absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[Ozymandias]

Decent summary for those who haven't been following thread(s) closely...

Slate: "Millions of Americans Have Already Voted. So Who’s Winning?"

http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2016/11/01/who_s_ahead_in_early_voting.html?wpsrc=sh_all_tab_tw_ru

[Ozymandias]

Thanks. So the next question is, why on earth do the Secretary of States have this information? When you vote, you just put a cross in a piece of paper, no? - you surely don't have to state the colour of your skin? Racial profiling, yuck....

If states don't collect racial demographic info, then it becomes harder to determine when minority voters are disenfranchised, which unfortunately continues to occur all too often here in the States.

[Ozymandias]

Here's the current state-by-state breakdown of the "Advance" (= Absentee/Mail-in + Early In-Person) vote.

The election is already more than half over in AZ, NV, & FL-- and perhaps CO & NC too by the end of the day...

State 2016 Advance Vote / 2012 Total Vote = Percentage
USA   31,191,741   /   128,925,332   =   24.19%
AZ   1,370,746   /   2,298,802   =   59.63%
TN   1,403,731   /   2,458,577   =   57.10%
NV   561,813   /   1,014,918   =   55.36%
FL   4,466,624   /   8,474,134   =   52.71%
CO   1,217,166   /   2,569,516   =   47.37%
NC   2,098,045   /   4,493,301   =   46.69%
OR   809,984   /   1,775,995   =   45.61%
MT   220,316   /   483,932   =   45.53%
GA   1,708,490   /   3,897,839   =   43.83%
TX   3,311,159   /   7,991,197   =   41.44%
WA   1,235,614   /   3,125,516   =   39.53%
NM   294,537   /   783,758   =   37.58%
AR   342,683   /   1,069,468   =   32.04%
IA   472,085   /   1,574,738   =   29.98%
UT   284,841   /   1,017,401   =   28.00%
MD   703,399   /   2,697,018   =   26.08%
LA   515,181   /   1,994,065   =   25.84%
CA   3,329,133   /   13,015,298   =   25.58%
ID   144,872   /   652,274   =   22.21%
MA   700,000   /   3,161,215   =   22.14%
ME   155,554   /   711,053   =   21.88%
HI   91,400   /   434,539   =   21.03%
KS   242,043   /   1,158,833   =   20.89%
ND   65,466   /   321,072   =   20.39%
SD   73,446   /   363,815   =   20.19%
DC   57,865   /   292,992   =   19.75%
OH   1,054,912   /   5,580,715   =   18.90%
NE   148,634   /   790,662   =   18.80%
WI   567,663   /   3,063,064   =   18.53%
MI   854,921   /   4,722,988   =   18.10%
IN   472,707   /   2,623,541   =   18.02%
WV   116,561   /   670,438   =   17.39%
WY   40,332   /   247,026   =   16.33%
VT   44,968   /   297,247   =   15.13%
SC   267,007   /   1,964,118   =   13.59%
IL   708,976   /   5,241,179   =   13.53%
AK   36,229   /   297,625   =   12.17%
VA   341,480   /   3,847,243   =   8.88%
MN   250,123   /   2,925,920   =   8.55%
OK   63,981   /   1,334,872   =   4.79%
NJ   172,013   /   3,638,499   =   4.73%
KY   73,335   /   1,796,832   =   4.08%
DE   16,352   /   413,890   =   3.95%
RI   14,285   /   444,668   =   3.21%
MO   55,503   /   2,757,323   =   2.01%
MS   13,167   /   1,285,584   =   1.02%
AL   2,399   /   2,070,327   =   0.12%
CT   0   /   1,558,132   =   0.00%
NH   0   /   708,399   =   0.00%
NY   0   /   7,071,734   =   0.00%
PA   0   /   5,742,040   =   0.00%

Source: http://www.electproject.org/early_2016

[Ozymandias]

so about 70% give or take of the total votes casted for the election will be on election day.

No, the pace is well ahead of 2012, when the early vote was 36% of the total.

I think at least 40% of the total vote will be cast before election day,  and it might even be closer to 50% than 40%.

[Ozymandias]

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  3h3 hours ago Washington, DC
Important for understanding voter reg trends: Clinton has a 42-21 lead among new unaffiliated voters in PA/FL/NC: https://t.co/L2WZ7kR1wL

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  3h3 hours ago Washington, DC
The number of young voters in NC early voting is surging (normal near end of early vote). Yesterday was youngest week-day yet: avg age of 50

[Ozymandias]

Nick Riccardi ‏@NickRiccardi  8m8 minutes ago Denver, CO
One thing I've been watching carefully in CO early vote: Age. Young CO voters cast ballots late. A lot still to come #copolitics



Nick Riccardi ‏@NickRiccardi  9m9 minutes ago Denver, CO
This is from the invaluable @MagellanStrat breakdown of Colorado early votes

[Ozymandias]

Marc Caputo ‏@MarcACaputo  9m9 minutes ago
A number that should scare Trump in re: early/absentee FL vote: 54.6%. That's % of WOMEN who have voted. Women break strongly for Hillary

