 6 %, maybe higher for GJ and others, but those are rough numbers.) That's my calcs if the vote were counted EOD yesterday.
(Please, someone check my math, I'm doing this fast.)

Intresting.

Though self-reported Indie from CNN is not the same as UNA.
We'll probably also see more uneducated white Dems voting for Trump and educated white Reps voting for Hillary. Question is which share will be bigger

With everything that has happened over the last week with the FBI i think Hillary will take a blow in that category, many educated R's who were leaning Hillary will probably now hold their nose and go Trump due to Hillary being under FBI investigation come election day still.

[PresidentTRUMP]

http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/03/politics/early-voting-battleground-states/index.html

Arizona
- Registered Republicans are ahead right now by 5.5%. But at this point four years ago, the GOP had a 10% advantage over Democrats.
- But the good news for Republicans here is that it appears they're gaining ground. One week ago, their lead over Democrats was only about 11,500. Today that lead is more than 71,000.

Colorado
- The Democratic lead one week ago was about 5.6%. It stands at 1.5% today.

Florida
- GOP has a 16K lead (trailed by 73K in 2008)
- Latinos had the largest spike in terms of raw votes, boosting their turnout by 129% from 2008. - White voters increased their turnout by 55%.
- And even though African-American turnout is up by 24% that is clearly a slower growth rate than the other racial groups, and their share of the electorate dropped from 2008.

Iowa
- Right now, about 41,000 more Democrats than Republicans have voted in the Hawkeye State. But at this point four years ago, they had an edge of more than 60,000 votes.

Nevada
- Dems ahead 29K, larger than 1 week ago (4 years ago, they were ahead 38K)

North Carolina
- Right now, registered Democrats are ahead by about 243,000 votes statewide. At this point in 2012, the Democratic lead was more than 307,000 votes.
- Blacks are 28% in 2012 to about 23% today.

Ohio
- Registered Republicans expanded their lead this week in Ohio. They're now ahead of Democrats by almost 66,000 votes, or about 5 points. They were only up by 2.5 points one week ago.

Well if this is accurate from the Clinton News Network things look great for Trump. Can the Colorado numbers actually be right??? Shes up 1.5% right now, really? All those states look good but i would prefer to see comparisons to 2012 than 2008 when Obama won by HUGE HUGE numbers.

Actually if were comparing it to 2008 and not 2012 the numbers are actually even that much better for Trump!! Thanks for the re-cap.

Sorry to burst your bubble, but Obama actually lost the EV by 2% in 2012 in CO. NV looks exceptionally well for HRC, and FL and NC have improved immensely over the last couple of days. Thing are looking quite grim for Trump.

Well we must be looking at two completely different things than. I Bolded all of the points that have me very very optimistic after reading them.

[PresidentTRUMP]

i agree that the reg data is confusing.

but while i see IA/OH/AZ safe in camp trump...

i think FL/NC are a toss-up at best

and CO/NV are gone for trump.

too much college-education or EV/minority-power.

IA & OH I wouldnt put safe but lean R.

FL & NC are COMPLETE toss ups.

as for Nevada being over for trump, the three latest polls have trump +6, +2 and even, NV is FAR from a lost cause: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nv/nevada_trump_vs_clinton-5891.html

Colorado is FAR from a lost cause as well last four polls have Clinton +3, +1, +3 and the latest one tied: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/co/colorado_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson-5973.html

Trumps paths to 270 are opening up IF he carries FL and NC. I thought he would have 1 maybe 2 paths 2-3 weeks ago, now i see several if he takes those two states.

[PresidentTRUMP]

So with NV gone for Trump, that means he has to win either PA, MI, WI, VA, or CO. No wonder he is spending his time in Wisconsin now.

LOL at people saying NV is gone, guess we will see in three days.

[PresidentTRUMP]

i agree that the reg data is confusing.

but while i see IA/OH/AZ safe in camp trump...

i think FL/NC are a toss-up at best

and CO/NV are gone for trump.

too much college-education or EV/minority-power.

Wouldnt call it safe trump but IA is lean trump ohio will be very close reverse of florida with a small lean r, Arizona i think will go Trump.

Disagree respectively, i think it is a complete toss up state and as usual COULD decide the election.

IF and a BIG IF, Trump carries both FL and NC and i strongly believe he will win.

[PresidentTRUMP]

if the polls are worth anything, the urban cities of WI are delivering ......

thanks EV,.....MI/PA are much more questionable.

Agreed, i don't see trump winning WI at all. He has a much much better chance of grabbing one of MI and PA.

The moment Ryan cancelled his appearance with Trump in WI he officially lost the state IMO.

If WI didn't flip with Ryan on the ticket as VP it isn't flipping this year either, I feel very confident that state will be blue and clinton will win it by ATLEAST 4 points, probably closer to 5 or 6.