absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[BoAtlantis]

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/03/upshot/early-vote-in-north-carolina-seems-to-confirm-a-clinton-lead.html

Registration Shifts Drive Apparent Turnout Shifts

"The turnout among registered Democrats is down. The turnout among registered Republicans is up." Well, there’s a pretty straightforward reason for that: The number of registered Democrats in North Carolina has declined since 2012. The number of registered Republicans has ticked up.

Over all, the number of registered Democrats has declined by 5.1 percent. The number of early voters who were registered Democrats has dipped by 3.1 percent — so the Democratic turnout hasn’t dropped as much as the number of registered Democrats.

Republican turnout has increased by more than the increase in Republican registration, but mainly because reliable Republican voters are turning out in greater numbers. As a result, we expected the Democratic registration edge to decline from 11 to 8 percentage points heading into the early vote."

Unaffiliated

"The big number of unaffiliated voters, however, makes it more important to try to figure out which way they lean. Their demographic characteristics are conflicting: On the one hand, they’re disproportionately white. On the other, they’re disproportionately young, urban, newly registered and born outside of the state."

"In our poll of early voters, Mrs. Clinton has a 49-39 lead among unaffiliated voters who have cast ballots. Mr. Trump has only a 10-point lead, 47 percent to 37 percent, among unaffiliated white voters."

[BoAtlantis]

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/north-carolina-early-vote-tracker.html

NC Status as of 10/28

                         Clinton       Trump       Clinton     Trump
Already voted     686,000    462,000      56.7%     38.2% (18.5% gap)
Yet to vote        1,491,000   1,440,000    46.4%   44.8%
Total estimates   2,177,000   1,903,000   49.2%   43.0%

NC Status as of 10/30

                        Clinton      Trump       Clinton     Trump
Already voted     878,000   653,000      54.9%    40.8% (14.1% gap)
Yet to vote        1,316,000   1,256,000   46.3%    44.2%
Total estimates   2,194,000   1,909,000   49.4%   43.0%   

NC Status as of 11/2

                      Clinton       Trump          Clinton   Trump
Already voted   1,110,000   897,000      52.9%   42.7% (10.2% gap)
Yet to vote        1,094,000   1,045,000    45.7%   43.7%
Total estimates   2,203,000   1,941,000   49.1%   43.2%

[BoAtlantis]

"Exclusive: Evidence that Democrats are Beginning to Ramp up GOTV in SE Florida (Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach), where Clinton Needs to Turn out Democrats & NPAs"

https://electionsmith.wordpress.com/2016/11/02/exclusive-evidence-that-democrats-are-beginning-to-ramp-up-gotv-in-se-florida-miami-dade-broward-palm-beach-where-clinton-needs-to-turn-out-democrats-npas/

[BoAtlantis]

Nate Cohn

"Our estimate for the age 18-29 share of the electorate in NC has fallen much more (-.6%) than black turnout (< -.1%)"

[BoAtlantis]

Are FL Puerto Ricans voting?  Yes.

% of EV Hispanics with no previous voting history:

Statewide: 23%
Polk: 32%
Osceola: 31%
Orange: 29%

[BoAtlantis]

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/11/2/1589828/-Colorado-Early-Vote-Numbers-by-Day-2-November-2

Colorado EV #'s in a graph

[BoAtlantis]

Any raw numbers out of Texas?

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/11/2/1588855/-Texas-Votes-Day-9-Dia-de-Muertos-to-the-Polls?_=2016-11-02T07:39:37.113-07:00

This is the closest one I could find.

[BoAtlantis]

The early vote numbers in North Carolina have been insane the last day or two. So much for African Americans not voting.

Do we have numbers or, even better, graphs?

Yup

http://www.oldnorthstatepolitics.com/?m=0

[BoAtlantis]

The early vote numbers in North Carolina have been insane the last day or two. So much for African Americans not voting.

Do we have numbers or, even better, graphs?

Yup

http://www.oldnorthstatepolitics.com/?m=0

Looking good! The fact that there has been a huge spike of unaffiliateds, and they are majority women is a really good sign.

Yup, Per Nate Cohn

"The big number of unaffiliated voters, however, makes it more important to try to figure out which way they lean. Their demographic characteristics are conflicting: On the one hand, they’re disproportionately white. On the other, they’re disproportionately young, urban, newly registered and born outside of the state."