[Ozymandias]

Not sure if this has been posted already, but it has a lot of nice graphs about NC early voters:

http://www.oldnorthstatepolitics.com/

[Ozymandias]

Steve Schale ‏@steveschale  4m4 minutes ago Florida, USA
Had this hunch that the GOP FL early vote numbers were a bit inflated by some old N. FL Dems who were Dem EV voters in 12, but switched 1/

Steve Schale ‏@steveschale  1m1 minute ago Florida, USA
Turns out almost 50k of GOP EV in 16 were Dem EV in 12. I'd be surprised if more than 1-2k of them had voted Dem since 1964 or 76. 2/2

[Ozymandias]

Steve Schale ‏@steveschale  4m4 minutes ago Florida, USA
Had this hunch that the GOP FL early vote numbers were a bit inflated by some old N. FL Dems who were Dem EV voters in 12, but switched 1/

Steve Schale ‏@steveschale  1m1 minute ago Florida, USA
Turns out almost 50k of GOP EV in 16 were Dem EV in 12. I'd be surprised if more than 1-2k of them had voted Dem since 1964 or 76. 2/2

That means we need 50K less of a lead than Obama in 2012 to win FL, even taking into account Cubans swinging our way and non-affiliated Puerto Ricans voting Democratic

Doesn't it actually work out to 100k less?

Let's say in 2012 there were (totally making up these numbers) 2.0 million Dems and 1.9 million Reps voting early, or +100K Dems.

And if all of them also voted early in 2016, then the margin would now be tied at 1.95M Dems and Reps each.

So 2016 Dems would look like they were running 100K behind the 2012 margin when in fact they were even.

[Ozymandias]

daniel a. smith ‏@electionsmith  5m5 minutes ago
Exclusive: Who are the 412k Floridians who've already voted who registered after the 2012 presidential election?

https://electionsmith.wordpress.com/2016/11/03/of-the-more-than-1-1-million-floridians-who-have-cast-ballots-as-of-this-morning-412k/

[Ozymandias]

I saw this-- it was pretty good. Ralston's a fast talker...

Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports  4m4 minutes ago
I answered 20 minutes of questions today on Facebook about those NV early voting numbers. Some great questions.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hiKfDL_Mlho

[Ozymandias]

TargetSmart ‏@_TargetSmart  4m4 minutes ago
Early vote has broken the 30 million number mark nationally. Take a dive into the numbers in this week's Smartshot →

http://targetsmart.com/news-item/smartshot-30-million-americans-have-early-voted/

"But the biggest surprise to us is how many Newly Registered (registered since November 4th, 2014) have used early voting as the means to cast their first votes: a substantial 14%."

[Ozymandias]

daniel a. smith ‏@electionsmith  2h2 hours ago
Other growing news re FL 2016 early turnout is that some 50k votes cast by those who registered Oct 1-18 (extended book closing)

[Ozymandias]

PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls  3m3 minutes ago Raleigh, NC
In Nevada we found Hillary leading 54/44 among early voters

PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls  28m28 minutes ago Raleigh, NC
In North Carolina we found Hillary leading 59/40 among early voters

PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls  28m28 minutes ago Raleigh, NC
In Wisconsin we found Hillary leading 60/34 among early voters

[Ozymandias]

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  21m21 minutes ago Washington, DC
We gave our September poll of Florida to four pollsters, and got four different results. Here's how the early vote stacks up so far



Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  19m19 minutes ago Washington, DC
The Florida early vote has steadily been getting more diverse, too. I expect that will continue

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  18m18 minutes ago Washington, DC
My guess is that @PatrickRuffini will have the most 'accurate' electorate of the 4 pollsters that used our sample. We'll see

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  18m18 minutes ago Washington, DC
As is the case with our NC estimates, the main takeaway is that the turnout is largely going as expected

[Ozymandias]

Don't the outstanding ballots among likely voters skew younger? If so, CO is a lock for her.

18-24: ALL (23%), ALREADY VOTED (18%), NOT YET VOTED (34%)
35-49: ALL (23%), ALREADY VOTED (20%), NOT YET VOTED (29%)
50-64: ALL (29%), ALREADY VOTED (31%), NOT YET VOTED (27%)
65+: ALL (25%), ALREADY VOTED (31%), NOT YET VOTED (11%)

https://salsa3.salsalabs.com/o/50742/images/Keating%20Research-Onsight%20Colorado%20Election%20Track%20November%202-3%202016%20XTABS%20For%20Release.pdf

[Ozymandias]

Sam Stein ‏@samsteinhp  3h3 hours ago
More latinos have voted in Florida as of now than in the entire 2012 election, Clinton campaign says

[Ozymandias]

Steve Schale ‏@steveschale  2m2 minutes ago
Yesterday I tweeted Wed was record day for Black turnout in Florida.  Well it was.

Thursday was better. 
62,500 votes
Up to 12.2% share

[Ozymandias]

The 2016 Advance (mail + early in-person) vote is now up to almost 30% of the 2012 Total (Advance + Election Day) vote (source: http://www.electproject.org/early_2016).

