absentee/early vote thread, part 2

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Clinton may win Duval County. That's great. This is in line with Quinnipiac and SurveyMonkey polls.

If Clinton wins Duval she will most assuredly win the state. Schale seemed to think if EV continues on the current trajectory, Florida should be called pretty early on Tuesday night.

Schale is optimistic, but don't think it had anything to do with the trajectory. More to do with having 70% of the vote counted almost instantaneously because it was already banked.

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so.....and we even beat 2012.

happy everyone?

Eh, 2012 levels wasn't enough to save Berkley and I believe that's a lower percentage given the registration numbers have increased.

But still great. Didn't Obama have a 71k early vote lead there in 1012? Will come close with another strong day tomorrow.

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VA is gone (of course):

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No surprises there.

I really wonder why the campaign is deploying Tim Kaine there on Monday.  Is the election so in the  bag that they can allow for a narrative stop instead of a GOTV stop?

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Sorry to burst your red avatar orgy here, but here's the reality on CO right now. Republicans pulled ahead with Early voters. Magellan may be a questionable pollster, but they are usually good about releasing the Early Vote stuff in CO ahead of the SoS.

Romney won early vote by 2 in CO. He lost the state by five points. In being tied, Trump is doing worse than Romney already.

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Ralston says the 71k edge from 2012 could be matched. Assume it's locked on the presidential side.

What's odd for me is that he's been more positive for CCM than he was for Berkeley. Why? Heller still managed to win despite that margin to overcome.

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Wow.

Haven't seen this confirmed, but makes sense. Matches O's lead in 2012 when he won by 6.7. Of course, Heller won by 1.2% in the same circumstance.

Edit:

Ralston confirm

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