absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[Devout Centrist]

Update from Ralston:

http://www.ktnv.com/news/ralston/the-nevada-early-voting-blog

Here's the lead:

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1980 redux inbound.

[Devout Centrist]

I'm not shrugging them off, i'm just saying they are hacks. I've stated constantly on here that according to early vote Nevada is lean D or likely D. You can't ignore the numbers. But I can ignore people like Ralston saying "until cows come home" basically offending all rural voters. I'm sick of these guys so offended by Trump and in essence same like himm. Also, Schale having a twitter erection two days ago and after that we've seen actual returns and actualy Republicans won that day. So i don't doubt data i'm just doubting their "objective" expectations.

Wow, you're offended over a common idiom?!

'The cows come home' isn't directed at rural people, it's an idiomatic phrase that means he's waiting for people. 'Until the cows come home' means a very long time.

Is English your first language? If it is, there's no excuse for this deliberate nonsense.

[Devout Centrist]

Note that unaffiliateds in FL are heavy Hispanic, which can only be good news overall with this humongous spike in turnout of Hispanic voters.

The GOP is primed to be triggered by Hugh Mungus. Hugh Mungus Latino turnout!

[Devout Centrist]

Trump would have to win the ED vote by 20% to win the state (NC). Think about that for a moment.

Here's the reference from PPP 4 years ago on the early vote:

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/11/florida-and-north-carolina-going-down-to-the-wire.html#more

So HRC has a much wider lead going into ED with a similar ground game facing no ground game. Sounds wonderful.

And Trump's got no ground game.

[Devout Centrist]

So if their early vote numbers are true, then according to CNN, Hillary will lose the election, and according to PPP, she'll win it.  Which are we to believe?

The one without pundits.

[Devout Centrist]

Florida top line numbers out yet? How much do Dems outpace R's by now?

[Devout Centrist]

Aren't the CO numbers a bit odd to you as well ?

Only 1.66 million ballots have been returned so far and there are only Monday and Tuesday left to return ballots.

Final turnout in 2012 was 2.6 million.

It's pretty unlikely that there are 300K returned on Monday and Tuesday, when it was 100-150K each day now.

That suggests turnout will be much lower in CO this year, somwhere between 2-2.5 million votes (unless there's a surge of election day voters).

Mail-ins surge in the final days. Anecdotally, people here are very lazy.

[Devout Centrist]

What does Ralston say the absolute percentage of D voters relative to 2016? As red avatars were so fond of reminding us in 2012, many Independents are actually Republicans disgusted with the party's leadership (i.e. prime targets for Trump).

There's a huge difference between self identified independents in polls and the actual registered independents.

That being said, the OP is relying on Trump overperforming Romney with independents and Clinton only winning 82 (!) percent of Democrats. That math is nothing short of Dick Morris level insanity.

[Devout Centrist]

CNN poll showed Trump carrying Indies 2-1 (58-29) but that's almost impossible. Romney carried it 50-43 so he would need to outperform him by let's say 20 points. I don't believe it's possible.

CNN's "poll" also put Trump ahead in Clark County (!).

[Devout Centrist]

If Trump gets 3% more D crossover votes than Hillary gets crossover Rs, and wins Independents by 10%, he is ahead. If he gets less of both in some combination, Clinton is ahead.

That's an unrealistic swing from 2012.

[Devout Centrist]

Guyz here me out, MA is up 2000% voting this year and we dont know if these are Dems. Trump winning? maybeeeeee

#TRUMPSLIDE

[Devout Centrist]

Texas ain't going Dem, but it will trend that way.

[Devout Centrist]

Dr. Michael Bitzer ‏@BowTiePolitics  5h5 hours ago
NC absentee voters by party & generation: definitely see unaffiliated voters more Millennial & GenX than partisans



Taniel ‏@Taniel  3m3 minutes ago
Few states provide demographic information like NC's; but this suggests analyses of gap between registered partisans could miss some shifts.

And Unaff's have soared in NC, even more so than Republicans.

[Devout Centrist]

The cherrypicking is unreal.

Absentee voting in Michigan has always heavily favored Republicans and Democrats win on the election day vote.