State: 2016 Advance Vote / 2012 Total Vote = Percentage
USA   38,410,981   /   128,925,332   =   29.79%
TN   1,675,679   /   2,458,577   =   68.16%
AZ   1,560,159   /   2,298,802   =   67.87%
NV   680,278   /   1,014,918   =   67.03%
FL   5,267,750   /   8,474,134   =   62.16%
CO   1,553,325   /   2,569,516   =   60.45%
OR   1,054,056   /   1,775,995   =   59.35%
WA   1,694,344   /   3,125,516   =   54.21%
GA   2,111,543   /   3,897,839   =   54.17%
MT   253,528   /   483,932   =   52.39%
NC   2,337,899   /   4,493,301   =   52.03%
TX   4,006,732   /   7,991,197   =   50.14%
UT   480,356   /   1,017,401   =   47.21%
AR   501,452   /   1,069,468   =   46.89%
NM   359,980   /   783,758   =   45.93%
IA   565,393   /   1,574,738   =   35.90%
MD   967,410   /   2,697,018   =   35.87%
ND   105,163   /   321,072   =   32.75%
KS   375,858   /   1,158,833   =   32.43%
CA   4,193,725   /   13,015,298   =   32.22%
ME   216,974   /   711,053   =   30.51%
DC   82,826   /   292,992   =   28.27%
WV   183,920   /   670,438   =   27.43%
ID   175,132   /   652,274   =   26.85%
LA   521,325   /   1,994,065   =   26.14%
IN   637,706   /   2,623,541   =   24.31%
IL   1,260,208   /   5,241,179   =   24.04%
WI   685,644   /   3,063,064   =   22.38%
MA   700,000   /   3,161,215   =   22.14%
SD   78,635   /   363,815   =   21.61%
NE   170,623   /   790,662   =   21.58%
HI   91,400   /   434,539   =   21.03%
SC   400,190   /   1,964,118   =   20.38%
OH   1,054,912   /   5,580,715   =   18.90%
MI   854,921   /   4,722,988   =   18.10%
WY   40,332   /   247,026   =   16.33%
VT   44,968   /   297,247   =   15.13%
OK   197,191   /   1,334,872   =   14.77%
MN   415,986   /   2,925,920   =   14.22%
AK   40,372   /   297,625   =   13.56%
VA   431,680   /   3,847,243   =   11.22%
DE   22,387   /   413,890   =   5.41%
NJ   172,013   /   3,638,499   =   4.73%
KY   73,335   /   1,796,832   =   4.08%
RI   16,793   /   444,668   =   3.78%
NH   25,809   /   708,399   =   3.64%
MO   55,503   /   2,757,323   =   2.01%
MS   13,167   /   1,285,584   =   1.02%
AL   2,399   /   2,070,327   =   0.12%
CT   0   /   1,558,132   =   0.00%
NY   0   /   7,071,734   =   0.00%
PA   0   /   5,742,040   =   0.00%

[Ozymandias]

Huge turnout day in Miami Dade.  42,810 EIP voters, by far biggest turnout to date.

http://www.miamidade.gov/elections/library/reports/2016-11-08-general-election-daily-early-voting-report.pdf

Huge spike. Up 7K from yesterday. Trump's goose is starting to get cooked

Steve Schale with comparison to 2012

https://twitter.com/MDCElections/status/794719228653879296

Wow

[Ozymandias]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Wow.

Haven't seen this confirmed, but makes sense. Matches O's lead in 2012 when he won by 6.7. Of course, Heller won by 1.2% in the same circumstance.

They updated the official numbers at NV SOS:

http://nvsos.gov/sos/elections/voters/election-turnout-statistics

[Ozymandias]

Here are the current statewide numbers (which will change very slightly when the few remaining rural counties report Fri numbers):

Dems: 323,466 (42.2%)
Reps: 277,417 (36.1%)
Other: 166,532 (21.7%)
TOTAL: 767,415 (equal to 8.8% increase over 2012 EV)

So Dems have the exact same 42-36 = 6% edge over Reps that they had in 2012.

Source: http://nvsos.gov/sos/elections/voters/election-turnout-statistics


 

[Ozymandias]

Here are the current statewide numbers (which will change very slightly when the few remaining rural counties report Fri numbers):

Dems: 323,466 (42.2%)
Reps: 277,417 (36.1%)
Other: 166,532 (21.7%)
TOTAL: 767,415 (equal to 8.8% increase over 2012 EV)

So Dems have the exact same 42-36 = 6% edge over Reps that they had in 2012.




 

Interesting thing - if the "others" break by the 54-27 that CNN poll had them breaking the race is bascially tie right now... (Not saying they will, that's a weird number historically and demographically for NV, but it's an odd math quirk that that split will bring it back close.)

I think you're confusing self-identified independents and actual registered "Others", who tend to be younger and less white than the average electorate in most states, which is why most polls generally have "Others" trending Democratic by 10-20 points.

[Ozymandias]

PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls  2h2 hours ago
Our polling has basically found everyone voting for Hillary voting for Cortez Masto too- different dynamic from 2012 on ticket splitting