[BoAtlantis]

http://steveschale.com/

Steve Schale

Few takeaways from him

Total Ballots cast:   4,687,113
Total Vote By Mail:  2,273,978 (46.7%)
Total Early Vote:  2,593,135 (53.3%)

Republicans:  1,948,126 (40.0%)
Democrats:  1,936,240 (39.8%)
NPA:  769,241 (20.2%)

Total Margin:  GOP +0.22%

Hillsborough:

It was a very good day for Democrats in Hillsborough.  Almost 25K ballots were processed today, and Dems won the day by 1,400 votes, carrying both the VBM returns and the in-person vote.  Also, NPA made up 25.5% of all votes today, as Dems maintain their 6 point edge over the GOP (+18,600).

There is a Hispanic surge happening here. 26% of Hispanic voters so far have no voting history, compared to 13% for both whites and blacks.

Metro Orlando

In the two Obama wins, the President carried them by a margin of roughly 100,000 votes -- a nearly 122,000 vote margin improvement for the Democrats.

Seminole: 43R-35D-22NPA – Total: +8,907R (Yesterday: 41R-33D-26NPA)
Orange: 47D-30R-23NPA – Total +46,974D (Yesterday: 46D-28R-28NPA)
Osceola: 48D-28R-24NPA – Total +15,430D (Yesterday: 46D-24R-30NPA)

Duval

More than 20,000 people voted yesterday, mostly through in-person early voting, which the Democrats won, leading to the Dems winning the day by about 100 votes. Not a ton, but succeeding in keeping the margin in check.  The GOP margin now stands at 1.3 (43.2R-41.9D).

Additional notes:

"The electorate continues to get more diverse.  Through the Sunday vote, Hispanics are now 14% of the votes so far, with Black voters (African American and Caribbean) at 11.8. White is down to 69.  Keep in mind, it was 67 in 2012, and it has come down from 71 in just a few days.

One last piece, because I don’t think it has gotten the attention it deserves:  the Republican early leads have been built, not completely, but in part by cannibalizing their own Election Day vote.

In 2016, they have gotten a larger share – and number of their traditional Election Day voters to vote early, which has left an interesting scenario:  Democrats have more “2012 voters” left to vote than do Republicans."

[BoAtlantis]

Tom Bonier

"OH: Cuyahoga and Franklin continue to surge back to '12 levels. Chart shows share of EV/AV relative to '12 final share from 10/20 to 11/2."

[BoAtlantis]

NC early voting



Unaffiliated #'s are staggering.

[BoAtlantis]

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/11/03/1590528/-Columbus-OH-early-vote-update-on-track-to-top-2012

"Yesterday’s (Nov. 2) in-person early vote total in Columbus of 5,383 was the largest yet this year. This was the day after Pres. Obama fired up thousands at a GOTV rally in Columbus suburb Bexley.

So far in the 18 days of early voting there have been 56,976 in-person early votes compared to 33,378 in 2012, a 70% increase. There are three fewer early voting days in 2016, but the increased rate will likely more than make up for that shortfall. In 2012 there were 69,112 in-person early votes in the end, about 12% of ballots cast.

If the remaining 5 days of early vote in the county match the final 5 days in 2012, the end total would be 80,440, a 16% increase over 2012. The total will probably top that, as the daily totals have been significantly stronger than 2012 in general."

[BoAtlantis]

"High turnout hurts Trump. Newly registered and "missing" voters back Clinton by a wide margin in Upshot/Siena polls. "

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/04/upshot/donald-trump-cant-count-on-those-missing-white-voters.html?_r=0

[BoAtlantis]

http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2016/11/03/are-ohio-republicans-beating-dems-at-their-own-early-voting-game.html

Ohio

- Republicans think they're behind 70K behind in early voting, half the gap vs 2012
- Republicans claim they're getting more low propensity voters vs Democrats
- In Democratic Cuyahoga County, Democrats are down 25% vs 2012, and Republicans up 13%
- In Republican Butler County, Democrats up 68%, Republicans only up 28%
- In Republican Delaware County, Democrats up 92%, vs Republicans up 50%

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/792389294405087236

"15% of the OH vote thus far has come from people who did not vote in '12. That universe is +4% Dem. GOP is turning out likely voters."

Not according to Tom Bonier, unless Republicans have taken the lead on low-propensity voters recently.