Keeep ignoring the fact that Black voters in Detroit / FL / NC and other places aren't coming out.
A 33% decline compared to 2012 doesn't happen by accident, while the rest of the state has seen increases.

You're the one banking on Trump overperforming Romney with Independents and somehow Clinton doing substantially worse than Trump with her base.

[Devout Centrist]

41,214,095 votes now cast. 5,006,827 votes away from passing 2012's total advance votes.

Wait I thought it was only 32 million early votes in 2012.

[Devout Centrist]

So the final number we have publicly available before election night might be 14 million votes smaller than reality? In that case, based on the rate we're going, early vote % could very well be 50% of the total.

Or we have YUUUUUGE turnout.

[Devout Centrist]

IIRC, Black share of the early voters was 29% in 2012 and it's 23% today. It's a massive drop-off.

yeah BUT

most of it has nothing do with blacks decreasing in a significant way.....but everyone else voting the hell out of it.

I've been hearing Dems use this talking point over and over, and it's incredibly disingenuous.

Of course overall turnout in raw numbers is going to be up, since 1. NC population has been growing very fast, and 2. early voting becomes more and more popular. If Blacks are barely even with their 2012 numbers, it means their actual propensity to vote is way down. And that's the problem. Raw numbers are meaningless in and of themselves.

-UnAff's that break Dem are up tremendously
-Clinton is doing better than Obama with Whites
-Latinos are soaring

[Devout Centrist]

You poor fool. Look, the White vote has surged in NC, but a large chunk of HRC's coalition this year is the educated White vote, which NC has a very decent chunk of, especially in the critical triangle area. A surge in the White vote could mean anything depending on the break down.

But here's a really damning number for you. The Unaff voters are overwhelming women, more educated, urban, and young, all part of HRCs coalition, and that has surged way beyond the R number could ever hope to equal if demographic projections come through. Of course, you just like covering your eyes and seeing it how you want, and then lob personal insults at other people. That just reveals how incapable of understanding this you are and the lack of confidence in your #analysis.

Can you give a concrete numbers compared to 2012 that show that? The diff among UFA is not THAT big IIRC.

Purple line

Looks good to me, especially since millennials like myself usually opt for UnAff.

[Devout Centrist]

YouGov said among the 63% in FL that voted, it's 51-41 lead for Hillary. That lead may slightly expand after today.

Trump would have to crush her on Tuesday to overcome that.

And this is what's terrifying for Trump: He's got not GOTV and working class White turnout isn't exactly stellar as it stands.

[Devout Centrist]

High turnout doesn't necessarily mean it's all good for Hillary/Dems.

An analysis of the Austrian Presidential election found that VdB (the leftist candidate) did very well in high turnout districts, but also Hofer (the far-right candidate): In fact, there were some districts with 80%+ turnout which voted with 60%+ for VdB, but also 80%+ turnout districts which voted with 60%+ for Hofer ...

Also remember that Trump did rather well in the high turnout primaries.

Please stop comparing the US to Austria.

I hate it when people try to compare America to Denmark, I don't like the reverse either.

[Devout Centrist]

There's also another similarity between the Austrian and the coming US election that you cannot deny:

Hofer (who's actually the far-right candidate) did very well in rural, formerly heavy industrial/mining Social-Democratic voting areas. Much like Trump does in former heavily Democratic-voting states, such as WV/KY/TN/AR and the likes.

VdB on the other hand won some rural areas that voted heavily Conservative in the 1980s, much like some US conservatives are now abandoning Trump in states like UT, VA, CO etc.

This trend has been going on for over 20 years and isn't exactly new or recent.

[Devout Centrist]

College educated whites are ground zero for any "shy Trump" effect.

Along with Hispanics, American-Indians and suburban women, yes.

Turnout seems to be really, really lagging in Native American-dominated counties. Not sure it'll matter a whole lot, but it is interesting.

I think he meant Americans of Indian descent.

[Devout Centrist]

Early voting should be illegal.  What's the point of even having an election day anymore?  Let's just make it election month for lazy Americans.

I'm glad you're not within a mile of the instruments of power in this nation.