absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[Ebsy]

wow

Republican surge in Nevada. Early Voting 2nd week (11/2 9AM)
http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4555
In Person: DEM 39.89%  REP 37.79% Other 22.32%

Now Nevada=Likely TRUMP

Go away troll.

[Ebsy]

Statespoll, of course, is only publishing the week 2 numbers, which are solely the Democrats' worst 2 days of every cycle, and ignoring the week one numbers, where Democrats won the early vote by 9 points. Intellectually dishonest!

[Ebsy]

lol....come on now already....

Obama a SITTING president lost NC where the AA community came out in droves to vote for him still lost the state by close to 100,000 votes to Mitt Romney LOL. But yes HRC is going to flip a state Obama wasn't able too last cycle, literally comical.

Clinton is not dependent on record turnout from African Americans to win North Carolina.

[Ebsy]

GG, good luck next election.

[Ebsy]

You cherrypick that ridiculous SUSA poll and can't even support your conclusion. Incredible!

[Ebsy]

The early vote numbers in North Carolina have been insane the last day or two. So much for African Americans not voting.

[Ebsy]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

If they get to 13% then you pretty much put FL in her column.

Reports of the demise of the black vote this election were heavily exaggerated.

[Ebsy]

On Upshot's NC vote tracker, they have over half the total vote as in, and Hillary winning already-submitted votes by 10. That means Trump has to win remaining votes by at least 10 to carry the state. Not to mention 4 more days of early voting at current support numbers (roughly 50/50, if we're being conservative). That means Trump would have to win the election day vote pretty overwhelmingly unless things shift his way in the state right now. So, even if that Trump +7 poll was accurate and that's how people vote for the remainder of the election, he'd still lose the state overall.

Somebody please double-check my math, because it sounds a bit Karl Rovey when I read it back to myself.

It is based on a single Sienna/Upshot poll with Clinton +7. If the poll was right and the race has not changed since    OCT. 20-23, Trump is done.

I believe that Sienna is recontacting the poll's respondents to measure whether they have voted early or not and who they voted for, and is then making a projection for the rest of the state.

[Ebsy]

it's simple.

if cohn's model is even in the same universe than reality, than NC is clinton's and if she wins NC, she also wins high-educated CO/VA/NH.

That model no longer applies.

Pubs are coming home, including the educated Pubs. They are declaring themselves "undecided" in most recent polls, but expect that "undecided" is a codeword for shy Trump.

Shy Trump voters are not a thing.

[Ebsy]

Keating has Clinton +4 among EV in Colorado with an even party registration in their poll.

[Ebsy]

i think the daily comments of cohn regarding this matter have been VERY confusing.

Cohn tried to have it both ways a lot of the time.

[Ebsy]

Rather, I think his point is that 70% of all people will vote early, so distinguishing between early voters only and all voters won't actually be a big difference.

Polls say it will.

[Ebsy]

This is the same pattern from 2012... guess who got it right?

Latino Decisions!

[Ebsy]

Also, I'd rather be the person worrying about people leaving lines during early voting because so many supporters are turning out rather than a person worrying about smooth sailing because no one is voting at all.

[Ebsy]

We are currently seeing unprecedented levels of early voting in Nevada tonight. Wow!

Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports  3m3 minutes ago
"We will not turn people away," Election Dept spox tells me, saying voting places will stay open as long as it takes.
cc: Adelson News

[Ebsy]

Crazy.

[Ebsy]

Game changer right there.

[Ebsy]

Seriously? is literally covered in dogsweat.

[Ebsy]

The election day vote in Colorado (so much as it exists) is heavily Democratic.

[Ebsy]

Seriously? is also counting his eggs before the hatch, since early voting is ongoing in Clark County and the final percentage for week 2 of the early vote is likely to shift with the inclusion of Friday's numbers.

[Ebsy]

Aren't the CO numbers a bit odd to you as well ?

Only 1.66 million ballots have been returned so far and there are only Monday and Tuesday left to return ballots.

Final turnout in 2012 was 2.6 million.

It's pretty unlikely that there are 300K returned on Monday and Tuesday, when it was 100-150K each day now.

That suggests turnout will be much lower in CO this year, somwhere between 2-2.5 million votes (unless there's a surge of election day voters).

Mail-ins surge in the final days. Anecdotally, people here are very lazy.

Tender is just being obtuse.

[Ebsy]

57k in Clark County as of 10 pm.

[Ebsy]

Democrats retook the lead in Florida to the tune of 8k votes out of 5.7 million today.

[Ebsy]

Republicans up 17 among whites! And bear in mind CNN is by no means pro-Trump.

That's a terrible number for Florida (the state they were referring to. Romney won Florida whites by 24

Yeah, that's, um, a disaster for Republicans. Points towards a high single digit Clinton win in the state.

[Ebsy]

This, is, um, terribly flawed analysis. Basically sets up a straw man of Ralston's argument, and proceeds to use terrible assumptions to defeat it.