[BoAtlantis]

Tom Bonier on FL

"FL: GOP early voters are better educated than non-EV GOP. 31.6% of GOP EVs graduated from college, as compared to 24.6% of non voting GOPs. This is consistent with the high rate of GOP crossover we see in our latest survey in FL, as better educated GOP are stronger for Clinton."

"Younger GOP voters are not coming out (yet). 46% of GOP EV/AV are over the age of 65 (snowbirds?), compared to 26% of non-voting GOPers."

"Finally, the GOP AV/EV share is higher among women. 52.1% of GOP turnout thus far is from women, compared to 49.8% of non voting GOP."

[BoAtlantis]

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/794263573073690624

Obama at Duval to encourage early voting.

Look at the crowd enthusiasm.

[BoAtlantis]

This doesn't really belong here, but I don't know where to put it. I don't have much thought on it yet, but it's worth a read/think (long tweet storm):

https://twitter.com/PatrickRuffini/status/794259488664649732

My takeaway from YouGov is this.

"We consider it almost certain that Clinton was never as far ahead as many published polls suggested at the high points of the campaign, and equally that she has not lost as much by recent events as some published polls suggest. The truth is more boring: real change mostly happens slowly, and the impact of campaign events is much less than the media makes out."

Essentially, she has never led by 12% and she has never trailed. The real lead is around 3-6%.
It's why it's important to equally consider polls in the past as well and not just the most recent ones.

[BoAtlantis]

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/794263573073690624

Obama at Duval to encourage early voting.

Look at the crowd enthusiasm.

#Theraceto13%

[BoAtlantis]

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/11/2/1589828/-Colorado-Early-Vote-Numbers-by-Day-2-November-2

Colorado EV #'s in a graph

CO as of 11/3/16



Republicans narrowed the gap but the remaining unaffiliated voters probably skew Democrats.

[BoAtlantis]

"FL: 21.1% of AV/EV Dems didn't vote in '12, compared to 19.1% of AV/EV GOPs. As '12 represents a strong base, that's significant for Dems."

[BoAtlantis]

Steve Schale:
"Well the ex-boss comes to #DUUUVAL today & what happens???
Biggest single day of in-person early voting."


I hope to see some good news tomorrow.

[BoAtlantis]

Schale is excited...crediting Obama for Duval today as he was in Jax:

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/794321677014487040

Dems won Duval by 153 votes and reduced the GOP party ID advantage to 1.1%

Holy Broward County. Almost 40k votes. D's go almost +14k. Now have 161k margin.
Bellwether Hillsborough had biggest in-person early day since day 1. Dems go +1400
Overall lead in Hillsborough goes to 20k.

[BoAtlantis]

Schale is excited...crediting Obama for Duval today as he was in Jax:

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/794321677014487040

Dems won Duval by 153 votes and reduced the GOP party ID advantage to 1.1%

Holy Broward County. Almost 40k votes. D's go almost +14k. Now have 161k margin.
Bellwether Hillsborough had biggest in-person early day since day 1. Dems go +1400
Overall lead in Hillsborough goes to 20k.

I'll be super surprised if Hillary loses Florida. Democrats are doing very well.

Me too. I hope Democrats keep returning those mail ballots. They have tons of outstanding ones.

[BoAtlantis]

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/north-carolina-early-vote-tracker.html

NC Status as of 10/28

                         Clinton       Trump       Clinton     Trump
Already voted     686,000    462,000      56.7%     38.2% (18.5% gap)
Yet to vote        1,491,000   1,440,000    46.4%   44.8%
Total estimates   2,177,000   1,903,000   49.2%   43.0%

NC Status as of 10/30

                        Clinton      Trump       Clinton     Trump
Already voted     878,000   653,000      54.9%    40.8% (14.1% gap)
Yet to vote        1,316,000   1,256,000   46.3%    44.2%
Total estimates   2,194,000   1,909,000   49.4%   43.0%   

NC Status as of 11/2

                      Clinton       Trump          Clinton   Trump
Already voted   1,110,000   897,000      52.9%   42.7% (10.2% gap)
Yet to vote        1,094,000   1,045,000    45.7%   43.7%
Total estimates   2,203,000   1,941,000   49.1%   43.2%

NC Status as of 11/3
                       Clinton         Trump           Clinton   Trump
Already voted   1,235,000   1,003,000   52.8%   42.9% (9.9% gap)
Yet to vote           995,000   952,000         45.4%   43.5%
Total estimates   2,229,000   1,955,000   49.2%   43.2%